ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet

[Epaminondas]

Will the 2020 Senate election be carried out with Ranked Choice?

[brucejoel99]

Will the 2020 Senate election be carried out with Ranked Choice?

Yes.

[Oryxslayer]

Collins is officially one of the most unpopular senators in the country according to morning consult's quarterly tracker. McConnell still has a wider net unpopularity, but Collins has the highest number of dissaprovers. It appears impeachment is doing her no favors.

https://morningconsult.com/2020/01/16/impeachment-trial-set-to-put-vulnerable-senate-republicans-in-a-familiar-bind/

[Calthrina950]

Collins is officially one of the most unpopular senators in the country according to morning consult's quarterly tracker. McConnell still has a wider net unpopularity, but Collins has the highest number of dissaprovers. It appears impeachment is doing her no favors.

https://morningconsult.com/2020/01/16/impeachment-trial-set-to-put-vulnerable-senate-republicans-in-a-familiar-bind/

Collins could very well meet the fate of Margaret Chase-Smith. Chase-Smith was a longtime, once-popular Republican Senator who was defeated for reelection at the end of her political career. But I still think she is more likely to narrowly hold on like Joe Manchin did. She's in for the fight of her life this year.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Collins is officially one of the most unpopular senators in the country according to morning consult's quarterly tracker. McConnell still has a wider net unpopularity, but Collins has the highest number of dissaprovers. It appears impeachment is doing her no favors.

https://morningconsult.com/2020/01/16/impeachment-trial-set-to-put-vulnerable-senate-republicans-in-a-familiar-bind/

Collins could very well meet the fate of Margaret Chase-Smith. Chase-Smith was a longtime, once-popular Republican Senator who was defeated for reelection at the end of her political career. But I still think she is more likely to narrowly hold on like Joe Manchin did. She's in for the fight of her life this year.

I think people keep overestimating her chances. Her approval is now in-line with Trump’s in the state.

She’s -10 with indys, -48 with Democrats, and only +23 with republicans. Her winning coalition is vanishing.

[Calthrina950]

Collins is officially one of the most unpopular senators in the country according to morning consult's quarterly tracker. McConnell still has a wider net unpopularity, but Collins has the highest number of dissaprovers. It appears impeachment is doing her no favors.

https://morningconsult.com/2020/01/16/impeachment-trial-set-to-put-vulnerable-senate-republicans-in-a-familiar-bind/

Collins could very well meet the fate of Margaret Chase-Smith. Chase-Smith was a longtime, once-popular Republican Senator who was defeated for reelection at the end of her political career. But I still think she is more likely to narrowly hold on like Joe Manchin did. She's in for the fight of her life this year.

I think people keep overestimating her chances. Her approval is now in-line with Trump’s in the state.

She’s -10 with indys, -48 with Democrats, and only +23 with republicans. Her winning coalition is vanishing.

I can understand the logic behind this. Polarization, as we saw in the 2018 midterms, has only grown more intense, and Collins is now viewed as no different from the national Republican Party, due to her support for first the tax cuts, then Kavanaugh, and currently, her response to impeachment. How she conducts herself during this trial could very well have implications for her electoral prospects. But Collins does have that history of electoral overperformance, and she is a known quantity in the state, so Democrats can't take this race for granted. They must be willing to allocate the resources necessary here to defeat her.

[OneJ]

Regardless, Collins' luck is seemingly running out. Her decision on whether or not to acquit Trump will definitely hurt her in different ways, so that plus her already collapsing approval numbers makes it increasingly difficult for me to see how she survives this.

[Kung Fu Kenny]

Regardless, Collins' luck is seemingly running out. Her decision on whether or not to acquit Trump will definitely hurt her in different ways, so that plus her already collapsing approval numbers makes it increasingly difficult for me to see how she survives this.

I think she's toast. Tilt R for now, but Gideon seems to be running a fairly good campaign.

[libertpaulian]

If Dems end up winning in Maine, then it's likely they've won the Senate, or at least made it 50-50.

[Boobs]

Susie Q’s on a similar trajectory to Air Claire and Hollywood Heidi and that irrelevant guy from Indiana.

[Sir Mohamed]

Regardless, Collins' luck is seemingly running out. Her decision on whether or not to acquit Trump will definitely hurt her in different ways, so that plus her already collapsing approval numbers makes it increasingly difficult for me to see how she survives this.

Yup, though I still think this race is Lean R. But incredible when you think she was elected with 68% last time.

[Del Tachi]

I'd still bet on Collins, especially if the Democratic nominee is under 50% in Maine (like  in 2016).

Also, her approvals are only +23 with Republicans because a large chunk of the Republican base still sees her as too moderate (further evidence of this is that Morning Consult has Trump's approval in ME at -6, while its -10 for Collins).  These conservatives will come home to her once the only other choice on the ballot is Gideon.  This dynamic is also why McConnell is perpetually unpopular in KY, but has managed to win his past few reelection contests quite easily.

[BP🌹]

It's so frustrating hearing people compare Maine to North Dakota/Indiana/Missouri and thinking this will be a cakewalk. It's not the same at all. Indiana and Missouri were 6x as Republican as Maine in 2016, and North Dakota 12x as Republican. Collins may have lost a lot of crossover appeal, but she also doesn't need crossover appeal anymore.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

ME, CO, AZ and KS are likely pickups so the Senate is a foregone conclusion and Ernst is following in the footsteps of Collins

[wbrocks67]

Dems have like a 17% registration advantage in Maine though. If most of the Dems give up on her, then that's it for her.

[voice_of_resistance]

yeah its kind of the reverse of AL. If the crossover vote vanishes, there are simply more Democrats than Republicans in Maine, and that dooms Collins. It's the same thing with Jones, the math isn't there, and Jones is nowhere near conservative enough to win over enough Trump voters to win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In a wave Jones will win, though, but it's unlikely, since minimum wage is making it's way thru NH, that Collins, Scott or Sununu can survive, 3 moderates

[pppolitics]

Collins is officially one of the most unpopular senators in the country according to morning consult's quarterly tracker. McConnell still has a wider net unpopularity, but Collins has the highest number of dissaprovers. It appears impeachment is doing her no favors.

https://morningconsult.com/2020/01/16/impeachment-trial-set-to-put-vulnerable-senate-republicans-in-a-familiar-bind/

Collins could very well meet the fate of Margaret Chase-Smith. Chase-Smith was a longtime, once-popular Republican Senator who was defeated for reelection at the end of her political career. But I still think she is more likely to narrowly hold on like Joe Manchin did. She's in for the fight of her life this year.

I think people keep overestimating her chances. Her approval is now in-line with Trump’s in the state.

She’s -10 with indys, -48 with Democrats, and only +23 with republicans. Her winning coalition is vanishing.

I can understand the logic behind this. Polarization, as we saw in the 2018 midterms, has only grown more intense, and Collins is now viewed as no different from the national Republican Party, due to her support for first the tax cuts, then Kavanaugh, and currently, her response to impeachment. How she conducts herself during this trial could very well have implications for her electoral prospects. But Collins does have that history of electoral overperformance, and she is a known quantity in the state, so Democrats can't take this race for granted. They must be willing to allocate the resources necessary here to defeat her.

She should have voted against Kavanaugh, then when someone else comes along with literally the same ideology, she can vote for him/her and say "see! I am a moderate!"

[Calthrina950]

Collins is officially one of the most unpopular senators in the country according to morning consult's quarterly tracker. McConnell still has a wider net unpopularity, but Collins has the highest number of dissaprovers. It appears impeachment is doing her no favors.

https://morningconsult.com/2020/01/16/impeachment-trial-set-to-put-vulnerable-senate-republicans-in-a-familiar-bind/

Collins could very well meet the fate of Margaret Chase-Smith. Chase-Smith was a longtime, once-popular Republican Senator who was defeated for reelection at the end of her political career. But I still think she is more likely to narrowly hold on like Joe Manchin did. She's in for the fight of her life this year.

I think people keep overestimating her chances. Her approval is now in-line with Trump’s in the state.

She’s -10 with indys, -48 with Democrats, and only +23 with republicans. Her winning coalition is vanishing.

I can understand the logic behind this. Polarization, as we saw in the 2018 midterms, has only grown more intense, and Collins is now viewed as no different from the national Republican Party, due to her support for first the tax cuts, then Kavanaugh, and currently, her response to impeachment. How she conducts herself during this trial could very well have implications for her electoral prospects. But Collins does have that history of electoral overperformance, and she is a known quantity in the state, so Democrats can't take this race for granted. They must be willing to allocate the resources necessary here to defeat her.

She should have voted against Kavanaugh, then when someone else comes along with literally the same ideology, she can vote for him/her and say "see! I am a moderate!"

The Kavanaugh vote was truly a devil's dilemma for Collins. If she had voted against him-which in my mind, was the morally correct thing, since Kavanaugh was too tainted by the Blasey Ford allegations to be appointed to the Court-she would have incurred the wrath of the Republican base, and would be in jeopardy of losing her primary. But she voted for him, and that has now cost her the support of many Democratic and independent voters who had supported her for many years.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It's so frustrating hearing people compare Maine to North Dakota/Indiana/Missouri and thinking this will be a cakewalk. It's not the same at all. Indiana and Missouri were 6x as Republican as Maine in 2016, and North Dakota 12x as Republican. Collins may have lost a lot of crossover appeal, but she also doesn't need crossover appeal anymore.

First of all, nobody is saying this race will be a cake walk for the Democrats. I agree that Collins is no McCaskill or Heitkamp, but I do think she’s being overestimated. Second of all, your last sentence doesn’t make any sense. She DOES need crossover appeal. This is Maine, and even if it’s not as Democratic as it was in 2008, it’s still a blue state and she will need support from a decent amount of Democrats to win.

[MT Treasurer]

If you’re citing that Morning Consult poll, you should also mention that it has Trump's approval in ME at "only" -6, which isn’t particularly good but still on par with PA (also -6) and much better than his numbers in the following states:

NH: -19 (!)
CO: -18
MI: -15
NV: -12
WI: -10 (!)
MN: -10
IA: -9 (!)

So if you’re taking MC at face value, ME is looking much more like a swing state than a blue state.

[MT Treasurer]

yeah its kind of the reverse of AL.

No, it’s not. I’m one of the most cautious posters here when it comes to predicting R pick-ups in red states, but this comparison is ridiculous. Gideon is nowhere near as likely to win as Tuberville/Sessions.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

yeah its kind of the reverse of AL.

No, it’s not. I’m one of the most cautious posters here when it comes to predicting R pick-ups in red states, but this comparison is ridiculous. Gideon is nowhere near as likely to win as Tuberville/Sessions.

The Northeast has the lowest minimum wage, stuck at 7.25 an hour and the Dems in NH are raising the minimum wage. Pelosi has put a minimum wage bill on Mcconnell's desk and he wont sign it. Gideon like Volinsky and Zuckerman will raise the minimum wage and win. Likely D

[pppolitics]

Impeachment Trial Puts Susan Collins, Stung by Kavanaugh Backlash, Under Scrutiny

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/18/us/politics/impeachment-susan-collins.html

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Collins and Ernst will lose on impeachment