Zaybay
Junior Chimp
Posts: 6,065
Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50
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« on: June 25, 2018, 10:30:16 PM » |
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Im going against the grain here and disagreeing that Wisconsin will be the most Republican. In fact, I believe it will be the most Democratic by 2028. Lets look at Wisconsin.
Wisconsin 2012
Wisconsin 2016 and Supreme Court 2018
So as we can see, a lot of Blue was lost in 2016 and regained in 2018. This region is called the driftless and it makes up most of western Wisconsin. It swung heavily towards the Rs, but swung to the Ds in 2018. This implies that the region is not strongly trending R but rather a swing region that goes with the Ds most of the time, but goes for populists as well. But lets say this region is trending strongly R and the Dems have only the urban areas of Madison and Milwaukee left. The thing is, however, that that is really all they need. Dane county, which holds Madison, is the fastest growing county in all of Wisconsin, and has gotten more blue overtime. Its highly probable that in 2028, this region would be able to hold the state at lean D, with or without the driftless region.
Now lets take a look at the other two states, without maps, since I don't want to take up too much space.
Pennsylvania has 3 regions. The Western WWC Pittsburgh area, the central "Pennsyltucky" region, and the suburban and metropolitan eastern region. The GOP holds the center and is gaining in the west, with Pittsburgh being one of the only cities trending R, but the East is growing exponentially, compared to the rest of the state. Add to that the swingyness of WWC voters, and you have a recipe for a tilt D state.
Finally, Michigan, and in my opinion, the most Republican state by 2028, for it lacks the one thing that keeps the other states in the D camp, a growing urban center. Michigan has Detroit, and that's it. You can argue it has Flint or Grand Rapids, but Detroit is the hub and center of the state. And its declining. Detroit has been losing population, and while its not anymore, its not gaining any more people, which is what keeps Wisconsin and Penn. D. This leaves the rest of the state to keep the democrats afloat and, while it is WWC, I'm unsure if it will be able to provide the swing needed later down the line. The suburbs in Michigan, which are growing, are also very R friendly, similarly to the famous Milwaukee suburbs that need to really count their votes quicker. But while Wisconsin has the Dane suburbs to counteract that, Michigan doesn't. So, with the way things are currently going, the state of Michigan will be the one to fall to the Rs.
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