KY, MS etc. Results Thread

[DINGO Joe]

KY Politics at the State level are statewide politics but tie into an Historical Narrative, which can trickle into Federal GE Races....

The revival of the Trade Union Movement in the Form of the Teacher's Strikes in Kentucky have revived the memories of older retirees in a heavily white impoverished State.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/13/us/teacher-walkout-kentucky-oklahoma-arizona/index.html

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/education/2019/03/20/teacher-strike-sickout-kentucky-jcps-wayne-lewis-names-list/3223587002/

https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/education/2019/02/28/kentucky-teacher-sickout-strike-due-to-pension-system-bill/3012091002/

https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/409014-some-in-kentucky-teacher-strike-were-confused-says-governor

https://apnews.com/3622dc9b61204787a5b5f3da24e409e1


Although this did not directly cripple the KY State Republican Party, it is clear that they got a punch in the face from segments of the electorate that they had expected to win, based upon the popularity of the 'Pub brand on items such as Energy Policy, Social Conservative Religious Platforms, and even possibly even Gun Owners (Although that vast majority of KY Voters have a firearm within their house).

Anybody who chooses to believe that many registered KY DEMs within the Coal Country of SE KY have forgotten their Coal Miner Daughter Roots, let alone Coal Counties of Western Kentucky (Muhlenberg County for one example) have forgotten their Trade Union Ancestral Roots, must be smoking a bigger and stronger form of Crystal Meth than any of the "crackheads" within the declining Timber Mill and Factory Towns of Downstate Oregon....

UMWA Pension Plans have been screwed over from the bosses for a long time, which is currently one of the major items for the rump of the UMWA, while meanwhile there are literally generations of Coal Miners within the tight-knit communities of Appalachia that will always remember and never forget, while meanwhile their kids and grandkids migrate to the bright-lights and big cities of places like Cinci, Indie, Chi-Town....

"Insert John Prine Song from the early '70s"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DEy6EuZp9IY

No Question: Beshear's win was directly a result of the Union Movement activists in a heavily Non-Union State, with the small exception of a handful of Public Sector Workers (Teachers, Cops, Firefighters, County, State, and Municipal Employees) that were getting screwed over by the same type of forced "Austerity Politics" we have seen enforced against our rural communities over the decades from both Democratic and Republican Political Leaders alike.

For whatever reason, KY coal was far less unionized than WV, and there are no union coal mines left in KY.  Bloody Harlan actually swung hard towards Bevin in this election, though the coal county swings were generally mixed and minimal.  What won the election for Beshear was a substantial swing in all the "educated" counties in KY (counties with 20% or more of 25 and over with a college degree) and especially in counties with a higher education institution.  Yeah, Bevin definitely made the teachers mad (cause he's a disrespectful jerk) but did they rekindled the union spirit in coal country? no.

[DINGO Joe]

KY Politics at the State level are statewide politics but tie into an Historical Narrative, which can trickle into Federal GE Races....

The revival of the Trade Union Movement in the Form of the Teacher's Strikes in Kentucky have revived the memories of older retirees in a heavily white impoverished State.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/13/us/teacher-walkout-kentucky-oklahoma-arizona/index.html

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/education/2019/03/20/teacher-strike-sickout-kentucky-jcps-wayne-lewis-names-list/3223587002/

https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/education/2019/02/28/kentucky-teacher-sickout-strike-due-to-pension-system-bill/3012091002/

https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/409014-some-in-kentucky-teacher-strike-were-confused-says-governor

https://apnews.com/3622dc9b61204787a5b5f3da24e409e1


Although this did not directly cripple the KY State Republican Party, it is clear that they got a punch in the face from segments of the electorate that they had expected to win, based upon the popularity of the 'Pub brand on items such as Energy Policy, Social Conservative Religious Platforms, and even possibly even Gun Owners (Although that vast majority of KY Voters have a firearm within their house).

Anybody who chooses to believe that many registered KY DEMs within the Coal Country of SE KY have forgotten their Coal Miner Daughter Roots, let alone Coal Counties of Western Kentucky (Muhlenberg County for one example) have forgotten their Trade Union Ancestral Roots, must be smoking a bigger and stronger form of Crystal Meth than any of the "crackheads" within the declining Timber Mill and Factory Towns of Downstate Oregon....

UMWA Pension Plans have been screwed over from the bosses for a long time, which is currently one of the major items for the rump of the UMWA, while meanwhile there are literally generations of Coal Miners within the tight-knit communities of Appalachia that will always remember and never forget, while meanwhile their kids and grandkids migrate to the bright-lights and big cities of places like Cinci, Indie, Chi-Town....

"Insert John Prine Song from the early '70s"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DEy6EuZp9IY

No Question: Beshear's win was directly a result of the Union Movement activists in a heavily Non-Union State, with the small exception of a handful of Public Sector Workers (Teachers, Cops, Firefighters, County, State, and Municipal Employees) that were getting screwed over by the same type of forced "Austerity Politics" we have seen enforced against our rural communities over the decades from both Democratic and Republican Political Leaders alike.

For whatever reason, KY coal was far less unionized than WV, and there are no union coal mines left in KY.  Bloody Harlan actually swung hard towards Bevin in this election, though the coal county swings were generally mixed and minimal.  What won the election for Beshear was a substantial swing in all the "educated" counties in KY (counties with 20% or more of 25 and over with a college degree) and especially in counties with a higher education institution.  Yeah, Bevin definitely made the teachers mad (cause he's a disrespectful jerk) but did they rekindled the union spirit in coal country? no.

Thanks DINGO Joe... believe we've been buddies for quite a few years on Atlas, and hopefully not confusing you with White Trash, but if not "buddies" at least fellow travelers on a few mutual items of interest....

You are absolutely correct regarding the Unionization of the Coal Sector within KY and WV from an historical perspective.

That was part of the reason for the UMWA Pittston Strike of '89.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pittston_Coal_strike

http://umwa.org/take-action/

Now, you are 100% correct that the last struggle of the UMWA was against Non-Union Mines being generated within Coal Country as part of "Double-Breasting" strategy of the Operators...

https://www.nytimes.com/1993/02/06/us/union-prepares-for-long-strike-at-coal-mines.html

I was in Ohio during the strike of '93 in College and combined with multiple Union Activists brought 3rd Generation Coal Miners from SE OH on speaking tours throughout the Cities, Union Halls, and Universities to explain the struggle within the Coal Fields of Appalachia...

Now, the point you missed was that when you live in smaller rural communities where the jobs dry up in heavily small town and rural communities, is that you drift towards the larger small towns, and towards the larger cities, which like in most of downstate Oregon aren't too plentiful in search of an alternate reality....

Did somehow a bunch of Yuppies invade the "Urban" and "Suburban" areas of Kentucky from elsewhere seeking job opportunities in the Non-Union Auto Plants of KY?

Were there massive swings in military base towns of KY?

Sorry... don't buy the MSM narrative from MSNBC and CNN, and possibly even 'Pub Media that this was somehow a "massive swing in Upper Income Wealthy White 'Burbs in KY".

Might make sense in other parts of the Country, but not in KY.

Teacher Strike was key.... many sons and daughters, grandkids etc of former miners are teachers, cops, and firefighters within all counties and cities in KY and recognize the War Against the Union when they see one....

Apologies if you thought I was directly talking about election results just from SE-KY....

Lived in OH in the early '90s where just recently Anti-Discrimination Bills had been passed to protect folks of Appalachian decent in places like Cinci, Dayton, and Columbus....

Remember, heading over to a Union Demo in East Liverpool, where I got warned from a local who had at least +20 on me, to keep my eyes open in small towns along the Ohio River, because you could robbed at knife point if you don't take it easy....

Didn't give an eff as a punker and never got robbed at knife point in a small Ohio River City with a pop of 5-10k, but yeah stayed on the main streets of towns with 40% youth unemployment rates....

Yeah, we're buddies and people mistake me for White Trash all the time.  Also appreciate the work you do, and you can put pen to paper and prove me wrong.  Kentucky does tend to have a high rate of natives in the state

https://www.governing.com/gov-data/census/native-homegrown-residents-by-county.html

Though you will note that the biggest swings to Beshear from 2015 are in the least native counties.

The counties with fewest natives also, in general, tend to have the highest education attainment and again there's a strong correlation between swing towards Beshear and educational attainment.  

In metro Louisville

Oldham (40 college 56 native) the swing was +20 for Beshear
Jefferson (32-63) the swing was +16
Bullitt (14-78) the swing was +7.5
Hardin (24-49) the swing was +12.5

Hardin is home to Ft. Knox and thus a military presence and least native.

It's not exactly rigorous analysis and maybe you can come up with something deeper.  Of course, when you win by a very narrow margin you need every vote across whatever spectrum you can get, but Beshear certainly gained more  in the high educated, high income, and less native parts than he did in the opposite.

[DINGO Joe]

NYCMM was certainly correct about Atlas (himself included) being wrong...

You may be somewhat correct regarding one of us; however, NYCMM predicted about a 3% margin when I spoke to him, so if Beshear merely got two extra points at the expense of Bevin, which isn't that far off.

Ah right! Too bad for him that the rest of us can read what he actually predicted...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Kentucky_gubernatorial_election#Polling_3

I'm going to give Beshear the 46% in the latest Mason Dixon poll, the Lolbertarian 1%, and the rest to Bevin

Kentucky

Bevin: 53%
Beshear: 46%
Libertarian: 1%

This was non-final. I spoke to him on Monday night.

Nuke is like NYCMM's Ronna Romney

[DINGO Joe]

Don't forget Austria has an odd curiosity about Kentucky because it's shaped like a mutant Austria.

[DINGO Joe]

If Edwards beats Rispone by at least 43.000 votes next week, then Democrats got a combined plurality of votes for the first time since 1991 in those 3 states:

ca. 49% D
ca. 49% R

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/national.php?year=2019&off=5&f=1

If Edwards wins big, a majority with 50%+ is also possible.

Mississippi still undervotes the other two by quite a bit, even adjusted for population.

[DINGO Joe]

Nice 55 point swing against the GOP in Knott county.
A taste of the Suburbaggedon coming in 2020.

Knott County, Kentucky is definitely not suburban.

What?  it's obviously an exurb of Elliott.

[DINGO Joe]

Fun with numbers

Jefferson+Fayette

Beshear--259958
Bevin--124655

Beshear +135303

Everything else

Beshear--449932
Bevin--580099

Bevin +130167

2015

Jefferson+Fayette

Conway--150452
Bevin-- 102215

Conway +48237

Everything else

Conway--276168
Bevin--409159

Bevin +132091

So, outside of the big two, Bevin actually won by a wider vote margin than in 2015