NJ Elections : Poll - Dems have edge going into election --- More on Elections

[Conan]

http://www.politicsnj.com/eagleton-poll-coming-tomorrow-13179

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http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/24/nyregion/24jersey.html?ref=nyregion
"South Jersey Democrats Poised to Shake Things Up "

[Conan]

I am betting that Van Drew, Whelan, and Karcher will win. I have doubts of Bodine. Baroni will win in what ought to be a landslide.

I think Dems will increase in Senate for sure and that they will probably either break even or add to the assembly.

[Conan]

I'm very hesitant to share news from the subscription-only Politifax, but the stuff in here is already floating around New Jersey's political circles, so...

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And, what else is going on?

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And one more.

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There's a lot more good stuff in there............but if you want to know what, fork over some cash and subscribe.

This is what sucks about not being home in NJ! I don't get to read the very over charged Politifax!

Well, I guess the reason why Nick has to overcharge is because bastards like me spread around the news for free.  Seriously though, if you've got a job in the political field, its well worth its price.

I think I've read everything politifax said on PNJ except about Beck being up by 3. I don't buy that. She's a terrible campaigner.

[Conan]

I think I've read everything politifax said on PNJ except about Beck being up by 3. I don't buy that. She's a terrible campaigner.

It is clearly a Republican leaning district on most levels.  Further, Beck has a very strong base in Red Bank, a town Democrats could have otherwise hoped to win with landslide levels in.  For someone who won so convincingly over a pair of incumbents in 2005, you simply can NOT write her off as a terrible campaigner.

Because terrible campaigners don't win races like that after being outspent by infinity-to-one.

That has nothing to do with her campaign. She really isnt that great of a politician or campaigner. If she does win, she will win because we have a legislature that does for the most part deserve to be kicked out.

If the voters of New Jersey are stupid enough to increase the Democratic legislative majority, they will pay a very serious price; both monetary and in their quality of life.

New Jersey had a decade of all-Republican government and is only mid-way through a comparable amount of time with the Democrats. Property taxes went up under both administrations, and I defy anyone to explain how a Republican Trenton is going to improve quality of life in New Jersey, which seems driven by traffic, high housing costs, and continued development in a state that is already the most densely populated in the country. They can't, because these problems don't have easy solutions.

Perhaps in another few years Republicans can count on a "throw the bums out" election that gives them a chance to feed at the trough without resolving any of these problems and piling up more debt than usual because of tax cuts without any changes in spending, but in the Bush era, New Jersey seems comfortable with the Democratic bums.

Trust me, New Jersey is not "comfortable with the Democratic bums."  New Jersey is very unhappy with its government (look at the numbers).  Problem for Republicans is that New Jersey is even less comfortable with Republicans.  (Fortunately for Republicans this cycle, all the battlegrounds are on GOP turf.)

Personally, I'd just like to see enough New Jersey Republicans in either house to put at least some kind of check on an all-Democratic government.  The State Senate is the logical place, where the GOP would have a say on judges and contracts.

The only thing I worry about is that Republicans and Democrats might actually work together as a team, and instead of 22 Senators working as a team to pass sweetheart contracts, we'd have 40 Senators working as a team.

I think you have to live in NJ to say "trust me" about anything that has to do with us. You don't live here anymore. I can't say how Arkansans or Floridians feel about there politicians based on polls. Polling for NJ, in my opinion, has been hard to do for poll firms, anyway.

Also, the republicans and dems in Trenton, are a team. There is minimal difference between them for the most part. It all goes back to where they get there support and money.

[Conan]

I think I've read everything politifax said on PNJ except about Beck being up by 3. I don't buy that. She's a terrible campaigner.

It is clearly a Republican leaning district on most levels.  Further, Beck has a very strong base in Red Bank, a town Democrats could have otherwise hoped to win with landslide levels in.  For someone who won so convincingly over a pair of incumbents in 2005, you simply can NOT write her off as a terrible campaigner.

Because terrible campaigners don't win races like that after being outspent by infinity-to-one.

That has nothing to do with her campaign. She really isnt that great of a politician or campaigner. If she does win, she will win because we have a legislature that does for the most part deserve to be kicked out.

It's funny you're deriding Beck as a poor campaigner, since the universal complaint about Ellen Karcher is what a piss poor campaign she's been waging!  PoliticsNJ has moved the race out of the toss-up category and into the "leans Republican" category.

She won because of ethics in 2003, and may wind up losing, in part, because she wasn't as squeaky clean as voters thought she'd be.  The Asbury Park Press elected her, and four years later, it's working to throw her out.

Ellen Karcher's campaign has nothing to do with the quality of Beck's. I never said Karcher was running a good, bad, or bland campaign. We all know how she first won the seat, too. It was a great coup.  If Beck wins, it's because of a piss-poor campaign by Karcher in an already GOP district in what should have been an anti-Dem mood statewide.

[Conan]

We all know how she first won the seat, too.

Really?  I thought your contention was that only people still living in New Jersey knew anything.

False. That's a historical fact; it's over and done with. I was referring to the current political mood which one can't get by a poll, which isn't publicly released either, while living hundreds of miles away.

[Conan]

I think I've read everything politifax said on PNJ except about Beck being up by 3. I don't buy that. She's a terrible campaigner.

It is clearly a Republican leaning district on most levels.  Further, Beck has a very strong base in Red Bank, a town Democrats could have otherwise hoped to win with landslide levels in.  For someone who won so convincingly over a pair of incumbents in 2005, you simply can NOT write her off as a terrible campaigner.

Because terrible campaigners don't win races like that after being outspent by infinity-to-one.

That has nothing to do with her campaign. She really isnt that great of a politician or campaigner. If she does win, she will win because we have a legislature that does for the most part deserve to be kicked out.

It's funny you're deriding Beck as a poor campaigner, since the universal complaint about Ellen Karcher is what a piss poor campaign she's been waging!  PoliticsNJ has moved the race out of the toss-up category and into the "leans Republican" category.

She won because of ethics in 2003, and may wind up losing, in part, because she wasn't as squeaky clean as voters thought she'd be.  The Asbury Park Press elected her, and four years later, it's working to throw her out.

Ellen Karcher's campaign has nothing to do with the quality of Beck's. I never said Karcher was running a good, bad, or bland campaign. We all know how she first won the seat, too. It was a great coup.  If Beck wins, it's because of a piss-poor campaign by Karcher in an already GOP district in what should have been an anti-Dem mood statewide.

I'm somewhat curious: What about Jen Beck's campaign seems to strike you as "poor"?

What makes you say Beck's conducting a good campaign? You seem to think that because Karcher's is bad, that must make Beck's good. All Beck does is complain about Karcher and her money and how she will be smeared. She's a whiner.

[Conan]

I think I've read everything politifax said on PNJ except about Beck being up by 3. I don't buy that. She's a terrible campaigner.

It is clearly a Republican leaning district on most levels.  Further, Beck has a very strong base in Red Bank, a town Democrats could have otherwise hoped to win with landslide levels in.  For someone who won so convincingly over a pair of incumbents in 2005, you simply can NOT write her off as a terrible campaigner.

Because terrible campaigners don't win races like that after being outspent by infinity-to-one.

That has nothing to do with her campaign. She really isnt that great of a politician or campaigner. If she does win, she will win because we have a legislature that does for the most part deserve to be kicked out.

It's funny you're deriding Beck as a poor campaigner, since the universal complaint about Ellen Karcher is what a piss poor campaign she's been waging!  PoliticsNJ has moved the race out of the toss-up category and into the "leans Republican" category.

She won because of ethics in 2003, and may wind up losing, in part, because she wasn't as squeaky clean as voters thought she'd be.  The Asbury Park Press elected her, and four years later, it's working to throw her out.

Ellen Karcher's campaign has nothing to do with the quality of Beck's. I never said Karcher was running a good, bad, or bland campaign. We all know how she first won the seat, too. It was a great coup.  If Beck wins, it's because of a piss-poor campaign by Karcher in an already GOP district in what should have been an anti-Dem mood statewide.

I'm somewhat curious: What about Jen Beck's campaign seems to strike you as "poor"?

What makes you say Beck's conducting a good campaign? You seem to think that because Karcher's is bad, that must make Beck's good. All Beck does is complain about Karcher and her money and how she will be smeared. She's a whiner.

Well, part of running a good campaign is capitalizing on your opponent's mistakes.  Beck is clearly getting mileage out of Karcher's "farm" deduction and oversight in reporting her Christmas tree income.  It may be small potatoes, but any potatoes are big potatoes when you consider the entire 2003 campaign was waged solely on the issue of ethics.

Polling on both sides show that Karcher's numbers took a marked hit after Beck launched the attack.  It's moved the race out of the toss-up category, and made Karcher an underdog.  Not a sign of a weak campaign, especially considering Beck's very limited media budget.

I also need to hand it to Beck for taking a page from the Baroni book and actually waging a real, significant door-to-door campaign.  Beck has reportedly knocked on 10k doors district-wide thus far.

It's also a very Republican district, and I think bringing up the specter of Camden County Democrats is something that will resonate among the swing voters who went for Bennett in 2001, for Karcher in 2003, and for Beck in 2005.  Karcher needs to argue that she's an independent voice for Monmouth County.  Beck needs to show that she's ultimately beholden to the party bosses.  (I've seen other GOP campaigns pull some very stunning upsets by playing the Norcross card—Rau-Hatton's big '06 win immediately comes to mind.)

I guess you view that all as "whining."  Still, the most logical way for a challenger to defeat an incumbent is to point out the incumbent's shortcomings.  Beck's doing that with very little money, and honestly, running one of the best campaigns in the state right now.

False. That's a historical fact; it's over and done with. I was referring to the current political mood which one can't get by a poll, which isn't publicly released either, while living hundreds of miles away.

It's true, all I have to go on is a deep, inside knowledge of the political machinations of the Garden State, lots of insider reports, and an extensive rolodex of contacts on both sides of the aisle from my days as a reporter.  I know nothing compared to someone who physically lives in New Jersey. 

You have a feel of it, just that it's not as good as someone who is physically here.

Also, lest I forget—the Beck campaign was able to arrange a last-minute campaign stop by Rudy Giuliani.  That's a huge "get," especially for a State Senate challenger.

Yea, Giuliani has been campaigning a lot here. I think he visited Whelans district and Asselta. Anyway, I don't think the dems are going to just roll over here. I would expect some big guns to visit, possibly Clinton.

[Conan]

Some campaign spending numbers for targeted districts in New Jersey.  Keep in mind that Senate and Assembly candidates oft have combined accounts, so the totals here are district-wide (one Senate seat, two Assembly seats).

http://www.politicsnj.com/money-race-13479

Most eye-opening number:

DISTRICT 12
All Democrats
Received: 4.270 million
Spent: 4.046 million
On hand: 223,589.40

All Republicans
Received: 658,695.10
Spent: 563,245.30
On hand: 107,055.20

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District 1
 
All Democrats

Received to date: $2.376 million
Spent: $2,338 million
On hand: $37,694

All Republicans

Received: $940,128
Spent: $705,529.66
On hand: $201,354.91


District 2

All Democrats

Received: $2.192 million
Spent: $2,061 million
On hand: $131,102.74

All Republicans

Received: $905,390.35
Spent: $574,971.30
On hand: $297,020.40


District 8
 
All Democrats

Received: $1.387 million
Spent: $1,360 million
On hand: $26,711.97

All Republicans

Received: $659,185.30
Spent: $404,586.56
On hand: 254,598.74

District 11

All Democrats

Received: 267,349.48
Spent: 210,957.85
On hand: 34,621.28

All Republicans

Received: 523,304.41
Spent: 340,885.90
Oh hand: 182,418.51


District 12
 
All Democrats

Received: 4.270 million
Spent: 4.046 million
On hand: 223,589.40

All Republicans

Received: 658,695.10
Spent: 563,245.30
On hand: 107,055.20

District 14*
 
All Democrats

Received:  $1.723 million
Spent: $1.453 million
On hand: $269,497.32

All Republicans

Received: $1.626 million
Spent: $961,853.59
On hand:  $664,716.41

Libertarian

Received: $33,224
Spent: $31,091.35
On hand: $2,132.65

*Clean Elections district.  Democratic Assemblywoman Linda Greenstein received $100,000 this filing period in rescue funds.   

 
District 39

All Democrats

Received: 761,115.10
Spent: 634,932.82
On hand: 126,182.28

All Republicans

Received: 784,692.82
Spent: 507,036.29
On hand: 277,656.53

[Conan]

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http://www.politicsnj.com/poll-whelan-leads-mccullough-asselta-race-dead-heat-13701

[Conan]

http://www.politicsnj.com/files/Prall110407.pdf
Sen:

Leans Rep
Beck
Cardinale
Open 8 (Bodine)

Toss up
none

Leans Dem
VanDrew
Whelan

Assembly

Leans Rep
2 Rep Open
8 Rep Open
11 Rep Open
11 Rep Open
12 Rep Open
39 Rooney (R)

Toss Up
1 Dem Open
2 Dem Open
8 Dem  Open
12 Panter (D)
14 Open (R)

Leans Dem
1 Albano (D)
14 Greenstein (D)

I am in denial over Karcher's seat. She's a good legislator who's being brought down by her own party's leadership with their half assed ethics reform.
I am going to say dems net -1 to -3 in the Assembly and net 2 still in the senate. I am going to go against the odds and say Karcher will win even though I am in some state of denial over it.

[Conan]

I am in denial over Karcher's seat. She's a good legislator who's being brought down by her own party's leadership with their half assed ethics reform.
I am going to say dems net -1 to -3 in the Assembly and net 2 still in the senate. I am going to go against the odds and say Karcher will win even though I am in some state of denial over it.

I'd be more upset to see Panter lose than to see Karcher lose.  Karcher brought her loss upon herself by not living up to her own ethical standards, and I think Jen Beck will be a strong replacement.

I don't like the fact that the next State Legislative session will be without either Asselta or Van Drew—both are terrific legislators.  Greenstein is an inherently weak legislator, and I think the Democratic party (and the district) would honestly be better off if she lost out to her running mate this Tuesday.

I'd have to agree with everything you said but I don't think Beck will be any good.

[Conan]

I am in denial over Karcher's seat. She's a good legislator who's being brought down by her own party's leadership with their half assed ethics reform.
I am going to say dems net -1 to -3 in the Assembly and net 2 still in the senate. I am going to go against the odds and say Karcher will win even though I am in some state of denial over it.

I'd be more upset to see Panter lose than to see Karcher lose.  Karcher brought her loss upon herself by not living up to her own ethical standards, and I think Jen Beck will be a strong replacement.

I don't like the fact that the next State Legislative session will be without either Asselta or Van Drew—both are terrific legislators.  Greenstein is an inherently weak legislator, and I think the Democratic party (and the district) would honestly be better off if she lost out to her running mate this Tuesday.

I'd have to agree with everything you said but I don't think Beck will be any good.

Let me add this too: Republican Phil Haines makes a better Democrat than Democrat Fran Bodine does in District 8.  I can't think of a reason why any Democrat in the world should want to vote for the more conservative (and not-so-squeaky-clean) Bodine in that race—he's literally a DINO.

I can just say that I know nothing of his positions on the issues.  But yea, Bodine is a DINO who only switched because he didn't get his way. Although Greentsein is weak, I remembered she's running with Wayne DeAngelo. He's a union figure and I believe I read he's socially conservative (which probably means moderate). If Baroni was running for assembly, I'd vote for him over DeAngelo.

[Conan]

State Senate - District 1 - General

County Precincts
Total 109/204

Van Drew
13,486
56%

Asselta
10,654
44%
 

Newer
128/204
15,878
56%
12,263
44%

[Conan]

State Senate - District 1 - General

County Precincts
Total 109/204

Van Drew
13,486
56%

Asselta
10,654
44%
 

Link please...

http://elections.nj.com/dynamic/files/elections/2007/by_county/NJ_State_Senate_1106.html?SITE=NJNEWELN&SECTION=POLITICS

[Conan]

Both Milam and Albano are leading with Van Drew in the 1st.

[Conan]

Sonny McCullough is conceding to George Norcross very graciously.

[Conan]

Sonny McCullough is conceding to George Norcross very graciously.

Senator Jim Whelan, sounds nice.

I'd prefer Congressman.

Sonny McCullough is conceding to George Norcross very graciously.

And it sounds like the GOP picked up Whelan's Assembly seat.

That's what I overheard at his concession but I think that was just "We're gonna win" stuff so far.

[Conan]

I just heard that Ariyan is leading?

[Conan]

Asselta conceding ungraciously and very bitter....and no Sen, you wont be back.

[Conan]

Ellen Karcher conceding.

[Conan]

Actually, a pretty decent night for Republicans down ballot.

They lost Marlboro (no surprise there: ethics, ethics, ethics), but picked up Brick, Hamilton Township, Rutherford (incumbent Bernadette McPherson lost by 70–30), and Toms River.

Democrats did great in Somerset (picked up a freeholder seat for the first time since 1973) and nearly won the Sheriff seat in Hunterdon (when a Republican wins by only 8% or so in Hunterdon, that's a HUGE win for the Democrat).

This backs up Stender's strength in Hunterdon back in 2006.  I think my old home county may be trending Democratic, and quick.

Yea there wasnt much compaigning for that stem cell measure. It was taken for granted. And whats with the results for not letting the .5% go to tax relief? Très bizarre election.

[Conan]

Actually, a pretty decent night for Republicans down ballot.

They lost Marlboro (no surprise there: ethics, ethics, ethics), but picked up Brick, Hamilton Township, Rutherford (incumbent Bernadette McPherson lost by 70–30), and Toms River.

Democrats did great in Somerset (picked up a freeholder seat for the first time since 1973) and nearly won the Sheriff seat in Hunterdon (when a Republican wins by only 8% or so in Hunterdon, that's a HUGE win for the Democrat).

This backs up Stender's strength in Hunterdon back in 2006.  I think my old home county may be trending Democratic, and quick.

Yea there wasnt much compaigning for that stem cell measure. It was taken for granted. And whats with the results for not letting the .5% go to tax relief? Très bizarre election.

I do agree that the Stem Cell issue was taken for granted. I did not expect this to fail at all. I don't believe this failing means people don't want stem cell research, I just think they don't want to spend the money.

Not to mention about 5 dem districts were unopposed....turnout probably in mid to upper 30s. This is a real blow to NJ becoming a stem cell research center though. I think it will be back on the ballot next year maybe.

[Conan]

PoliticsNJ:

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There was also very low turnout in Stender's district, so the margins are really insignificant.

[Conan]

Results:
Lost Bodine's Seat: Not really a loss, he was a republican vote.
Lost Whelan's Seat: -1
Lost Panter's Seat: -1
Gained Baroni's Seat: +1

Net real change for dems: -1
Quite well seeing how this came close to being the only time since the 1950s where the governors party didn't lose seats.

Senate:
Gained McCollough's Seat: +1
Gained Asselta's Seat: +1
Lost Karcher's Seat: -1

Net Gain of +1

New Senate margin: 23D-17R.
New Assembly margin: 48D-32R.

Ballot Questions:
Stem Cell Funding - Rejected
"Idiot or Insane Persons" (Voting Rights) - Passed
Green Acres - Passed
1% tax relief from Sales tax - rejected

Stem Cells - low voter turnout (thought to be in 30s) and general anti-debt and tax mood (which is rightfully so) defeated this...had Governor support

Green Acres - don't know why this passed but it's less than half of the cost of the stem cells. Also, Torricelli gave a nice explanation on politicsnj....."land costs less now that market is bad"

1/2 of 1% Tax relief jargon - don't know why this didnt pass. Most people probably thought it was a tax hike. The Governor was opposed to this.