Is Florida now a lean Democratic state in presidential elections?

[minionofmidas]

Absolutely not. Look at these figures of Florida compared to the national popular vote:

2000 - 0,52% GOP lean
2004 - 2,51% GOP lean
2008 - 4,46% GOP lean
2012 - 1,78% GOP lean - results not final.

If anything, before this election Florida was trending republican. As much as I would love for Florida to join the Dem column, I don't see any real signs of that happening anytime soon.

Thanks for putting in the numbers so I don't have to.

[opebo]

Florida is a very Republican state when it comes to non-presidential races. When it comes to presidential race? It is an absolute swing state. Nothing more, nothing less.

Yeah, this is absolutely correct.  However, I would expect a continued drift in the Democratic direction - both locally and nationally - due to demographic change.  However I think it will take a lot longer time for it to effect the actual balance of power in the state government.

A lot depends on Hispanic in Florida - younger Cubans are now leaning Dem, but it is Florida Hispanics in general are less decided than Hispanics in the rest of the country.  The other major factor is - will future sets of seniors be more Dem leaning?  I think they will, slightly.

After all, in 2016 and certainly by 2020 a lot of the current senior Florida voters will have gone on to that big election booth in the sky.

[minionofmidas]

Rubio cleaned up among Dade non-Cuban Hispanics.

[opebo]

Rubio cleaned up among Dade non-Cuban Hispanics.

Not a good sign then.  Swing state at best, perhaps continued lean-R in non-national for the foreseeable future.

[DemPGH]

No. I think "swing state" is way, way overused - FL is a true swing state. It's capable of going either direction by a point of two. And whoever wins has to kick butt in turnout. Swing state in the truest sense.

[Badger]

Hell no. Still clearly tilt R.