German Elections & Politics

[iratemoderate]

And she's done such a fantastic job of handling these crises.

Well, she actually did.

Angela Merkel gets a lot of heat from both the far-right and the far-left for her crisis management, but considering the circumstances I can't honestly see how anyone could have done it any better.

And I say that as someone who doesn't prefer his party to enter a coalition with the CDU in 2017 (mainly because I don't see a lot of compatibility with the CDU regarding social and fiscal policies).

The eurozone crisis is still festering below the surface. Her handling of these crises has likely contributed to Britain's decision to leave the EU and a general spike in euroscepticism across the continent. Her decision to open the borders in late August of 2015 had disastrous consequences, both for Germany, the wider EU as well as many migrants who were duped into believing Germany had something to offer them (I know we'll disagree on that one). Thanks to Merkel we're now dependent on the whims of a semi-dictatorial regime in Turkey. Others will want to get the same deals. Even the CDU is now slowly but surely embracing policies that others called for a year ago (doing more to dissuade people from migrating to Europe, e.g. returning migrants to African shores) which indicates just how misguided her policies have been.

Glad someone gets it! Spot-on on every point.

[iratemoderate]

CDU and CSU need to split... then the CSU can merge with the AfD and the CDU can merge with the SPD, and the Left can become the new major left-wing party.

Die Linke should adopt East German-style policies toward immigration in order to compete better. It would certainty throw a wrench into the traditional left-right divide and help the party consolidate more support in its eastern heartland. Attack Merkel from her left and her right, in other words.

[iratemoderate]

CDU and CSU need to split... then the CSU can merge with the AfD and the CDU can merge with the SPD, and the Left can become the new major left-wing party.

Die Linke should adopt East German-style policies toward immigration in order to compete better. It would certainty throw a wrench into the traditional left-right divide and help the party consolidate more support in its eastern heartland. Attack Merkel from her left and her right, in other words.

This would most likely cause the Left Party to split into two parties.

Perhaps, but I think that it could be a winning strategy. Eastern Germans, polls show, have little patience for mass immigration and are very hostile to Islam. Considering how important sex equality is in the east, and how irreligious it is, this should not be much surprise. Unlike so many naive idealists these days, eastern Germans seem to think with their brains. Their Wessi counterparts would do well to follow their example.

I still think that the SPD should run Thilo Sarrazin!

[iratemoderate]

   Iratemoderate, this is one of my political dreams/fantasies , of left of center parties embracing a low immigration policy, like Robert Fico in Slovakia. It would be fascinating to see how this would work out in reality in Germany.  Would there be enough of an electorate to back such a party in significant numbers?
  That's why I'd like to see a FPO-SPO coalition in Austria, to keep the FPO from going too far in a neo-liberal direction, and bring the SPO back to representing a pro Austrian working class attitude by going for immigration restriction.  One can dream this at any rate.

It cannot happen soon enough. For the record, Fico is a pretty poor social democrat, but I am all for these types of politicians pursuing a saner immigration policy.

Whether fiscally or socially, it makes no sense for leftists to embrace mass immigration. The reasons are, of course, dogged adherence to idealism and electoral considerations.

[iratemoderate]

CDU and CSU need to split... then the CSU can merge with the AfD and the CDU can merge with the SPD, and the Left can become the new major left-wing party.

CDU and CSU should split, yes. CSU leader Seehofer now stated that he won't go into another coalition without an upper limit for refugees (200,000 per year). Merkel will never agree on that. But if she wants to form a government with the Greens (and likely the FDP if that isn't enough for a majority), she badly needs the CSU. That actually means, we may end up with a CDU/SPD coalition afterwards. After these four years, both parties would be dead.

The Left should also split. The eastern moderate wing should be integrated in the SPD and the others form a communist party.

I cannot stand either party, but at least the CSU is right on immigration.

The SPD should never have debased itself by forming a coalition with Merkel. I am all for pragmatism, but Germany takes realpolitik too far sometimes.

[iratemoderate]

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Assuming that you're being dismissive of my claims out of ignorance, it has been consistently documented in the literature and in regular polling that eastern Germans are significantly cooler to immigration and Islam than their western counterparts and other western Europeans.

Here are some polls just from Google. You can find social science literature on the phenomenon elsewhere.

http://www.thelocal.de/20140807/islam-does-not-belong-in-germany-poll

http://www.dw.com/en/alarmed-but-willing-to-help-how-germans-feel-about-the-surge-of-refugees/a-18693591

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/religion/2010-12-03-muslimgerman03_ST_N.htm

Support for Afd and the NPD is also strongest in the east. Obviously, these groups attract support from the extreme right, but from my conservations with eastern Germans and an examination of the literature, it becomes clear that there is an undercurrent of anxiety toward both Islam and immigration in society except among young idealists.

[iratemoderate]

Die Linke is a complex political subject that can't just be shifted around through the political issues.

There are deep cleavages between ex-PDS and ex-WASG, east and west, pragmatists and hardliners (with a strong correlation between these).

On the immigration issue on the other hand, the permissive stance is absolutely majoritarian. The only outspoken critic is Sahra Wagenknecht (ex-PDS ultra-hardliner). The rest of the party is mostly quite idealistic about this issue and couldn't easily digest a change of direction.

Finally the party's voter demographics are changing. Die Linke is growing among younger, urban alternative demographics. Changing its stance on immigration might hurt the party's chances with these new voters and the risk is that long-time eastern voters might not necessarily come back.

A party left of center that is more restrictive on immigration would be interesting in the sense that it would be entertaining to watch how things turn out. But it's unlikely to happen. And if it happens, Sarrazin would certainly not be a credibly left-wing figure to play a role in it. And Wagenknecht and Palmer will stay with the Left and the Greens respectively.

Fascinating information! Thanks for the analysis. I am going to look into some of the people you mentioned.