Alex Sink running for Bill Young's old house seat

[Meeker]

Total spending has topped $8.2 million. And there's still nine days to go.

I think Sink will end up winning narrowly, somewhere in the range of 2 or 3 points. She won't be able to take much of a breather though; the November election will be a toss-up if the Republicans get a better candidate than Jolly.

[Meeker]

If Sink wins, the general is Lean D. Turnout will be better, plus it's not like Jolly was a flawed opponent. In fact, I think he's done a pretty good job.


The people saying she loses the general without saying why are idiots.

Jolly is a deeply flawed candidate - Sink's entire campaign against him has been based on his lobbying career. The ads have written themselves.

[Meeker]

If Sink wins, the general is Lean D. Turnout will be better, plus it's not like Jolly was a flawed opponent. In fact, I think he's done a pretty good job.


The people saying she loses the general without saying why are idiots.

Jolly is a deeply flawed candidate - Sink's entire campaign against him has been based on his lobbying career. The ads have written themselves.

True, but attack ads aren't exactly hard to make. If the November nominee is Kathleen Peters or some other legislator, they'll be attacked on their voting record. If it's Bev Young, they can point out that she is super nuts.

Bill Young Jr. might be a solid pick, but he doesn't seem the like political type.

Dismissing all lines of attack as equally harmful is a pretty ridiculous claim. Believable attacks on a candidate's biography and career are far more valuable than issue-based attacks on a voting record.

[Meeker]

DCCC filed a monster $570k ad buy against Jolly yesterday

[Meeker]

Here's the big outside TV spending in total... this doesn't include mail and online

Opposing Jolly
DCCC: $2,007k
House Majority PAC: $634k
ETA - League of Conservation Voters: $217k

Supporting Sink
Sierra Club: $100k

Opposing Sink
NRCC: $1,629k
Chamber of Commerce: $800k
American Action Network: $405k
American Crossroads: $325k

Supporting Jolly
Chamber of Commerce: $400k
NRCC: $234k

[Meeker]

Overby is just a protest vote anyways. Doesn't really matter who he is.

[Meeker]

The unpopularity of the President and Obamacare were obviously very important factors here. But this shouldn't be ignored:

In precincts Romney won, voter turnout was 58% of what it was in November 2012.

In precincts Obama won, voter turnout was 48.5% of what it was in November 2012.

In other words, Sink had a huge turnout disadvantage.

[Meeker]

The unpopularity of the President and Obamacare were obviously very important factors here. But this shouldn't be ignored:

In precincts Romney won, voter turnout was 58% of what it was in November 2012.

In precincts Obama won, voter turnout was 48.5% of what it was in November 2012.

In other words, Sink had a huge turnout disadvantage.

Probably the most important post in this thread. It's not Alex Sink's fault these voters didn't turn out. They simply don't care about politics enough to vote in off years and midterms. To them a special election for the House of Representatives is about as important as a special election for a school board vacancy is for political junkies.

How is it NOT Sink's fault? A campaign's job is to turnout its voters, Sink clearly failed at this.

There's only so much you can do to turn out voters who simply don't care.

These voters are low-info types, therefore you feed then info so that they do care. It's micro targeting 101

Sink and the DCCC invested more money into field than any U.S. House special election ever. You can only squeeze so much juice out of an orange.

[Meeker]

The unpopularity of the President and Obamacare were obviously very important factors here. But this shouldn't be ignored:

In precincts Romney won, voter turnout was 58% of what it was in November 2012.

In precincts Obama won, voter turnout was 48.5% of what it was in November 2012.

In other words, Sink had a huge turnout disadvantage.

Probably the most important post in this thread. It's not Alex Sink's fault these voters didn't turn out. They simply don't care about politics enough to vote in off years and midterms. To them a special election for the House of Representatives is about as important as a special election for a school board vacancy is for political junkies.

How is it NOT Sink's fault? A campaign's job is to turnout its voters, Sink clearly failed at this.

There's only so much you can do to turn out voters who simply don't care.

These voters are low-info types, therefore you feed then info so that they do care. It's micro targeting 101

Sink and the DCCC invested more money into field than any U.S. House special election ever. You can only squeeze so much juice out of an orange.

Source? It clearly wasn't enough...

You can go look up the FEC reports yourself.

You have wildly unrealistic expectations. They're field organizers, not magicians. Without the field program that was on the ground, Sink easily could've lost by 4 or 5.

[Meeker]

The unpopularity of the President and Obamacare were obviously very important factors here. But this shouldn't be ignored:

In precincts Romney won, voter turnout was 58% of what it was in November 2012.

In precincts Obama won, voter turnout was 48.5% of what it was in November 2012.

In other words, Sink had a huge turnout disadvantage.

Probably the most important post in this thread. It's not Alex Sink's fault these voters didn't turn out. They simply don't care about politics enough to vote in off years and midterms. To them a special election for the House of Representatives is about as important as a special election for a school board vacancy is for political junkies.

How is it NOT Sink's fault? A campaign's job is to turnout its voters, Sink clearly failed at this.

There's only so much you can do to turn out voters who simply don't care.

These voters are low-info types, therefore you feed then info so that they do care. It's micro targeting 101

Sink and the DCCC invested more money into field than any U.S. House special election ever. You can only squeeze so much juice out of an orange.

Source? It clearly wasn't enough...

You can go look up the FEC reports yourself.

You have wildly unrealistic expectations. They're field organizers, not magicians. Without the field program that was on the ground, Sink easily could've lost by 4 or 5.

And if the field organizers had better they could have easily gotten the extra 3000 votes. Good candidates win close races, Sink is neither a good candidate nor a good manager.

You've just got it all figured out, don't you?

[Meeker]

The unpopularity of the President and Obamacare were obviously very important factors here. But this shouldn't be ignored:

In precincts Romney won, voter turnout was 58% of what it was in November 2012.

In precincts Obama won, voter turnout was 48.5% of what it was in November 2012.

In other words, Sink had a huge turnout disadvantage.

Probably the most important post in this thread. It's not Alex Sink's fault these voters didn't turn out. They simply don't care about politics enough to vote in off years and midterms. To them a special election for the House of Representatives is about as important as a special election for a school board vacancy is for political junkies.

How is it NOT Sink's fault? A campaign's job is to turnout its voters, Sink clearly failed at this.

There's only so much you can do to turn out voters who simply don't care.

These voters are low-info types, therefore you feed then info so that they do care. It's micro targeting 101

Sink and the DCCC invested more money into field than any U.S. House special election ever. You can only squeeze so much juice out of an orange.

Source? It clearly wasn't enough...

You can go look up the FEC reports yourself.

You have wildly unrealistic expectations. They're field organizers, not magicians. Without the field program that was on the ground, Sink easily could've lost by 4 or 5.

And if the field organizers had better they could have easily gotten the extra 3000 votes. Good candidates win close races, Sink is neither a good candidate nor a good manager.

You've just got it all figured out, don't you?

No, just have a higher standard for the supposed "professionals". Why do you feel the need to carry water for Sink?

Why? Because there are people who just spent three or fourth months of their lives down there, working twelve-hour days, seven days a week, living on couches, and barely getting paid anything. And your suggestion to them is they should've just worked harder and been better?

You're both a prick and an idiot. And now you're on ignore. Have a nice life.