Colorado 2008

[Smash255]

What, the 2nd district is hardly a battleground. I doubt the GOP will even really target this year despite being an open seat.

Congratulations on missing my point!

(FYI, when it was last open (1998) Udall won by just 2.4%. Things have obviously changed in Colorado since then... that's part of my point. The other part is to point out that things could (no, will. This is Colorado so the word has to be will) change again at some point in the (probably not all that distant) future).

Politics are cranky in Colorado.  They change all the time.  But that doesn't mean that Colorado grows more or less conservative.  What's so interesting about Colorado is that while being a fundamentally conservative place--except for Boulder and Denver (which make up less than 15% of the state's total population)--Colorado is always in play for both parties.

Colorado is no less conservative now than it was in 2000--it's just that the Democrats have crafted a great plan that beats Republicans.  The Democrats have three major millionaires that almost entirely fund Democratic campaigns, and the Dems have built a great infrastructure that can finally compete with the Republicans.  And it can't help when you run centrist Democrats, either.

So I caution you to note that Colorado may be turning to the Democrats--but it is not turning to the left.  That means that the GOP is far from done in this state.  2008 could be a big suprise for either party.

The state is tuning left their is no denying that fact.  I know you may want to think the state isn't turning left, but reality is that the state is.  Casing point look at how the state compares to the national average on the Presidential level and how it has moved since 96.  in 96 the state was almost 10 points more Republican than the national average, by 2004 with a Democratic Presidential candidate who was quite a bit more liberal than Clinton and a northeast liberal at that, the state was only 2 points more GOP than the national average.  Thats a monster swing on the Presidential level.  This just isn't about the Democratic pickups on the statewide level, that is a real huge swing on the Presidential level and on top of that happening while going from a moderate Democrat to a liberal Democrat on the Presidential level, which even further proves the point about the leftward swing of the state.

[Smash255]

Rawlings

As Alcon mentioned the Arizona ballot measure also banned Civil unions.  While Colorado voted against Civil Unions, they did NOT vote against having a state Amendment banning it either.  It would have failed if they did.

You state that the state was moving toward the Dems a bit, but not towards the left and the Dem movement would stop because the Dems are moving left.  Well that just doesn't add up to what has happened in your state especially in regards to the Presidential results.  John Kerry is clearly more liberal than Bill Clinton was, yet the state was about 10 points more gOP in 96 than the national average and barley 2 more points GOP in 04 than the national average with the liberal John Kerry.  For one you simply can't ignore that shify.  You said its insignificant, but that is a very large shift.  Not to mention to move that much in the Democratic direction and when going from a moderate Democrat to a liberal Democrat is even more proof that it was moving to the left. 

If the state would stop its Democratic shift as you claim it will because the party has moved to the left, the shift in the first place would have never happened because it wouldn't have shifted that far in the Dem direction with the liberal John Kerry as the Dem nominee.

Colorado is in the midst of not only a strong Democratic shift, but a strong leftward shift and it just can't be denied.

[Smash255]

It could be argued that Colorado isn't trending Democratic and that is just repeating a trend as they have lected very liberal people before for example Gary Hart.

I don't know why that wouldn't be considered trending Democratic, however. Ohio was once a Democratic stronghold, then it went GOP, now it's trending Democratic again. Simple enough. The same could go for Colorado (except it doesn't; Colorado hasn't been near the center of the spectrum in decades, and 1964 was more of a fluke than anything else given the results of the surrounding years).

It could be argued that Colorado is trending Democratic for the time being which I think it is. The same goes for Ohio too.

Colorado, New Hampshire and Ohio are a number of states all trending Democratic; there may be others that I have not mentioned.  Georgia and Louisiana are two states trending Republican - I am not sure of any others.

Florida is a Republican state just look at it, For example in 2000 Bush won it by what 500 Votes? Then in 2004 he won it by a comfortable margin, Also look at their Governor's race this year, The Republican held the Governor's mansion by a good margin despite it being a very Democratic year, Also Bill Nelson would have been in big trouble this year had it been a more Republican year and the Republican canidate being more sane. MI could also be trending Republican but if it is it's trending slowly.     

Hard to say.  I think Florida has moved slightly GOP, but not to the extent you think.  Its basically the same level it was against the national average in 96.  It was basically 2.5 points more GOP than the national average, after being .5% more Republican than the national average in  2000.  Some movement not a ton, and it moved to about where it was in 96 (about 3 points more GOP than the national average.

Also Charlie Crist being a moderate did help the Gov race there.  If he was more conservative, it would have been closer. 

[Smash255]

Personally, I'm really not sure if an abortion ban amendment is going to help all that much in a presidential year.

One thing the group may have forgotten (taking the average of the last 3 SUSA polls on Colorado) the state is about 58% pro choice 38% pro life.  Oops.

[Smash255]

with Obama about 2-3 points more Dem than the national average