How anyone can poll the Hispanic preference when their turnout this year is so up in the air, escapes me. I suspect Hispanic turnout will substantially erode from 2008.
http://cis.org/projecting-2012-hispanic-vote-nationally-battleground-states
This analysis suggests Hispanic turnout will increase considerably from 2008, up to 8.9% of the electorate (from 7.4% in 2008). It's worth noting that this same methodology accurately predicted 2010 Hispanic turnout, within a tenth of a percent.
With this data so far I think Obama will win Nevada and Colorado.
