SC-04: Timmons once again has a primary challenger

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/TheCalvinCooli1/status/1725353102801269160
The chairman of the South Carolina Freedom Caucus (and an incumbent state representative) has announced he'll be primarying Rep. William Timmons.

Timmons only got 54% in his primary in 2022 against Pastor Mark Burns (who is kind of insane) so he does have a shot, as he's actually a serious candidate.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/TheCalvinCooli1/status/1725353102801269160
The chairman of the South Carolina Freedom Caucus (and an incumbent state representative) has announced he'll be primarying Rep. William Timmons.

Timmons only got 54% in his primary in 2022 against Pastor Mark Burns (who is kind of insane) so he does have a shot, as he's actually a serious candidate.

Timmons was kind of caught sleeping at the wheel in 2022. I think he'll be fine in 2024 even if the result is somewhat close.

[Vosem]

This seat tends to have a consistent pattern where it's really easy for a hard hard socon candidates combined to hit 40-45% or so but very hard for them to get that last bit across the finish line. (In his 2018 primary, Timmons beat Lee Bright -- much like Burns, a very extreme guy -- 54-46. In 2020 no one targeted him but he beat two hard socons combined 52-40 in 2022).

I could see him losing if he's caught sleeping at the wheel, and this is a place where a primary challenger would start with an unusually strong base, but at the same time I wouldn't say Timmons is disfavored or anything.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://www.greenvilleonline.com/story/news/2023/11/16/sc-rep-adam-morgan-announces-run-for-us-rep-william-timmons-seat/71589195007/?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot

Rep. Ralph Norman has endorsed Morgan

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

this is also one of those districts that will be trending D pretty quickly soon, as it's heavily urban and suburban. It's just that Greenville's suburbs are a lot more religious, white, and conservative. But that is slowly changing. If a crazy gets cemented in this seat, that might mean it's a possible, though slight stretch, pickup opportunity late in the decade

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

What has Timmons done to be so unpopular? There's plenty of regular party line Republicans who don't get crazy extreme socon primary challengers every cycle.

[Greedo punched first]

What has Timmons done to be so unpopular? There's plenty of regular party line Republicans who don't get crazy extreme socon primary challengers every cycle.

Nothing. The area just has many lunatics.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

What has Timmons done to be so unpopular? There's plenty of regular party line Republicans who don't get crazy extreme socon primary challengers every cycle.

I remember from his first campaign that most ads against him said "Timmons is TOO TAXING".

He's just not crazy enough for the crazies. This district has one of the largest (if not the largest) stores completely revolving around selling confederate (and paper-thin veiled racist) merchandise (https://dixierepublic.com/), if you want an example of the craziness.

The way he loses won't be because he pisses off the crazies, there's not enough of them that vote R in this area to overpower him right now. It'll be if the affluent R suburbanites start voting D as they have in other cities nationwide. Then he loses a primary because his previous voters aren't part of the party anymore.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

What has Timmons done to be so unpopular? There's plenty of regular party line Republicans who don't get crazy extreme socon primary challengers every cycle.

Greenville has been a mix of “sane establishment” republicans and far right Trump cultists. This same seat elected Jim DeMint, Bob Inglis, and Trey Gowdy. It’s a little all over the map.