Portugal's politics and elections

[Keep Calm and ...]

And PAN?

[Mike88]

And PAN?

Not willing to form a coalition with PS, but willing to talk with the PS and hear what the Socialists have to say.

[Mike88]

Most voted party by parish: (without Azores and Madeira)



Overall, and including Azores and Madeira, PS won 1,866 parishes, PSD won 1,186 parishes, CDU won 22 parishes, CDS won 3 parishes and JPP won 2 parishes. 13 parishes were a tie (11 between PS and PSD; 2 between PS and CDU).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fascinating that BE didn't win any parish despite placing third. I guess their vote is more urban and less regionally concentrated than CDU and CDS's?

[Mike88]

Fascinating that BE didn't win any parish despite placing third. I guess their vote is more urban and less regionally concentrated than CDU and CDS's?

Yes, BE has a very big urban/suburban vote, that doesn't translate in winning parishes, but in strong 3rd places in many big populated parishes. CDU and CDS lost a lot of parishes compared with previous elections. CDS normally was able to win some parishes in Aveiro district, they won zero, and in Viana do Castelo, more specifically, Ponte de Lima, they also normally win a lot of parishes, but this year they've only 2. CDU lost also a lot in the Alentejo region.

[Mike88]

PS is meeting with all leftwing parties today:

The PS is holding meeting with all leftwing parties in Parliament, BE, PCP, PEV, PAN and Livre, to see if there is ground for agreements. Until now, the BE meeting is still ongoing, all parties refused formal agreements with the PS, however they are willing to support PS bills and budgets from time to time and with negotiations before that.

Also, Madeira has a new government:

PSD and CDS signed a coalition agreement, yesterday, and a formal PSD/CDS coalition is due to be sworn in next week. The CDS will get two secretaries in the regional government, plus the Speaker chair in the regional Parliament. This will be the first coalition government in Madeira, but still led by the PSD, in power since 1976.

[Mike88]

Adding to the mainland Portugal parish map, parish results map from Madeira:

https://twitter.com/funchalnoticias/status/1180975240949698567

[Mike88]

PSD leadership: Luís Montenegro will run for the leadership and challenges Rio to do the same.

https://twitter.com/dinheiro_vivo/status/1182037155880660992
Montenegro during his interview, this evening, on SIC TV.

Luís Montenegro, former PSD caucus leader during Passos Coelho tenure, is running for the PSD leadership. The provable least kept secret in Portuguese politics was Montenegro's candidacy for the PSD leadership. He accused Rio of being to close to the PS, and said that Costa and the PS were beatable in these elections, and added that if Rio had performed as well as he did during the campaign, the PSD result would be much better. Montenegro's justice problems also arose, as the reporter asked if his involvement in 2016 Euro paid trips scandal would hurt his prospects, while Montenegro responded that his calm about the case and the accusation is taking too long.

The main doubt, right now, is what will Rui Rio do. Will he ran again? Or surrender and end his leadership?

[Conservatopia]

Ideologically is Montenegro a centrist like Rio or to the right?

[Mike88]

Ideologically is Montenegro a centrist like Rio or to the right?

He's more rightwing than Rio on social issues and more liberal on economic/fiscal issues. Nonetheless, it seems that Montenegro will not be the only candidate from the "Liberal wing" of the PSD, as the deputy mayor of Cascais, Miguel Pinto Luz, is also considering running. He is very little known and his candidacy could be a fiasco if it is, at the end, a Rio vs Montenegro race.

[Mike88]

Until now, 128,572 overseas ballots have reached the Electoral Commission:

The Electoral Commission is updating the number of overseas ballots arriving in Portugal. Some ballots could be invalid as they may have been sent after October 6, we'll see. The ballots will be counted next Wednesday, October 16, and award the remaining 4 MPs still to be elected.

All the data from here.

[bigic]

I think 2 will be given to PSD and 2 to PS.

[Mike88]

I think 2 will be given to PSD and 2 to PS.

Indeed the most accepted prediction is a 2-2 tie between PSD and PS. However, a PSD 3, PS 1 isn't out of the question yet. The most votes come from France, around 40,000, where the PS is quite strong, but the second biggest is Brazil, 21,000, where the PSD is normally very strong. All will come down to margins, no one knows how the overseas voting will go this time, because the record number of ballots received so far.

[Mike88]

PS decides to govern alone and of making no written agreements with any party:

It's the end of the "Geringonça". The PS held a meeting, this evening, to analyze the election results and to give Costa a mandate on how to talk with all the different parties in Parliament. According to Público newspaper, the PS has decided to govern alone and without any written agreements with any party, contrary to what happened in 2015. According to the newspaper, this decision is a huge blow for the BE, as their path of forging a deal between them and the PS is destroyed.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is a bad idea.

[bigic]

Is the opposition able to trigger a second election?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is the opposition able to trigger a second election?

BE and CDU have no reason to do so. They'd probably be blamed for it and would lose even more ground.

[Mike88]

Is the opposition able to trigger a second election?

BE and CDU have no reason to do so. They'd probably be blamed for it and would lose even more ground.

A second election isn't going to happen in the, at least, the next two years. The 2021 local midterm elections will be a crucial test for the government. Until then, Costa will have to negotiate every single bill and budget with the left parties and if there's no agreement between them, he can always turn to the PSD, but here's the tricky part: if Rio continues as leader, Costa could rely on the PSD, in some occasions, but if the PSD changes its leadership to Montenegro, or someone else, Costa will be all alone. The next government has all to ingredients to be quite unstable.

[Mike88]

Controversies surrounding the new parties that arrived in Parliament: Livre and Enough (CH).

About Livre, there seems to be a big fake news campaign against Joacine Katar Moreira. Many social media pages are spreading rumors that she is faking her stutter only for political proposes, that she doesn't have Portuguese nationality and that by raising the flag of Guiné-Bissau, during her victory speech, she violated the Portuguese Constitution and should not be sworn in as a MP.

https://twitter.com/JornalPoligrafo/status/1182734964833566721

The odious disinformation war against Joacine Katar Moreira

André Ventura, newly elected MP from the right-wing Enough! (CH), is also being accused of using Benfica as a way to create his image and party. Many Benfica supporters, high-profile, wrote a letter to the President of Benfica, Luís Filipe Vieira, asking him to distance the club from Ventura as he is using Benfica to spread his divisive, xenophobic and anti-system message, adding that the club of Eusébio and others cannot tolerate that. The Benfica administration refused to comment the letter, adding that Benfica does not differentiate supporters by race, gender, sex or religion. Ventura, on the other hand, accused the people involved in the letter of trying to use Benfica in order to attack him, saying he's sorry to see Benfica's name drag into this.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1182729240783020032

Fan group writes open letter to Benfica because of André Ventura. The MP has already reacted:

[Mike88]

PSD leadership: Rio seems to be preparing his reelection campaign.

Rui Rio, according to the media, is ready to enter in the PSD leadership race. Costa's decision to not make any written deals with any party may have been what made Rio decide to fight for his job, and also, the candidacy of his "nemesis" in the PSD, Luís Montenegro. Rui Rio will probably be the only candidate from the "Social Democratic wing" of the PSD, while the "Liberal wing" is quite divided as a total of 4 candidates could enter in the leadership race from that wing: Luís Montenegro, Miguel Morgado, Miguel Pinto Luz and Jorge Moreira da Silva.

The election are schedule to be held in December 2019/January 2020, and if no candidate receives a majority, a 2nd round will be held.

[crals]

Rio's situation is very Corbyn in 2017-like. He's part of the reason why PSD did poorly but he's also part of the reason why it recovered during the campaign, he can somewhat convincingly blame infighting and the press for much of the party's woes, still has support inside the party, and got a result that was just convincing enough not to be a total defeat (getting over a third of the seats, avoiding an all-time low, preventing a PS majority). I think he will stay on.

[crals]

This is a bad idea.

Why? The alternative was a deal with BE only, which would strain relationships both on the left and with PSD.

[Mike88]

Rio's situation is very Corbyn in 2017-like. He's part of the reason why PSD did poorly but he's also part of the reason why it recovered during the campaign, he can somewhat convincingly blame infighting and the press for much of the party's woes, still has support inside the party, and got a result that was just convincing enough not to be a total defeat (getting over a third of the seats, avoiding an all-time low, preventing a PS majority). I think he will stay on.

Indeed. His leadership was quite poor, but during the campaign, he proved his metal and surprised many with his campaign skills. About the PSD results, I was surprised to see the PSD doing quite well in many urban areas across the country, some where they won, others where they were neck and neck with the PS. About his chances of him being reelected, I don't know. I think he was more support from the average PSD voter rather than the actual PSD membership, as he has created a lot of enemies within the PSD structures. We'll see.

This is a bad idea.

Why? The alternative was a deal with BE only, which would strain relationships both on the left and with PSD.

This outcome was expected. In fact, that round of meetings with all leftwing parties that Costa held seem, IMO, quite ridiculous and a bit degrading. All had an air of theatre. PS would find it almost impossible to accommodate some of BE's demands like the revision of workers laws, minimum wage increases and spending increases, as Mário Centeno would block almost, if not all, of BE's main policy flags.

[Walmart_shopper]

Controversies surrounding the new parties that arrived in Parliament: Livre and Enough (CH).

About Livre, there seems to be a big fake news campaign against Joacine Katar Moreira. Many social media pages are spreading rumors that she is faking her stutter only for political proposes, that she doesn't have Portuguese nationality and that by raising the flag of Guiné-Bissau, during her victory speech, she violated the Portuguese Constitution and should not be sworn in as a MP.

https://twitter.com/JornalPoligrafo/status/1182734964833566721

The odious disinformation war against Joacine Katar Moreira

André Ventura, newly elected MP from the right-wing Enough! (CH), is also being accused of using Benfica as a way to create his image and party. Many Benfica supporters, high-profile, wrote a letter to the President of Benfica, Luís Filipe Vieira, asking him to distance the club from Ventura as he is using Benfica to spread his divisive, xenophobic and anti-system message, adding that the club of Eusébio and others cannot tolerate that. The Benfica administration refused to comment the letter, adding that Benfica does not differentiate supporters by race, gender, sex or religion. Ventura, on the other hand, accused the people involved in the letter of trying to use Benfica in order to attack him, saying he's sorry to see Benfica's name drag into this.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1182729240783020032

Fan group writes open letter to Benfica because of André Ventura. The MP has already reacted:

A liberal black woman politician having questions raised about the authenticity of their nationality and political achievement? You don't say.

[Mike88]

War of words between PS and BE because of the end of the "Geringonça".

The PS announcement of going it alone in government has created a war of words between PS and BE. The Left Bloc is accusing the PS of killing the "Geringonça" agreement, saying that the BE knew about the PS intentions after a meeting between Costa and Business leaders that pleaded to Costa to drop any agreements with leftwing parties. PS, on the other hand, is saying that the "Geringonça" isn't dead and that there is total openness from the PS to work and negotiate with all leftwing parties in the next 4 years.

Marina Costa Lobo, a major political teacher and pundit, summed up the PS decision this way:
https://twitter.com/MarinaCostaLobo/status/1182686395883839489

This announcement by the PS of the end of the "contraption", unceremoniously with the Bloc (BE), dispelled doubts about its true meaning: it was not a structural turn to the left of the PS. Rather tacticism for parliamentary arithmetic reasons in 2015.