As a part time native, I can say Poliquin in 16 is going to be based on how he actually does and not party. If Collins and Snowe can be continuously re elected, even in Dem wave years, just by doing a respectable job by the whole state, then Poliquin can definitely win in just the more conservative district.
Yeah, seeing whether new, clearly-competent incumbents in unfavorable districts will be able to establish themselves will be very interesting -- people like Dold, Graham, and Poliquin. It's definitely doable -- Kirkpatrick and Peterson and Valadao prove it -- but that does not necessarily mean it will be done.
I don't think Valadao's proven anything, tbh.
Valadao's CADems top target in 2016 (not like they really have anyone else to target lol).
I'd say it's a coin flip whether he wins reelection in 2016. The district has a massive Hispanic population, but Valadao is the Republicans' number one proponent of immigration reform. For Dems, it'll be tying Valadao to the radicals in his party.
