Conservatives have been in denial about Virginia for years

[hopper]

Obama being black is not a big selling point for a majority of black voters. I mean even John Kerry got 88% of the Black Vote in 2004 nationally. The Republicans usually get 9-12% of the Black Vote in Presidential Elections in the last 30+ years. So Obama got 95% and 93% of the Black Vote in 2008 and 2012 respectively nationally. So a difference of maybe +5-7 percentage points in 2008 and in 2012 3-5 points of what the Dems get of the Black Vote usually  in the past 30+ years of presidential elections.

[hopper]

NM and Ohio as well as Ia and NH is Hillary country. The GOP winning strategy isn't there in Ohio as we can see Bush needed 20 percent of the Black vote in Ohio. The others can be argued.

I thought Bush W. won 15% of the Black Vote in Ohio not 20%. I don't know about Iowa and New Hampshire being Hillary Country both have a lot of moderate voters. Hillary will probably win New Mexico I'll give you that,

[hopper]

If we can't eat into the north, then we'll be stuck under 300 EV. PA, NH, and possibly ME are the only winnable ones unless Christie runs and then NJ.

Isn't that the big worry among Republican strategists?  That it's becoming harder and harder for their candidate to have a clear path to winning.  They're having to depend more and more on winning just about every toss-up and/or getting slight upsets in Dem. leaning states.  Where as the Dem. candidate only has to win the states they're suppose to win plus one or maybe two battleground states.

Pretty much.  The states that both Gore and Kerry won are still pretty solid for the Democrats, with maybe 1 or 2 shifting to battleground states.

New Mexico has now moved to solid Democrat.  Nevada is really there as well. 

If you throw in Virginia and Colorado, which are trending fast, it starts to become almost impossible for the GOP to win without some upsets.

Nevada is not Soild D. I don't why you D's think that.  Colorado is not trending fast it has been erratic in its PVI shifts through the last 3-4 decades if you really look at it. VA is a big worry I agree with you there on the R side. NOVA is left of center poltically and the R;s have lost contact with the political center nationally.

[hopper]

New Mexico has now moved to solid Democrat.  Nevada is really there as well. 

Nevada is not Soild D. I don't why you D's think that. 

Hispanics, really, I suppose.  Demographic change.  Also lots of Blacks and Asians there.  The chance of a Republican victory there gets less and less with each election cycle - by 2016 it is fairly remote.

I heard Romney got like 48% of the Asian Vote in 2012 in NV so that's not a impossible demographic for the R's there. Hispanics yes that's a problem. Blacks always vote D by huge margins so nothing new there.

[hopper]

Nevada Exit Polls

White (64%) = 56% Romney, 43% Obama
Hispanic (19%) = 71% Obama, 24% Romney
Black (9%) = 92% Obama, 6% Romney
Asian (5%) = 50% Obama, 47% Romney

Wow, that Asian vote is radically out of whack compared to the national number of 73 to 26 in favor of Obama.   Perhaps a mix of a very unusual mix of Asian ethnicities in NV and the inaccuracy of exit polls.

No actually the Romney Campaign put emphasis on the Asian Vote in NV(for some reason.) I heard this from a Republican Strategist on a C-Span Panel. The Asian Vote is partly why Dean Heller is still a US Senator that and the Independent Vote in NV.