Bush is skipping the Iowa Straw Poll; Might skip the Caucus

[Bull Moose Base]

The straw poll is nonsense, but he would be foolish to skip the caucus primary. If he does, that would give a better opening for Kasich if he runs to make some headway.

Kasich looks to be skipping Iowa too actually.

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2015/05/11/john-kasichs-possible-2016-run-might-focus-on-new-hampshire-primary-not-iowa.html

Jonathan Bernstein has argued skipping Iowa hurts you in New Hampshire but I'm skeptical. Romney made a much bigger play than McCain for Iowa, did much better in Iowa and then McCain won NH.

[Bull Moose Base]

Bush is turning into Giuliani dead on arrival

Nah, that's Christie.

No King's comparison was accurate.
Christie=McCain. Savvy enough to rebound but Dead in September when people remember what kind of decisions he makes. (No, he's not actually my pick to win the nomination but it wouldn't surprise me.)

No, I agree Christie matches Giuliani, scuttled by an aura of corruption. Jeb is a better match for Romney but probably with stronger conservative competition. Although if he's lucky, Walker will be like Perry.

[Bull Moose Base]

Bush is turning into Giuliani dead on arrival

Nah, that's Christie.

No King's comparison was accurate.
Christie=McCain. Savvy enough to rebound but Dead in September when people remember what kind of decisions he makes. (No, he's not actually my pick to win the nomination but it wouldn't surprise me.)

No, I agree Christie matches Giuliani, scuttled by an aura of corruption. Jeb is a better match for Romney but probably with stronger conservative competition. Although if he's lucky, Walker will be like Perry.

Your comparisons don't make any sense to me.

Well, that's too bad because they're good!

Christie and Giuliani are both brash, former, NY-area prosecutors who were polling very well before corruption allegations. (Christie's came out sooner though)

Bush is dominating the money race like Romney did in 2012 which is still only translating into tepid interest from rank and file voters.

And Rick Perry was a governor, more conservative alternative to Romney albeit one acceptable to the establishment, who surged to big leads in the polls until he was exposed as (a) an idiot (b) not always being the immigration hardliner he was posing as. Walker is likely to follow suit.

How about Rand Paul is Ron Paul?

[Bull Moose Base]

Bush is turning into Giuliani dead on arrival

Nah, that's Christie.

No King's comparison was accurate.
Christie=McCain. Savvy enough to rebound but Dead in September when people remember what kind of decisions he makes. (No, he's not actually my pick to win the nomination but it wouldn't surprise me.)

No, I agree Christie matches Giuliani, scuttled by an aura of corruption. Jeb is a better match for Romney but probably with stronger conservative competition. Although if he's lucky, Walker will be like Perry.

Your comparisons don't make any sense to me.

Well, that's too bad because they're good!

Christie and Giuliani are both brash, former, NY-area prosecutors who were polling very well before corruption allegations. (Christie's came out sooner though)

Bush is dominating the money race like Romney did in 2012 which is still only translating into tepid interest from rank and file voters.

And Rick Perry was a governor, more conservative alternative to Romney albeit one acceptable to the establishment, who surged to big leads in the polls until he was exposed as (a) an idiot (b) not always being the immigration hardliner he was posing as. Walker is likely to follow suit.

How about Rand Paul is Ron Paul?

Perry was never acceptable to the establishment, especially after threatening with violence Ben Bernanke.

It's true Walker is more acceptable to Wall St than Perry was, but each is/was strongly preferred by Bush and Romney respectively, but able to raise a lot of money from other big donors anyway. But the biggest point of comparison is securing the position of strongest conservative alternative to the establishment favorite, especially casting himself as more conservative on immigration, despite inconsistencies of their own. And, as I said, maybe coming off looking like an idiot.