Sabato Initial Senate Rankings

[smoltchanov]

Manchin votes with McConnell about half the time, because he has to pretend to be a democrat to stay in their caucus. Jenkins would obviously vote with McConnell far more often, so McConnell wants Jenkins instead. But neither Manchin or Jenkins are democrats, they are former democrats. It's just that Jenkins has gone full R while Manchin is taking a center-right tack atm.

There's actually such a thing as a "Conservative Democrat;" amazing, I know! But simply because they aren't sufficiently liberal for Dwarven's preferences doesn't disqualify them from being a Democrat. Not all Democrats are going to be minorities or cosmopolitan; if we're to have a functioning, competitive, national party we'll need support from people like Manchin and the socially conservative, largely rural voters in states like West Virginia. The more Democratic officials we have, the better; the less elitist our party appears, the better.

+100. While Vermont, Connecticut or Massachusetts Republican can be to the left of Louisiana, Mississippi, or Arkansas (or for that matter - Alaska) Democrat, in almost all states the most conservative Democratic legislators now are at least slightly to the left of the most liberal Republican legislators (unlike what was 30-40 years ago, when in many states you could easily  find a Republican legislator well to the left of his/her Democratic colleague). Political polarization, which reached idiotically high levels of late, makes election as boring as never: an horde of fanatic right-wingers against almost equal one of left loonies. Boring!!!!!

[smoltchanov]

Manchin votes with McConnell about half the time, because he has to pretend to be a democrat to stay in their caucus. Jenkins would obviously vote with McConnell far more often, so McConnell wants Jenkins instead. But neither Manchin or Jenkins are democrats, they are former democrats. It's just that Jenkins has gone full R while Manchin is taking a center-right tack atm.

That's not true and you know it. Manchin votes with Schumer and other liberal Democrats 90%+ of the time. Of course Schumer will allow him to vote for some of Trump's nominees as long as he doesn't cast the deciding vote. Heck, Manchin endorsed a presidential candidate who called the voters in his state racist, sexist deplorable scum. What further evidence do you need?  

This is as stupid as saying Susan Collins is a Democrat.

Why is it so difficult to say the truth? Manchin is a moderate Democrat, but moderate Democrats are considered to be a "conservatives" in present day Democratic party. There are no more really conservative Democrats in high elected positions (even people like Jim Justice are moderate too) - not only compared with really conservative Democrats of not so distant past (1960th - 1990th), but with such recent Democratic congressmen as Walt Minnick, Bobby Bright, Travis Childers and their like. Only in state legislatures and local offices we can still find a few resembling real conservatives (and even them - usually moderate-conservatives). And vice versa among Republicans: Collins is a moderate even "the most moderate in whole caucus", but only by present day standards. She would be considered "somewhat right of center" in 1960th-1990th (surely - no comparison with Javits, Case or Brooke in Senate or Whalen, Reid and some other in House), and is "less liberal" then Morella, Shays, Boehlert and other, who served until recently. And even the most moderate Republican governors (Baker, Scott) are exactly that - moderates. Again - there are few left-of-center (up to moderate-liberal) Republicans in state legislatures and local offices, and that's all. It's so simple...

[smoltchanov]

But it is ultimately Texas, and Republicans don't need to really turn out in large numbers to win (not that they don't), unlike Democrats. Especially in a midterm.

Texas was closer than Ohio in 2016... and moving more Dem ever day... Couple that with mid term turnout in TX below 30%... with the right match up, Dems can with via a strong turn out push (Castro v Cruz is the best matchup for such a possibility)

You predict an ideal situation for Democrats. I doubt it will happen. Democrats have enormous ability "to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory" as 2010, 2014 and 2016 have shown. Not vice versa. It's my habit now to take a reeasonable election forecast and move it couple of seats for Senate and Governors and 5-10 for House in Republican favor. That "skewed" prediction usully ends to be very close to reality..