Japan 2012

[jaichind]

Another thing that is interesting is that it looks like JRP would capture more PR votes than DPJ.  If that is the case then this could pose a threat to the existance of the DPJ, much more so than in 2005.  On the other hand I can see JRP falling apart very soon now that its goal of being a critical swing block has failed in this election.

[jaichind]

Only 3 seats in Tokyo left, and 15 PR seats still not determined.  Tokyo PR count is also very slow.  The count in the PR section is slowing turning against LDP+NKP.   I figure they would get 42% vs 43% now.  LDP+NKP has 317 out of 462 seats determined.   I figure they will have about 325 or so when this is done.  Not as a massive victory as it seems before in the count but pretty much rivals the Koizumi landslide of 2005 with a less votes.  Pretty impressive. Of course in 2006 Abe took over the LDP+NKP majority of a similar size and we know what happen after that.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Six seats left to determine according to NHK. LDP+NKP is at 323, DPJ at 56, Ex-Governor Misogyny and the Hashists at 52. Ozawa Ichiro Appreciation Life/Governor Kada's Bizarre Adventure is at 8 seats, which I'm of two minds about because Ozawa is awful but Kada seems pretty decent as far as these people go.

[politicus]

So what is the likely result of this on the Japanse cente-left? Any mergers or alliances likely to occur?

[jaichind]

Look at the PR results as they come in I am thinking that LDP-NKP will be around 40% maybe even less. Wow, we have a system where 40% of the vote gets you a 2/3 of the seats even though almost 40% of the seats are determined by PR.  This is amazing.  Of course, one thing is for sure, the LDP-NKP in 2012 on the PR list got LESS votes then it did in 2009 when it was destroyed in a landslide. 

[Hash]

So maybe FPTP is not the worst thing in the world. Ugh.

[jaichind]

Looking at what we know about LDP-NKP PR vote
and comparing to 2009

                           2009              2012
Hokkaidō             37.2                37.4
Tōhoku                37.6                37.8
Northern Kantō   37.2                40.8
Southern Kantō   36.0                37.0
Tōkyō                   35.9                35.0
Hokuriku-Shin      36.9                40.1
Tōkai                    36.8               38.5
Kinki                     36.2               36.6
Chūgoku              45.4                48.6
Shikoku                45.0                45.7
Kyūshū                 44.4                45.6
----------------------------------------------------------
                            38.5                 ?

There seems to be a swing of 1% to 2% to LDP-NKP so LDP-NKP will end up with around 40%.   But nothing to write home about.  Of course one reads all these articles about people switching to vote for LDP-NKP but I just do no see it from data above.  It seems more about DPJ voters not showing up and what did show up splintered between DPJ, JRP, YP, Future Party, and SDP.  Also what is funny is in the place where turnout is higher, Tokyo, LDP-NKP actually lost ground.

[jaichind]

Another winner in addition to LDP-NKP seems to YP (Your Party) which went from 5 in 2009 to 18 in 2012.  It seems it got around 8-9% of the PR vote versus 4.27% back in 2009. 

[jaichind]

Based on personal tabulation of numbers in PR list I get

LDP        27.63%
NKP        11.83%  -> LDP+NKP 39.46%
JRP         20.83%
DPJ         16.00%
PNP          0.12% -> DPJ+PNP  16.12%
YP             8.72%
JCP           6.13%
Future      5.69%
SDP          2.36%
Daichi       0.58%
HRP          0.36%
NRP          0.22%

So LDP+NKP could not even cross 40%.  This is the worst showing by LDP+NKP in the PR vote since the 1993 system was established except for 2009.  

From a DPJ point of view, there is not time to lose.  They have to hope that the new LDP-NKP stumbles and the JRP starts falling apart.  Even if that were to take place the only way DPJ can take advantage of this is if it forms an alliance with itself, SDP and Future Party into a broad center-left block.  Only then can it take advantage of problems in LDP-NKP and JPR in the 2013 upper house elections.  Or else JRP might take the position of the main opposition party and DPJ will turn into another SDP. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If that does happen (and this is such a horrifically huge defeat that you have to start to wonder whether the DPJ can properly survive it) where would large sections of what's left of the DPJ vote head? There's always been a centre left minority vote in postwar Japan, after all. Another new party?

[jaichind]

TV Tokyo asked 100 political reporters who the most effective politicians were and they came up with that list. Noda was the favorite by a mile, while Kan managed to finish in a tie for fifth. Abe, the prospective prime minister, clocked in at fifteenth, a fact that came out in a sidebar. The reporters respect politicians who prioritize making policy over getting reelected and ideals over expediency, policy.

[Meeker]

Final LDP+NKP seat count is 325 (68% of seats); DPJ+PNP are at 58 and JRP at 54. 43 for the others and the independents.

[RogueBeaver]

How long will it take for them to tabulate the FPTP PV? Unless that's already been done.

[jaichind]

Of the 5 independents, 4 are pro-LDP and 1 is pro-DPJ.  One of them is Kunio Hatoyama, brother of the former DPJ PM and co-founder of DPJ.  Kunio has since rejoined LDP after founding the DPJ years ago and broke with the LDP again in 2010.  He ran in his district without an opposing LDP candidate and was the de facto LDP candidate.

[jaichind]

I assume in a day or two.  They did not tabulate the PR vote either.  I merely downloaded the data and tabulated myself for the PR vote.

How long will it take for them to tabulate the FPTP PV? Unless that's already been done.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Poor DPJ.

[jaichind]

Yen/USD at 84 now.  It was 78 back in the summer.  The new Abe regime will push the BOJ to do more QE ergo that will drive the Yen down.  All this QE by everyone, like the USA, will eventually cancel each other out.  Nikki up 1.4%, again with QE the money supply will surge which is good for equity markets on the short run.

[jaichind]

Looking through the results I found out that Makiko Tanaka of the DPJ was defeated in her district and failed to get a vote share high enough to make it into the Diet on PR.  She is the daugher of Kakuei Tanaka who was the powerful political power broker of the LDP and was the PM of Japan.  Kakuei Tanaka was the political mentor of Ozawa in the 1970s and 1980s until Ozawa turned againist Kakuei Tanaka.  Makiko Tanaka was the foreign minister of the Koizumi administration and had a falling out with Koizumi and eventually went over to the DPJ from the LDP.  I was really impressed with her performance as Japan FM back in  2001 and I am saddened to see her defeated.

[Simfan34]

I must say all these new parties- the Restoration Party, Your Party, all seem a bit nefarious and right-wing-y

[Meeker]

Yes, the JRP could be described as "a bit" right-wing...

[Zuza]

I must say all these new parties- the Restoration Party, Your Party, all seem a bit nefarious and right-wing-y

Future Party is not right-wing.

[Iannis]

Based on personal tabulation of numbers in PR list I get

LDP        27.63%
NKP        11.83%  -> LDP+NKP 39.46%
JRP         20.83%
DPJ         16.00%
PNP          0.12% -> DPJ+PNP  16.12%
YP             8.72%
JCP           6.13%
Future      5.69%
SDP          2.36%
Daichi       0.58%
HRP          0.36%
NRP          0.22%

So LDP+NKP could not even cross 40%.  This is the worst showing by LDP+NKP in the PR vote since the 1993 system was established except for 2009.  

From a DPJ point of view, there is not time to lose.  They have to hope that the new LDP-NKP stumbles and the JRP starts falling apart.  Even if that were to take place the only way DPJ can take advantage of this is if it forms an alliance with itself, SDP and Future Party into a broad center-left block.  Only then can it take advantage of problems in LDP-NKP and JPR in the 2013 upper house elections.  Or else JRP might take the position of the main opposition party and DPJ will turn into another SDP. 

This enlights very well all the defects of FPTP system, a totally undemocratic representation.

[MaxQue]

Based on personal tabulation of numbers in PR list I get

LDP        27.63%
NKP        11.83%  -> LDP+NKP 39.46%
JRP         20.83%
DPJ         16.00%
PNP          0.12% -> DPJ+PNP  16.12%
YP             8.72%
JCP           6.13%
Future      5.69%
SDP          2.36%
Daichi       0.58%
HRP          0.36%
NRP          0.22%

So LDP+NKP could not even cross 40%.  This is the worst showing by LDP+NKP in the PR vote since the 1993 system was established except for 2009.  

From a DPJ point of view, there is not time to lose.  They have to hope that the new LDP-NKP stumbles and the JRP starts falling apart.  Even if that were to take place the only way DPJ can take advantage of this is if it forms an alliance with itself, SDP and Future Party into a broad center-left block.  Only then can it take advantage of problems in LDP-NKP and JPR in the 2013 upper house elections.  Or else JRP might take the position of the main opposition party and DPJ will turn into another SDP. 

This enlights very well all the defects of FPTP system, a totally undemocratic representation.

Japan has a mixed FPTP-PR system.

[politicus]

Based on personal tabulation of numbers in PR list I get

LDP        27.63%
NKP        11.83%  -> LDP+NKP 39.46%
JRP         20.83%
DPJ         16.00%
PNP          0.12% -> DPJ+PNP  16.12%
YP             8.72%
JCP           6.13%
Future      5.69%
SDP          2.36%
Daichi       0.58%
HRP          0.36%
NRP          0.22%

So LDP+NKP could not even cross 40%.  This is the worst showing by LDP+NKP in the PR vote since the 1993 system was established except for 2009.  

From a DPJ point of view, there is not time to lose.  They have to hope that the new LDP-NKP stumbles and the JRP starts falling apart.  Even if that were to take place the only way DPJ can take advantage of this is if it forms an alliance with itself, SDP and Future Party into a broad center-left block.  Only then can it take advantage of problems in LDP-NKP and JPR in the 2013 upper house elections.  Or else JRP might take the position of the main opposition party and DPJ will turn into another SDP. 

This enlights very well all the defects of FPTP system, a totally undemocratic representation.

Japan has a mixed FPTP-PR system.

Which is worse than pure FPTP, but it is still the FPTP part that ruins it.

[jaichind]

Well, Your Party is more Libertarian and JPR more of a populist right.  I personally rather like YR.  On the same topic, I would argue that NKP which is LDP's ally is not that right wing.  It is Japan's version of the Christian Democrats, or NKP would argue.  On the hawkish dovish axis, NKP is quite dovish and it is economically centrist.

I must say all these new parties- the Restoration Party, Your Party, all seem a bit nefarious and right-wing-y