Random pre-election prediction page

[Storebought]

I think Bush will win the popular vote; and maybe the election. But my research shows that Kerry has the electoral vote. Mr. Bush may win the popular vote by 2 million but lose the electoral college. So enjoy. Read. And reference what I've looked at. If Mr. Bush does win. And goes against the patterns I've studied. Then please be aware that Mr. Bush and co-horts may have cheated the election process. So again, enjoy. I will put Nader's name in each state, since I really don't know which state has his name on the ballot. It will say Nader and others.

Projections for 2004 election:
Indiana: 11 electoral votes for Bush.
Projected vote: Bush 56% Kerry 41% Nader 1% others 2%

Kentucy: 8 electoral votes for Bush. Bush leads 19 to 0 against Kerry.
Projected vote: Bush 57% Kerry 40% Nader 1% others 2%.

New Hampshire: 4 electoral votes for Kerry.
Total: Bush 19 Kerry 4.
Projected vote: Kerry 50% Bush 47% Nader 1% others 2%.

Vermont: 3 electoral votes for Kerry.
Total: Bush 19 Kerry 7.
Projected vote: Kerry 51% Bush 47% Nader 1% others 1%

Virginia: 13 electoral votes up for grabs.
Total: Bush 19 Kerry 7
Projected vote: Kerry 49% Bush 49% Nader 1% others 1%. Northern Virginia may decide the election in this state.

Gerogia: 15 electoral votes for Bush.
Total: Bush 34 Kerry 7.
Projected vote: Bush 56% Kerry 43%.

Florida: 27 electoral votes for Kerry.
Total: Bush 34 Kerry 34.
Projected vote: Kerry 51% Bush 47% Nader 1% others 1%. The senior vote, along with the black and Jewish vote is part of the equation here. Heavily Democratic Broward County may decide the election.

South Carolina: 8 electoral votes for Bush.
Total: Bush 42 Kerry 34.
Projected vote: Bush 54% Kerry 43% Nader 1% others 1%.

Ohio: 20 electoral votes for Kerry.
Total: Bush 42 Kerry 54
Projected vote: Kerry 48% Bush 48% Nader 1% others 2% Labor, upset Republicans mad at outsourcing of jobs; and the black vote will decide the election.

West Virginia: 5 electoral votes for Kerry.
Total: Bush 42 Kerry 59.
Projected vote: Kerry 52% Bush 47% Nader .5% others .5%

North Carolina: 15 electoral votes up for grabs.
Total: Bush 42 Kerry 59
Projected vote: Kerry 49% Bush 49% Nader 1% others 1%.

Maine: 4 electoral votes for Kerry.
Total: Bush 42 Kerry 63
Projected vote: Kerry 50% Bush 48% Nader 1% others 1%.

Alabama: 9 electoral votes for Bush.
Total: Bush 51 Kerry 63.
Projected vote: Bush 58% Kerry 40% Nader 1% others 1%.

Massachusetts: 12 electoral votes for Kerry.
Total: Bush 51 Kerry 75
Projected vote: Kerry 67% Bush 31%

Connecticut: 7 electoral votes for Kerry.
Total: Bush 51 Kerry 82.
Projected vote: Kerry 55% Bush 41% Nader 1% others 3%.

Delaware: 3 electoral votes for Kerry.
Total: Bush 51 Kerry 85.
Projected vote: Kerry 56% Bush 42% Nader 1% others 1%.

Maryland: 10 electoral votes for Kerry.
Total: Bush 51 Kerry 95.
Projected vote: Kerry 57% Bush 41% Nader 1% others 1%.

Washington, D.C.: 3 electoral votes for Kerry.
Total: Bush 51 Kerry 98.
Projected vote: Kerry 85% Bush 13% Nader 1% others 1%.

Pennslyvania: 21 electoral votes for Kerry.
Total: Bush 51 Kerry 119.
Projected vote: Kerry 51% Bush 46% Nader 1% Others 2%. Philadelphia will decide the election in this state.

Michigan: 17 electoral votes for Kerry.
Total: Bush 51 Kerry 136.
Projected vote: Kerry 51% Bush 45% Nader 1% others 3%. The city of Detroit will decide the election in this state.

New Jersey: 15 electoral votes for Kerry.
Total: Bush 51 Kerry 151
Projected vote: Kerry 56% Bush 42% Nader 1% others 1%.

Mississippi: 6 electoral votes for Bush.
Total: Bush 57 Kerry 151.
Projected vote: Bush 56% Kerry 41% Nader 1% others 2%.

Illinois: 21 electoral votes for Kerry.
Total: Bush 57 Kerry 172.
Projected vote: Kerry 56% Bush 42% Nader 1% others 1%.

Missouri: 11 electoral votes for Kerry.
Total: Bush 57 Kerry 183
Projected vote: Kerry 49% Bush 48% Nader 1% others 2%. This state will be close. African-American voters may decide which way the state will go.

Tennessee: 11 electoral votes for Bush.
Total: Bush 68 Kerry 183.
Projected vote: Bush 51% Kerry 47% Nader 1% others 1%.

Oklahoma: 7 electoral votes for Bush.
Total: Bush 75 kerry 183.
Projected vote: Bush 58% Kerry 40% Nader 1% others 1%.

Texas: 34 electoral votes for Bush.
Total: Bush 109 Kerry 183.
Projected vote: Bush 63% Kerry 32% Nader 3% others 2%. The Mexican-American vote is divided here. Bush's home state.

Kansas: 6 electoral votes for Bush.
Total: Bush 115 Kerry 183.
Projected vote: Bush 61% Kerry 37% Nader 1% others 1%.

North Dakota: 3 electoral votes for Bush.
Total: Bush 118 Kerry 183.
Projected vote: Bush 60% Kerry 40% Nader 0% others 0%.

Arkansas: 6 electoral votes for Kerry.
Total: Bush 118 Kerry 189.
Projected vote: Kerry 49% Bush 49% Nader 1% others 1%.

Rhode Island: 3 electoral votes for Kerry.
Total: Bush 118 Kerry 192
Projected vote: Kerry 61% Bush 36% Nader 1% others 2%.

New York: 31 electoral votes for Kerry.
Total: Bush 118 Kerry 223. 270 needed to win.
Projected vote: Kerry 61% Bush 37% Nader 1% others 1%.

Wisconsin: 10 electoral votes for Kerry.
Total: Bush 118 Kerry 233.
Projected vote: Kerry 50% Bush 48% Nader 1% others 1%. A German-American state. Liberalism still beats in their hearts. Remember Lafollette.

Minnesota: 10 electoral votes for Kerry.
Total: Bush 118 Kerry 243.
Projected vote: Kerry 52% Bush 47% Nader 1% others 0%. Another German-American state. The liberal label doesn't hurt Kerry.

Nebraska: 5 electoral votes for Bush.
Total: Bush 123 Kerry 243.
Projected vote: Bush 58% Kerry 41% Nader 1% others 0%.

Louisiana: 9 electoral votes for Bush.
Total: Bush 132 Kerry 243.
Projected vote: Bush 49% Kerry 48% Nader 1% others 2%. French Catholics and Blacks will decide this election.

South Dakota: 3 electoral votes for Bush.
Total: Bush 135 Kerry 243.
Projected vote: Bush 51% Kerry 48% Nader 1% others 0%.

Wyoming: 3 electoral votes for Bush.
Total: Bush 138 Kerry 243.
Projected vote: Bush 67% Kerry 29% Nader 2% others 2%.

New Mexico: 5 electoral votes for Kerry.
Total: Kerry 248 Bush 138.
Projected vote: Kerry 53% Bush 44% Nader 1% others 2%. The Mexican-American vote will go heavily for Kerry in this state.

Colorado: 9 electoral votes for Kerry.
Total: Kerry 257 Bush 138.
Projected vote: Kerry 50% Bush 48% Nader 1% others 1%. An influx of Mexican-Americans from California into Pueblo and southern Colorado, more likely federal workers and their families will decide this election.

Arizona: 10 electoral votes for Bush
Total: Bush 148 Kerry 257
Projected vote: Bush 49% Kerry 49% Nader 1% others 1%. If the Mexican-American vote comes out in heavy numbers, Bush may be in trouble.

Iowa: 7 electoral votes for Kerry.
Total: Kerry 264 Bush 148
Projected vote: Kerry 54% Bush 44% Nader 1% others 0% An anomalous state. Mirrors Minnesota and Wisconsin, more than Kansas or Nebraska.

Montana: 3 electoral votes for Bush.
Total: Bush 151 Kerry 264.
Projected vote: 64% Kerry 32% Nader 2%
others 1%.

Idaho: 4 electoral votes for Bush.
Total: Bush 155 Kerry 264.
Projected vote: Bush 67% Kerry 31% Nader 1% Others 1%.

Utah: 5 electoral votes for Bush.
Total: Bush 160 Kerry 264.
Projected vote: Bush 66% Kerry 30% Nader 2% others 2%.

Nevada: 5 electoral votes for Kerry.
Total: Bush 160 Kerry 269.
Projected vote: Kerry 49% Bush 49% Nader 1% Others 1%.

Washington: 11 electoral votes for Kerry.
Total: Kerry 280 Bush 160
Projected vote: Kerry 52% Bush 47% Nader 1% others 0%. Progressives or liberals run the state.

Oregon: 7 electoral votes for Kerry.
Total: Kerry 287 Bush 160
Projected vote: Kerry 51% Bush 48% Nader 1% others 0%. Liberalism thrives in this state.

California: 55 electoral votes for Kerry.
Total: Kerry 342 Bush 160
Projected vote: Kerry 55% Bush 41% Nader 2% others 2%. LIberalislm is not a dirty word here.

Hawaii: 4 electoral votes for Kerry.


"Total: Kerry 344 Bush 160
Projected vote: Kerry 56% Bush 42% Nader 1% others 1%.

Alaska: 3 electoral votes for Bush.
Total: Kerry 344 Bush 163
Projected vote: Bush 64% Kerry 33% Nader 1% others 2%.

There you have it. The way the electoral college should go. As you can see, the state Kerry wins are by small margins. The three states he wins by landslides are his home state of Massachusetts, and California and New York. While Mr. Bush is piling heavily pluaralities in Republican leaning states. It should be an interesting night.

[Storebought]

I quoted from the last prediction on the prediction page, immediately before the election, if I'm reading the date right.

Stupid me, I forgot to include the source url in my original post.

I assure you: I did not make that prediction. My negative anti-Bush prediction was from around August 2004 or so.