Conservatives have been in denial about Virginia for years

[Non Swing Voter]

http://archive.redstate.com/stories/archived/virginia_not_blue_yet

I like this part the best:

"Democratic victories in two high-profile Virginia campaigns over the last couple of years were the result of a "perfect storm" rather than a "purpling" of the Commonwealth. Any assertion that NoVA can now be reliably depended upon to deliver Democratic victories in statewide races is premature, at best."

I guess the two senate victories + two presidential victories after Webb were all perfect storms.  The weather has been real stormy here the last 6 years.

It's funny because if you recycle this article and just post it here, it's basically the same thing board conservatives are saying now.  "Obama's victory was the perfect storm because he brought out black voters... NOVA won't carry the state in future elections... etc."

[Non Swing Voter]

No they haven't stop using selective articles to help yourself feel secure about the success of your party. It's like wishful thinking about having more money in the future. You're trolling.

Selective articles about conservatives in denial... you're the epitome of a conservative in denial.  You argue against every post that says Virginia is moving to the left and just say elections go in cycles.  You also ignore posts with extensive data about Virginia's demographic and population changes, but then write terse arguments regarding more general articles.  Virginia is gone for your party...  Even the current Governor admits that the growth of NOVA is making it very hard for Republicans to win Virginia in a national election, especially if they espouse conservative views.

In 10 years NOVA will be about 40% of the statewide vote.  Good luck winning a statewide election when nearly half the electorate are liberal DC area voters.  I guess you guys can just cut into the huge margins Democrats get in Richmond and the black areas downstate...

[Non Swing Voter]

No they haven't stop using selective articles to help yourself feel secure about the success of your party. It's like wishful thinking about having more money in the future. You're trolling.

Selective articles about conservatives in denial... you're the epitome of a conservative in denial.  You argue against every post that says Virginia is moving to the left and just say elections go in cycles.  You also ignore posts with extensive data about Virginia's demographic and population changes, but then write terse arguments regarding more general articles.  Virginia is gone for your party...  Even the current Governor admits that the growth of NOVA is making it very hard for Republicans to win Virginia in a national election, especially if they espouse conservative views.

In 10 years NOVA will be about 40% of the statewide vote.  Good luck winning a statewide election when nearly half the electorate are liberal DC area voters.  I guess you guys can just cut into the huge margins Democrats get in Richmond and the black areas downstate...

You are wrong. I've agreed that Virginia has been moving to the left, but it's not enough yet to go against a Republican winner. By 2016 it might be a different story or it might not. As I've stated Obama is a tremendous candidate for Virginia so the results in the last two elections have been skewed slightly to the left for the state. This is all because big government in D.C. is bleeding into our state. Some people may be in denial but what are you getting at?

Bull.  Virginia could almost certainly go against a Republican winner.  It was about where the popular vote was the last election and as you've just admitted it is moving left.  Thus it follows that if it was where the country was at in 2012 but is moving left, it could very well be to the left of the country in 2016.  Which any sane, rational person would know is true. 

I don't think you actually live in Virginia.  Your avatar flipped to Virginia recently and you seem to know nothing about Virginia politics.

[Non Swing Voter]

No they haven't stop using selective articles to help yourself feel secure about the success of your party. It's like wishful thinking about having more money in the future. You're trolling.

Selective articles about conservatives in denial... you're the epitome of a conservative in denial.  You argue against every post that says Virginia is moving to the left and just say elections go in cycles.  You also ignore posts with extensive data about Virginia's demographic and population changes, but then write terse arguments regarding more general articles.  Virginia is gone for your party...  Even the current Governor admits that the growth of NOVA is making it very hard for Republicans to win Virginia in a national election, especially if they espouse conservative views.

In 10 years NOVA will be about 40% of the statewide vote.  Good luck winning a statewide election when nearly half the electorate are liberal DC area voters.  I guess you guys can just cut into the huge margins Democrats get in Richmond and the black areas downstate...

You are wrong. I've agreed that Virginia has been moving to the left, but it's not enough yet to go against a Republican winner. By 2016 it might be a different story or it might not. As I've stated Obama is a tremendous candidate for Virginia so the results in the last two elections have been skewed slightly to the left for the state. This is all because big government in D.C. is bleeding into our state. Some people may be in denial but what are you getting at?

Bull.  Virginia could almost certainly go against a Republican winner.  It was about where the popular vote was the last election and as you've just admitted it is moving left.  Thus it follows that if it was where the country was at in 2012 but is moving left, it could very well be to the left of the country in 2016.  Which any sane, rational person would know is true. 

I don't think you actually live in Virginia.  Your avatar flipped to Virginia recently and you seem to know nothing about Virginia politics.

I do live in Virginia and used to live in Florida. In 2016 I expect Virginia to be right where the national vote is give or take a point or two.

So in other words you are retracting your prior statement that Virginia will not go against a Republican winner... since you are saying that it could be a point or two left of the national vote...

[Non Swing Voter]

No not exactly. It will be within the national vote within a point or two to the right or left. It's not a guarantee that it will fall on one side or the other because Obama did skew the results ahead of what they would've been. If a Republican were to win the election without the popular vote then I can see Virginia voting against the GOP nominee, but think about the electoral votes. In order for either party to win a close election, they'd almost have to win Virginia. So not only is it highly unlikely for Virginia to go against a Republican winner, but also highly unlikely for it to go against a Democrat winner. If I had a gun to my head I'd put Virginia 0.73 points to the right of the nation, but my prediction will be better when I look at polls the night before the election.

How did he do that?

He brought out a higher black vote compared to most states.

Do you honestly think upwards of 150,000 black people in Virginia would not have voted but for Obama being on the ballot?  You don't think Democrats would have pushed their turnout knowing 9 out of 10 would vote Democrat?

Even if black turnout goes down in next few cycles, it won't matter.  Republican parts of the state are shrinking.  Democratic parts are expanding.  In fact, a lot of growth is among black people getting priced out of DC and moving to the cheaper parts of NOVA.

[Non Swing Voter]

Obama isn't the most important factor. He certainly did better than other Democrats would've done in 2008 or 2012 though.

What makes you think that "[Obama] certainly did better than other Democrats would've done in 2008 or 2012" ?

As I've said he brought out the black vote in higher numbers and his ideology of government being the answer to every toothache fits well with government employees and politicians in northern Virginia.

You've just disregarded everything I've just said.

How could you think Obama didn't benefit in Virginia from being black?

It's safe to see that his ground game and probably race as well helped boost black turnout in some of the downstate precincts.  I also think the reverse was true in southwestern Virginia... white voters probably turned out against him in greater numbers than if Hillary was the nominee.

But that wasn't the tipping point, there simply was not that much greater turnout of black voters to be the only factor...

The bigger issue is Northern Virginia's population gains and Southwestern Virginia's population losses.  Obama racked up huge margins in NOVA counties that aren't even that black.  It is the growth of the DC suburbs that is absolutely killing the GOP in Virginia and it's happening faster than you think.

Not only are the suburbs growing, they are leaning more and more heavily towards the democratic party.  I don't think Republicans have a single senate seat in NOVA anymore and I think the house members are pretty vulnerable. 

Additionally, when the silver line (finally) gets completed, I expect even bigger and more rapid growth in the further out parts of Fairfax.  It will make Fairfax more appealing to city-dwellers who lean far to the left.

So while I won't deny that black turnout was probably pretty good in Virginia last year, you're missing the bigger picture here.  NOVA is growing rapidly, 2016 will be a totally different electorate than 2012.

[Non Swing Voter]

In the future democrats won't have to do as well with the black vote to win Virginia.  Most of their increased support (even in 2008 and 2012) was among their urban coalition, which was mostly highly educated whites and minorities of various racial groups.  If you look at most of the precincts in Fairfax, Alexandria, Arlington that Obama got huge margins in, they are mostly very affluent and have a black population lower than the state average of 20%.  Those areas are growing at a higher rate than the rest of the state (by far) and they are giving democrats larger margins.  So it's safe to assume that the trendlines for democratic growth in Virginia have little to do with the black population and all to do with educated DC suburban voters increasing as a share of the state population.

The black population is a key part of the state coalition, but it's becoming a smaller and smaller part of it.  The democrats just need to maintain solid numbers among that group and not let their turnout fall to dismal levels.  There is no evidence that either event will happen even with Obama off the ticket.  As others have mentioned, even Kerry got solid margins among black voters and their turnout level was fine as well. 

What democrats do need to focus on is turning out Asians and Hispanics in Northern Virginia in greater numbers, especially in the counties right outside Fairfax.  If the democrats can get NOVA to supply 40% of the statewide vote in the future, there is almost no conceivable way Republicans can win a statewide race.  NOVA (at 40%) + College Towns + Richmond + Black downstate counties = an insurmountable margin for Republicans to overcome under the current political alignments.

If I were the Virginia GOP, I would give up on social issues (immediately) and focus on local issues like traffic congestion, taxes, schools, things suburbanites care about.

[Non Swing Voter]

Non-swing voter,

We see you're a non-swing voter and we see why. The last time I checked Obama won Virginia last year. Whether or not it was because he was the Democratic nominee will never be known but isn't likely. You say it voted Democrat not Obama. The last time I checked Obama was the 2012 Democratic nominee. If I didn't know better I'd say you're in denial about Virginia being a battleground state. It's almost as if you only read liberal leaning articles. You definitely aren't a swing voter.

Thanks.  I am not a swing voter.  You are probably not a Virginia voter.  A few months ago you were a Florida voter.  Now you're an expert on Virginia politics. 

Last time I checked, Kaine and Warner were not named "Obama" either.  In fact, they seemed to historically do even better than he did.  So was that a result of unprecedented black voting margins too?  You're almost as fringe as that Waukesha nut.

[Non Swing Voter]

Obama isn't the most important factor. He certainly did better than other Democrats would've done in 2008 or 2012 though.

What makes you think that "[Obama] certainly did better than other Democrats would've done in 2008 or 2012" ?

As I've said he brought out the black vote in higher numbers and his ideology of government being the answer to every toothache fits well with government employees and politicians in northern Virginia.

You've just disregarded everything I've just said.

How could you think Obama didn't benefit in Virginia from being black?

It's safe to see that his ground game and probably race as well helped boost black turnout in some of the downstate precincts.  I also think the reverse was true in southwestern Virginia... white voters probably turned out against him in greater numbers than if Hillary was the nominee.

But that wasn't the tipping point, there simply was not that much greater turnout of black voters to be the only factor...

The bigger issue is Northern Virginia's population gains and Southwestern Virginia's population losses.  Obama racked up huge margins in NOVA counties that aren't even that black.  It is the growth of the DC suburbs that is absolutely killing the GOP in Virginia and it's happening faster than you think.

Not only are the suburbs growing, they are leaning more and more heavily towards the democratic party.  I don't think Republicans have a single senate seat in NOVA anymore and I think the house members are pretty vulnerable. 

Additionally, when the silver line (finally) gets completed, I expect even bigger and more rapid growth in the further out parts of Fairfax.  It will make Fairfax more appealing to city-dwellers who lean far to the left.

So while I won't deny that black turnout was probably pretty good in Virginia last year, you're missing the bigger picture here.  NOVA is growing rapidly, 2016 will be a totally different electorate than 2012.

I never said Virginia isn't trending Democratic. It's been noticeable for a quarter of a century.

The GOP isn't doing very well on the federal level in Virginia lately now is it?  Care to explain why?  HINT: The last 3 elected senators there were not named Obama nor were they black...

[Non Swing Voter]

If we can't eat into the north, then we'll be stuck under 300 EV. PA, NH, and possibly ME are the only winnable ones unless Christie runs and then NJ.

Isn't that the big worry among Republican strategists?  That it's becoming harder and harder for their candidate to have a clear path to winning.  They're having to depend more and more on winning just about every toss-up and/or getting slight upsets in Dem. leaning states.  Where as the Dem. candidate only has to win the states they're suppose to win plus one or maybe two battleground states.

Pretty much.  The states that both Gore and Kerry won are still pretty solid for the Democrats, with maybe 1 or 2 shifting to battleground states.

New Mexico has now moved to solid Democrat.  Nevada is really there as well. 

If you throw in Virginia and Colorado, which are trending fast, it starts to become almost impossible for the GOP to win without some upsets.

[Non Swing Voter]

They've been in denial about a lot of other things for a lot longer, though.

like what

Evolution for one.  Which is probably why they don't understand changing demographics either.

[Non Swing Voter]

VA was R+3 in 1980 not R+21. The demographic changes began well before the 2000s though and similar trend in the Atlanta suburbs down in Georgia should be a warning sign for the GOP too.

I've come to the conclusion that the [fill in the blank suburbs] in [fill in almost any state with a large urban center] should be a warning sign for the GOP.  I'm convinced that the GOP as a party is simply screwed everywhere unless they radically change their message. 

[Non Swing Voter]

VA was R+3 in 1980 not R+21. The demographic changes began well before the 2000s though and similar trend in the Atlanta suburbs down in Georgia should be a warning sign for the GOP too.

prescient