PA-NYT/Siena: Biden +9

[Holmes]

I’m interested in seeing more about the 11% Other when the crosstabs drop.

[Holmes]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/28/us/politics/supreme-court-pennsylvania-poll.html

Siena College/NYT Upshot
September 25-27
711 likely voters
MoE: 4.3%
Changes with October 16-25, 2019 poll (their last Likely Voters poll)

Biden 49% (+3)
Trump 40% (-5)
Other 10%

I wonder who was included in their LV model a whole year out.

[Holmes]

Crosstabs:

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/pa-0920-crosstabs/0d7e4a610ceeb14b/full.pdf

Of that "10% other":

Jorgensen 2%
Someone else 0%
Not voting for president 0%
Don't know/refused 8%

Undecided vote is more older, non-white and especially independent.

[Holmes]

I don’t know exactly how the NYT defines each region but Biden is killing it in Philly and the burbs and Allegheny county, Trump killing it in central PA and doing well in the west with small a Trump leads in the east and northeast.