CA: Rasmussen: Obama in good shape

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: California President by Rasmussen on 2008-06-23

Summary: D: 58%, R: 30%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Ronnie]

Should I put California as D > 60?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

CA was going to be good for the Dem this year no matter what.

Obama will do well - I doubt it'll be 60% range though.

[Alcon]

Not to rain on the parade, but is anyone else not buying Obama +28 here?

[Ronnie]

Not to rain on the parade, but is anyone else not buying Obama +28 here?

That's exactly why I asked if I should put CA as D > 60.  I really doubt that it's appropriate, though.

If he can run up these margins in a place like California, it's practically impossible for McCain to win the popular vote.

[Wiz in Wis]

Not to rain on the parade, but is anyone else not buying Obama +28 here?

The poll was taken the day of McCain's Santa Barabara Oil speech. Reaction in the local news was universally negative,I have been told, and the event was picketed by several dozen people recalling the 1960s oil spill there. I bet McCain was really disliked that day.

[Brittain33]

Why Santa Barbara for this announcement? Was McCain trying to trigger a backlash so he could ride the wave of anti-California sentiment in the rest of the west and among the conservative base?

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Hmmmm.....nice.

[True Democrat]

Obama receiving 58% seems pretty realistic.

McCain getting 30% does not.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Not to rain on the parade, but is anyone else not buying Obama +28 here?

Nope.  In 2004, it was Kerry +10; in 2000, it was Gore +12, and in 1996, it was Clinton +13.  No way it's currently Obama +28.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Not to rain on the parade, but is anyone else not buying Obama +28 here?

Nope.  In 2004, it was Kerry +10; in 2000, it was Gore +12, and in 1996, it was Clinton +13.  No way it's currently Obama +28.

But they do really like Obama out West.  It's not out of the realm of possibility that Obama is polling very well in the Northern part of the state that is more Pacific Northwestern, where we know he is extremely popular from the polls in Alaska, Oregon, and Washington. 

I'm going to guess that the state goes 57-41 Obama in the end. 

But considering it's a base state for the Dems, it's really only good for running up the PV total. 

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Too many Republican areas in Southern California for Obama to win by this margin. Sorry.

[Adlai Stevenson]

My prediction:

CALIFORNIA PRESIDENT -
56% (D) Obama
41% (R) McCain
  2% Others

[Brittain33]

Too many Republican areas in Southern California for Obama to win by this margin. Sorry.

That argument becomes tautological.

[Alcon]

Too many Republican areas in Southern California for Obama to win by this margin. Sorry.

That argument becomes tautological.

I think what he's trying to say - that there is too high of a GOP base in California for this - is valid.

"There are too many McCain voters for Obama to do this well!" would certainly be. 

[Flying Dog]

Obama must be doing very well among latino's.

[ottermax]

 

Too many Republican areas in Southern California for Obama to win by this margin. Sorry.

That argument becomes tautological.

I think what he's trying to say - that there is too high of a GOP base in California for this - is valid.

"There are too many McCain voters for Obama to do this well!" would certainly be. 

You could also say that it is difficult for Obama to lose because the Democratic base in the Bay Area + L.A. is too strong.

[The Mikado]

Obama receiving 58% seems pretty realistic.

McCain getting 30% does not.

^^^^

This.

I have no trouble believing that Obama could hit 56-58 in CA.  But those undecideds will be voting McCain.

[War on Want]

Yup I think CA will swing towards Obama by quite a bit but there is no way he will do better than 58-59%. I just don't see it happening with all of the moderate Republicans in SoCal that went giddy over McCain.

[Eraserhead]

He might be able to break 60, I wouldn't bet on it though. If he does, he's going to have to lose really badly in other areas in order to lose the popular vote. One can only imagine what the riots will be like he wins the popular vote by a decent amount but narrowly loses the electoral college.

[Sbane]

Wow I am almost inclined to call this a trash poll. Obama will break about 57-58 though....60 is probably too hard.

[RJ]

I have a hard time believing Obama is ahead by 28% in CA and behind only 19% in Utah or even 16% in Nebraska, according to Rasmussen.

[Democratic Hawk]

. Not that I think Obama will best McCain by 28 points in CA - but the message seems clear. CA ain't interested in the John McCain of 2008 (and neither am I)

Dave

[Eraserhead]

Obama must be doing very well among latino's.

Of course he is. Virtually every poll has shown him raping McCain among Latinos.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Here in northern California, we're really on fire for this election.