Battleground Final 50-48 Obama

[Franzl]

Wow, they were unbelievably accurate. I'll stress the unbelievably. Within a 10th on both Bush and Kerry's figures? exact on all 3 of Bush, Perot and Clinton, and again on Clinton, Dole and Perot? Why haven't we all been bowing down to them all year.

and glad to see that we win

Are those numbers for real?

[Franzl]

  This is not Battleground's final poll results.  The final results were 49%-44% in favor of Obama.

  This is the Tarrance Group (GOP) portion of Battleground's final projection of the results.  Obama 50.2%, McCain 48.3%, other 1.5%

  For what it is worth, the other half of Battleground, Lake (Dem) is projecting the results as Obama 51.5%, McCain 46.5%, and other 2%.

  We will soon see who is closer.
 
 I have to laugh since Battleground is claiming that they were most accurate in 2004 when all along I thought IBD/TIPP was making that claim.  Guess it all depends on what a person's definition of 'most accurate' is.  LOL

Ill-Ind

IBD/TIPP was the most accurate in 2004, not Battleground, mainly because the final margin was Bush 50.7, Kerry 48.3.  Still, Battleground was quite good in that election, just not as good.  And in truth, that was Ed Goaes's prediction, not Celinda Lake's, who predicted a Kerry victory.

The difference between Ed's numbers and Celinda's numbers in this election have to do with allocation of undecideds.  Celinda thinks they will break evenly, Ed thinks they'll break 4-1 McCain.  We'll see.

are the other numbers really true, how accurate their projections were in 1996 and 1992?

[Franzl]

Well...one question then (especially to Sam)

Considering how accurate this poll has been in the past...why the heck have we been paying attention to Rasmussen and Gallup the entire election cycle?

I mean...a win's a win, I guess....so I'm not too worried about that.....but I'm just wondering if you have reason to expect a higher margin than Battleground suggests?