Republicans On the Run: Loss of the House Increasingly Likely

[Nym90]

I think that the Republicans are at a huge disadvantage right now, in terms of that Bush's approval ratings are dragging them down. I don't think that running away from Bush will work for the Republicans. Their best bet right now is to focus on terrorism, but you can only ride that so far.

The biggest problem for Bush seems to be that he is viewed as out of touch and borderline incompetent by many moderates and independents. Katrina, Iraq, the Dubai Ports World issue, etc. have all contributed to this. Regardless of whether it is true or not, perception is reality.

[Nym90]

I think that the Republicans are at a huge disadvantage right now, in terms of that Bush's approval ratings are dragging them down. I don't think that running away from Bush will work for the Republicans. Their best bet right now is to focus on terrorism, but you can only ride that so far.

The biggest problem for Bush seems to be that he is viewed as out of touch and borderline incompetent by many moderates and independents. Katrina, Iraq, the Dubai Ports World issue, etc. have all contributed to this. Regardless of whether it is true or not, perception is reality.

NYm!  I haven't seen one of your posts in about a thousand years.  How the hell are you man?  Well, anyway, yeah, that's about right.  The gop best bet is terrorism (and I'd suggest immigration, though that might put a dent in the bandwagon that they have built with about a third of the latino electorate).  Democrats are going to pound on that Katrina issue, but I think its useless, because most democrats and republicans are smart enough to know that natural disasters and other "acts of god" are non-partisan.  (gods are as well, I suspect, but don't tell these guys that!)  Democrats would do well to focus on the elitism and cronyism and the general secrecy of the Bush administration.  Seriously, good to read a nym90 post again, you crazy leftist bastard.

Thanks Angus. Good to see you again too. I'm not quite as crazy or as much of a bastard as I was before. Is that good or bad? Who knows.

I agree that corruption is another big issue that hurts the GOP right now. The whole Abramoff scandal, Duke Cunningham, Delay, etc. None of them are huge in and of themselves, but after a while it kind of piles up. Same thing with Katrina, it's not really an issue in and of itself, but it adds to a general perception of incompetence that has been building from other issues. Suicide by a thousand cuts, if you will.

But the Democrats do need a clear plan. If they don't have one, they won't win. They need to have their own version of the Contract with America.

[Nym90]

I agree completely about Iraq, Angus. The longer the whole thing goes on without any perceived progress, the more frustrated people get.

As for Clinton being held responsible for failing to take on terrorism, I don't deny there's some truth in that, but the Republican majority in Congress wasn't exactly talking about it either. I don't think anyone was taking the issue seriously. Bush hardly said anything about it in his campaign in 2000 or as president prior to 9/11. Hindsight is always 20/20. To his credit, Clinton did at least attempt to go after Bin Laden in his last years in office, though the GOP discredited it as a "wag the dog" situation during the Lewinsky affair (again, charges that are not without merit, but create some pretty bad quotes on the part of Republicans in retrospect).

People are always short sighted about potential threats until it's too late. I agree that Clinton could have done more, but no one at the time was focused on terrorism from either party. I don't see how the GOP criticizing Clinton about terrorism now would make any sense since they didn't do it in 2000.

I agree about the Senate possibly being more in play than the House due to gerrymandering. However, the Democrats do have to defend more seats overall than the Republicans in the Senate, which makes the task more difficult there. Although the geography of where Senate seats are being contested does favor the Democrats.

Chicago did have the United States's tallest building prior to 9/11, BTW.