MI-WDIV: Whitmer +14

[IceSpear]

Hopefully this margin ends up being accurate so I can look prescient.

The interesting thing is that Whitmer is continually getting decent leads in these polls despite the low name recognition. It makes me wonder if this could end up being the inverse of the 2010 race, especially if Schuette's scandals get worse.

[IceSpear]

Yeah, add this one to the "safe D pickups" list along with IL and NM.

[IceSpear]

A year ago Democratic insiders were wringing their hands saying Whitmer was doomed and we needed to find a man to run for Governor. My how times have changed.

Who knew women could make good candidates?

Indeed. I know a certain place that could take a lesson from this...

[IceSpear]

New Poll: Michigan Governor by Glengariff Group on 2018-09-07

Summary: D: 50%, R: 36%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[IceSpear]

A year ago Democratic insiders were wringing their hands saying Whitmer was doomed and we needed to find a man to run for Governor. My how times have changed.

This was nonsense then and is nonsense now. MI already elected a female governor twice, in 2002 and 2006. And Whitmer seems to run a strong campaign. Most voters don't care about gender. At least not those who vote or might vote Democratic. Same on male Democratic incumbents or candidates. If they're doomed, it's not because of gender.

Honestly, at this point it may in fact be the case that as long as you're a Democrat, it's better electorally to be Female than it is to be Male.

In primaries generally, yeah. But plenty of men have beat women in competitive primaries this year as well: Gillum, Lipinski, Walt Maddox, Mike Levin, Jared Polis, Ige, Case, Casten, Hubbell, Walz, Sisolak, Horsford, Scott Wallace come to mind. It’s hardly as big a penis penalty as Hemorrhoid claims

The fact that one has to strain for examples kind of proves my point. Unqualified women have been winning up and down for no other reason than who they are regardless of how progressive they are via-à-vis the more qualified man (with AOC being a huge exception that proves the rule).  When are people gonna wake up to the Bosse-types owning the Dem party at this point? No men will be left in the party in two decades the more they keep up these antics.

He listed like a dozen examples, I'd hardly call that having to "strain."

[IceSpear]

A year ago Democratic insiders were wringing their hands saying Whitmer was doomed and we needed to find a man to run for Governor. My how times have changed.

This was nonsense then and is nonsense now. MI already elected a female governor twice, in 2002 and 2006. And Whitmer seems to run a strong campaign. Most voters don't care about gender. At least not those who vote or might vote Democratic. Same on male Democratic incumbents or candidates. If they're doomed, it's not because of gender.

What they were freaked about is the fact that the woman who was elected in 2002 and 2006 was politically radioactive, just like Nancy Pelosi was from 2010 until this year. We all knew that whoever the GOP nominee was would just scream GRANHOLM!!!!!!! incessantly and in a Hillary midterm it might have worked. Right now the national environment combined with Snyder fatigue are the reason why the Granholm refrain isn’t winning over voters. It worked in 2010 and 2014, and in a more neutral environment, it probably would have worked in 2018.

Actually, this poll shows Granholm with a 41-41 favorability rating.

It's almost as if running against someone that hasn't been on the ballot in over a decade isn't the best strategy, since time usually rehabilitates the image of past politicians. It would be like Dems running against Dubya in 2020, lol.

[IceSpear]

There is no reason why anyone should think this race is a toss up.

It hasn’t been a tossup since last summer, but I was ridiculed for suggesting that an unpopular Governor and an unpopular President of the same party would be a drag on the party’s chances at holding it.

I've had it at lean D since the spring. I was overly pessimistic and cautious I guess, lol. Whitmer leading by 5-7 points in polls where she had like 20% name recognition (about the same a random name drawn out of a hat would get) was a dead giveaway to the direction of this race.

But at the time, we had geniuses talking about how it was TERRIBLE news for Whitmer that she only led 40-36 or something. Because apparently many people can't read into a poll beyond the toplines.

This thread is a great example of how easily "candidate quality" is confused with "name recognition":

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=277085.0