I'd still bet on Collins, especially if the Democratic nominee is under 50% in Maine (like in 2016).
Also, her approvals are
only +23 with Republicans because a large chunk of the Republican base still sees her as too moderate (further evidence of this is that
Morning Consult has Trump's approval in ME at -6, while its -10 for Collins). These conservatives will come home to her once the only other choice on the ballot is Gideon. This dynamic is also why McConnell is perpetually unpopular in KY, but has managed to win his past few reelection contests quite easily.
