UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1154782412557168643

MP for the 19th Century strikes again!

[Oryxslayer]

Field's announcement is that he is forming a new party, the "Birkenhead Social Justice Party", and will stand in the next election under this label.

Slightly underwhelming announcement given the speculation that preceded it.

In particular the Brexit Party seemed to have real hopes that he might become one of theirs.

... or at least their media cheerleaders did.  I'm a little bit suspicious that F*r*g* doesn't want high profile defections after his experience with Douglas Carswell.

This gets to the question of what the brexit party really is. If he was looking for a longer lasting thing, he would want defectors (admitedly, less are available since to tories keep giving into the ERG) but if its supposed to remain a personality party with no chance at number 10 then he would not want defectors to steal his thunder. If the parties goal was to change the debate on Brexit then they have already succeeded: May is gone, Boris is an ally, and the Tories want to leave in October no matter what.

So we have to ask, what does farage want from this Breixt party project right now, as they start to slip in the polls. I can think of three end goals for running in the eventual westminister election, rather then endorsing/teaming up with Boris. They are:

1) Farage is an accelerationist and wants to ruin the Tory Brexit and give power to the remainers, to hope he can push Leavers further into his camp. The problem is of course, if accelerationism worked, the world would have a lot more communist governments.

2) Farage is playing Littlefinger politics, and just wants chaos because chaos makes him valuable. The more chaos in the system, the more people are going to look elsewhere. Farage doesn't care what happens to the big picture if this is true, all he cares about is keeping the next rung on the ladder always in reach.

3) Perhaps the most likely option: Farage just wants a position in whatever political reality is to come. With the UK leaving the EU, he loses his paycheck and his microphone. Aquiring westminister seats give him access to both. If this reason is true though, he is losing control of the project. The narrative is leaving the Brexit party behind as Boris now beats the No Deal drum. If this is the real reason, Farage has every reason to try and cut a deal with the tories for seats, access, and a podium if The Brexit party starts becoming irrelevant in the polls.

[Oryxslayer]

Any caretaker government could be brought down by any one MP or faction, which is why it is a caretaker government. It would prevent anyone from occupying number 10 for any longer than the convenient alliance between the jumble of opposition parties and the insurgent Tories needed. However, what we are seeing now is I think being misinterpreted - this is public negotiations. In a coalition government power lies in two spots: the largest unified body of support, and the most insurgent group who would not be there if not for the need to get 50%+1. In a government with a expected lifespan of a month, max, the only thing to negotiate for is perhaps who will lead, and so a compromise needs to happen. Maybe there are other things that can be guaranteed for a month, even if the PM remains one person or another. Either way, that's how coalitions always form, they are never one party acquiescing to every demand of the other(s).  If you get these negotiations done now, then the front will be ready for the crisis when government returns.

[Oryxslayer]

No chance of him being re-elected but the less MPs in the two main parties the better, even if probably only briefly.

Really? This is a marginal leave area in suburban Greater London which saw a huge Remain related swing to Labour last election. Seems like the exact kind of place the LDs are going to be targeting in a few weeks.

[Oryxslayer]

This is why calling a general election would be a titanic gamble by Johnson:

https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1168920541065109505

I mean that's fairly standard, nobody likes a GE for a buffer/in govt like May tried. But instill the Leavers with the sense of fear that Brexit may not happen - either by a short opposition unity govt, or a govt brought down by Remainers seeking to insert further delays, and I suspect the numbers flip. Like the opposition of course would want a GE more.

I mean, this is the whole reason why Boris's current 'campaign' message is "I'm ready for Brexit," he's expecting the Remainers to jam up the gears and change the direction from leaving in October to Leaving When???. It's the kind of message that will work even better when you are the only Leave faction with MPs standing against the proverbial hordes of Remainers.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1168941734048489479

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1168941787077128193

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1168941796992475137

Two polarized worlds folks.

[Oryxslayer]

> making conclusions based on the trends of one YouGov poll

Not just one poll:



If the Leave vote is able to coalesce, which is easier then uniting the Remain vote, then that's a GE victory. TBH it is already occurring since the early-august creation of this chart: the Brexit party is flailing and Farage is now begging for scraps from the the Conservatives now that he lacks a guaranteed personal seat in Parliament.  The only way for the Remainers to reverse this fate is to team up - running alone and hoping voters act strategically isn't enough. A remain govt requires the LDs strength in the Remain/Tory south, Labour's seats to hold in the Brexit north, and the SNP to not distract both from the battles in the south.

[Oryxslayer]

Apparently Leadsom says the whip won't be withdrawn now, but perhaps it will be if they vote against the government again tomorrow.

Apparently other government sources say that the whip is withdrawn, but confirm it will be returned in the event of positive  votes tomorrow.

[Oryxslayer]

The 21 are no longer official Tories.