NATIONAL SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS THREAD (LATE RESULTS/POSTMORTEM)

[Torie]

Hello all. Well it was exciting when I saw the Pubbie up 10% in IN-02 when I arrived at the gym. I was thinking maybe an 80 seat gain based on that. But by the end of my workout, it was even, and the Dem Donnelly will win by 1,000 votes or so, after I checked what was out, and how many votes were out (not many). So Nate Silver with having Donnelly up by 2% on a plus GOP 54 seat model, translates pretty well into the 60 or so seat gain that I think at least Fox is projecting. Look at the IN-01 results. Skin tight, with about 25% of the votes in. Granted, I have not checked where they were from. IN-01 was my wild guess sleeper seat.

So, without parsing more data other than what I watched on the tube, it does look like 55-65 seats to me - for the moment.

[Torie]

It looks to me that Toomey probably has it. The GOP bastions have not been heard from yet nearly as much as Philly (Lancaster is only about a third in for example) which has largely shot its wad. The margins for Sestak in the Philly burbs are narrow. But that is just a quick and dirty look at it all. Sestak is doing very poorly in Western PA, just terrible.

[Torie]

Nunnelee still down by double-digits with 50% in, Taylor down by 3 with 50% in. Skelton down by 9 with 43% in. Pallone and Holt ahead in NJ. Barela and Heinrich tied in NM-01, Pearce up 62-38. Hall down big in NY-19, Hinchey up by 12 in NY-22. Etheridge and Ellmers tied in NC-02. McIntyre, Kissell, Shuler up. Berg up in ND. WTF, Paula Brooks ahead in OH-13?

Childers has the edge over Nunnelee, but with 56% of the vote in, and only 26% in from De Soto, it will be very tight. That seat cannot be called.

[Torie]

Toomey is going to win by about 30,000-50,000 votes or so.  Unless that 3% remaining in Philly is full of mischief, or the Montco votes not counted are all in Chiselham township (sp), and then it will be a tie. Clear advantage Toomey - almost a call to my mind.

[Torie]

Fiorina and Whitman both down 10% in the exit polls. The exit polls probably have a pretty heavy Dem bias, but both will probably lose. Murray up by a few points, but how can one do an exit poll, when nobody shows up physically to vote?  

[Torie]

As I mentioned long ago...

The path to victory in PA is either...
Super-overperformance in Philadelphia (over 500,000 votes at +80%), and Pittsburgh and very few other counties.
Very good performance in Philadelphia (over 400,000 votes at +80%), and Pittsburgh and several counties
Good performance in Philadelphia (over 300,000 votes at +80%), and Pittsburgh and very many other counties.

Unfortunately Sestak falls in none of the three.
He had very good performance in Philadelphia (over 429k at 84.1%! which pretty much eclipses Casey's performance), did alright in Pittsburgh (over 408k at 55%, but doesnt match Casey's 459k at 64.9%), but didn't win enough other counties.

If anyone had any doubts about Montgomery county being democratic, it is erased with this election.  Depending on how you equate things, Montgomery is either the 3rd or 4th most democratic county in PA (i say that because Delaware shows greater margins, but has fewer voters).

Delaware was Sestak's home county, and his seat was taken over by a Pubbie, and easily by an 11% margin. I agree with you on Montco. Montco was not hit that hard by the economic malaise, and does indeed have lots of folks who in the NY area, would live in Manhattan, on top of a fairly substantial black percentage. But Philly isn't Manhattan, so they live in the close in burbs. One killer for Sestak, is that Toomey is doing just fine in Chester County. That is a snap back county, along with Delaware, if Sestak was not from there.

[Torie]

Upstate NY update...

NY-19: 20% in, Hall down by ten.
NY-20: 32% in, Murphy down by ten.
NY-29: 19% in, Owens up by about three.
NY-24: 27% in, Arcuri down by eleven.
NY-22: 45% in, Hinchey up by nine.
NY-25: 20% in, Maffei down by two.
NY-29: 38% in, R lead of eleven.
NY-27: 12% in, Higgins up by five.

Very ugly for the Dems, but absent looking where the votes are from  ...

But NY-19 is not that heterogenious, so Hall is probably done, along with Murphy of course.

[Torie]

But NY-19 is not that heterogeneous, so Hall is probably done, along with Murphy of course.

I haven't checked back on CT, but I can take some solace that your brief prediction of double digit Republican congressmen from New England didn't come to pass.

I didn't predict it, I laughed at it - subtly. But I have not checked NE. I know the GOP got no seats in Mass, which I expected. I have not checked CT-4 and CT-5.

[Torie]

I put my mouse over Washington, and Rossi was up 6% with about 800,000 votes in, but no county results. That was on the CNN webstate. Is this real?

Addendum. CNN on the air has it now a Rossi lead of 8%.

[Torie]

WTF Nevada??

All, and I mean all, the votes are from Clark County. The networks are such a joke. Pathetic!

[Torie]

Actually I was wrong, and Angle is losing Washoe County by a bit, with a lot of votes in. All these are early votes, and the polls said Angle would do much better with the today votes. We shall see, but Angle is in deep trouble.

But when you consider that the early votes were about evenly split in partisan affiliation ... ?

[Torie]

OK, they can call California for Brown and Boxer already, seeing as they're leading and the state always becomes more Democratic as the night goes on.

Absentees (and that is what the CA vote is at the moment) used to be more heavily GOP by a substantial margin, but in the past 10 years that has largely disappeared. But given the exit poll, and the absentee numbers (narrow Dem leads), unless there are big county discrepancies, the Pubbies in CA are done.

[Torie]

But NY-19 is not that heterogenious, so Hall is probably done, along with Murphy of course.

I haven't checked back on CT, but I can take some solace that your brief prediction of double digit Republican congressmen from New England didn't come to pass.

I didn't predict it, I laughed at it - subtely. But I have not checked NE. I know the GOP got no seats in Mass, which I expected. I have not checked CT-4 and CT-5.

Yeah, I knew it was hyperbole... am still curious if Republicans pick up anything outside NH.

They didn't, but it does look like Bass will win, so they get both NH seats.

[Torie]

The Times appears to have called NY-19 and NY-20.  Glad to see some recovery here despite the mess that was Paladino.

Grimm (R) was up by 3.5 in NY-13 with about 75% in.  Last I checked, a little more was out from Brooklyn than Staten Island.  Thus far, he's winning SI by 5, losing Brooklyn by 4.

Some network called it for Grimm. That is a big upset. New York in down ballot races was not kind to Dems.

[Torie]

How many blue dogs have survived? We have Holden, and Altmire, and Critz barely if you consider him a blue dog, and that guy in KY-6 barely, and maybe a seat in Georgia, and after that ... ?

I sure there may be a couple of others, but that is all I can think of at the moment. It has been slaughter alley. The parties are moving to rather clean ideological breaks, like a parliamentary system.

[Torie]

so, project the rest out for me, guys....what is the current expected GOP net in the House when it is all said and done?  50? 60? 70?

Somewhere in between 60 and 70.

Nate Silver says, albeit 20 minutes ago:

There are now relatively few competitive House races yet to be called. Our model thinks that, by the time the night is over, Republican gains will be within the range of 62 to 72 seats.

[Torie]

Buck is in deep trouble absent that 40,000 error which I just read above.  In fact, really almost time to call it.

[Torie]

Great work Lief. Thanks for setting me straight. Not that I consider all on your list remotely blue dogs, but they are not in the forefront of the "yes we can" agenda either.

Plus 65 seats eh, Cinyc? What was my predicted number again?    By the way, it is 64, with probably 3 or 4 on either side of that. The Pubbie is not going to win CT-4. Look at what's out.

Sure, I got about 15 seats wrong, but they went both ways. Sometimes statistics works in your favor. And I suspect the generic number I used to generate the number was pretty close too.

[Torie]

Oberstar will clearly win in MN-8, even though he is behind at the moment. That will make BRTD happy.   And Giffords will probably pull it out, unless what is remaining in Tuscon versus the rest in Pima County is decidedly more Pubbie.

[Torie]

The GOP shot its was in Yuma County, and came up a bit short. AZ-7 stays Dem. AZ-08 is about certain to remain Dem, in fact I really should call that one too. And Labrador has won ID-01, over the Dem Minnick. If it has not been called, it should.

It is possible that the GOP will gain no seats in CA. Stay tuned. The GOP margins with mostly just absentee ballots are very thin in CA-11 and CA-20, and Tran is behind by 5 points in CA-47, although with the Vietnamese thing, maybe absentees there will have less of a lean.

Oh, and Djou is behind a tad in the absentees. He is in trouble.

[Torie]

    Seems Labrador is leading Minnick by 8%.

And the bulk of what is left is in Labrador country in Ada County. This one is over.

[Torie]

Now if I could only figure out exactly what was left in St. Louis County.  Do they even know?

How many precincts in St. Louis County are GOP?  Oberstar has won unless I missed something.

[Torie]

When I looked 45 minutes ago, it was listed as 22% in from St. Louis County, and in fact it was much higher, and now 97%

St. Louis
Updated 11 minutes ago
Oberstar
(Incumbent)
   
47,468
   57%
Cravaack
   
32,968
   40%
97% of precincts reporting

Addendum: And for the rest of the story we have this:

Isanti
Updated 1 minute ago
Cravaack
   
4,970
   55%
Oberstar
(Incumbent)
   
3,512
   39%
67% of precincts reporting

And what little is out in other counties, is slightly pro the Pubbie.

Oberstar has lost!

Addendum 2: BRTD, the reason St. Louis County was anemic for Oberstar was the abortion issue. Deal with it. Dayton is carrying it by a much bigger margin. Sure send Obama a message in a way a governor's race just doesn't have quite as much traction (particularly in a state not as economically prostrate as most), was part of it too.

[Torie]

When I looked 45 minutes ago, it was listed as 22% in from St. Louis County, and in fact it was much higher, and now 97%

St. Louis
Updated 11 minutes ago
Oberstar
(Incumbent)
   
47,468
   57%
Cravaack
   
32,968
   40%
97% of precincts reporting

So, after being king of Kentucky for today by nailing Rand Paul's numbers (56-44) and the Dem holds there, if I call Dayton by 1, Walz wins and Oberstar loses, do I get to be king of Minnesota for a day?

Minnesota is definitely a step up from KY. 

[Torie]

Looking at CA-20, we have 91% in from Fresno, which Costa is winning 63-37, 77% in from Kern, which Costa is winning 60-40 and only absentees from Kings, which Vidak is winning 71-29.

Contrast that with McNerney's places out, which appear to be much more favorable.

Kings is clearly not all absentees Sam:

Here are the numbers from 2008:

Fresno
Costa
42,840    79%
Lopez 11,405    21%

Kern
Costa 28,301    78%
Lopez 8,183    22%

Kings

Costa  21,882    64%
Lopez 12,530     36%

And 2010 so far:

Fresno
1:46 a.m. EDT, Nov 3, 2010
Costa  10,420    63%
Vidak     5,999  37%
91% of precincts reporting
Kern
Costa 5,874    60%
Vidak 3,890     40%
77% of precincts reporting
Kings
2:18 a.m. EDT, Nov 3, 2010
Vidak 10,893     71%
Costa 4,506    29%
0% of precincts reporting

They are all absentees I suspect. In any event, the precincts reporting are BS.