TN-SEN: Return of the Bredi

[MT Treasurer]

Bredesen likely entered the race for the same reason as Bayh: Private polling show him ahead in the GE. Maybe he thinks those leads are sustainbale without a Democrat in the White House and against an "extreme conservative" () like Blackburn, who knows.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I still think Marsha can pull the W out of this race.

Marsha is definitely by far the favorite right now. I think Marsha beats Bredsen by 12 easily.

She could always be a child diddler though.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Bredesen likely entered the race for the same reason as Bayh: Private polling show him ahead in the GE. Maybe he thinks those leads are sustainbale without a Democrat in the White House and against an "extreme conservative" () like Blackburn, who knows.

Also presumably Bredesen hasn't spent his entire time since 2010 in DC cashing in and securing Harvard admissions for his children.

[Gustaf]

I don't think it's that strange tbh. There haven't been great opportunities to run before since you had fairly moderate strong incumbents in place. In addition, if he didn't want to run in 2008, neither 2012 nor 2014 would have seemed like very good years to run as a Democrat in Tennessee.

Now you have an open seat, unpopular GOP president, wingnut GOP candidate. 

[Pericles]

I hope Bredesen wins, and he seems like a good candidate. He is a bit moderate for me personally but I understand that's necessary for him to win and he seemed to have a good economic message too so he'd probably make a fine Senator. However I doubt he'll manage to overcome Tennessee's partisan lean(it's not a special election and as far as we know Marsha Blackburn isn't a pedophile). Most of the Bredesens don't end up winning despite the hype. Still, I am hopeful and think he can do it if it's a Democratic wave and he proves to be a great candidate(perhaps also Blackburn proves to be a terrible one). So we'll see.

[TomC]

Likely R.

How much of a raging lunatic Blackburn chooses to be will decide the race.

Isn't Stephen Fincher also running on the GOP side? There's a non-zero chance he wins the primary as well...

There's a zero percent chance. Always bet on the nuttiest person winning a Republican primary, and you'll seldom go wrong.

No, patrician (arguably moderate) millionaires Haslam, Corker, and Alexander all faced nutty candidates in their primaries and easily won. Hard right wing nuts winning a statewide primary or general hasn't happened yet in Tennessee. I don't think Fincher is going to beat Blackburn, her name recognition is too high, but she's different from previous statewide nominees, so the winning formula the three men's above used to win the state is one she can't perfectly replicate. Plus she's far from able to be an "outsider". I'm not saying Bredesen will beat her, but to look at past statewide GOP successes and assume this will be viewed in the same way is short sighted.

Edited to add: and Blackburn doesn't really have Obama to run against, and from his ad, Bredesen is clearly running against the dysfunction in DC (as Trump did) and not against Trump himself.

Trump was nutty and he won the primary and then the general by 26 points. Not saying the race is safe R by any means. I want to see polling first. And, as I pointed out above, there had to be a reason why Bredesen suddenly decided he did in fact want to run for Senate after turning down overtures to run in 2006, 2008, 2012 and even initially this year. I suspect the DSCC has something on Blackburn. But I just don't see how Blackburn loses the primary with all of her red meat throwing and name rec/persecution complex from the Twitter video.

In 2006 he ran for re-election as governor and won every county. In 2008 and 12, there were Republican moderates running for re-election, not an open seat. Initially this year, we assumed Corker was running for re-election.

Trump was a nutty outsider populist, not an insider wingnut, but point taken. I was referring to senate and governor races when I referred to statewide races though; those have all been won by moderates who out-primaried more conservative candidates. And in 16, Trump beat more conservative Cruz in the primary. Trump's appeal to racism and anti immigration certainly played a part, but he beat the social conservative Cruz.

I'm not making an outright prediction on the race; my thesis is those who say a movement conservative will obviously beat a non-partisan moderate are only theorizing- no governor or senate race in Tennessee has actually resulted in that outcome yet.

[TomC]

It will be interesting to see the extent Fincher goes to raise Marsha's negatives, which he will most certainly have to do and whether it's that she's too conservative (dangerous tactic) or if he's able to paint her as an insider (tough since he was a Rep. too).

[MAINEiac4434]

I still think Marsha can pull the W out of this race.

She’s the favorite, no question. Bredesen makes it closer, though.

[Donerail]

Also presumably Bredesen hasn't spent his entire time since 2010 in DC cashing in and securing Harvard admissions for his children.

Tragically unable to do so — Ben is free-spirited and instead went to Brown. Now runs a microbrewery on the west side of Nashville

[Pandaguineapig]

https://t.co/ILX98SRTG8?amp=1

A steep climb is now almost vertical

[GlobeSoc]

https://t.co/ILX98SRTG8?amp=1

A steep climb is now almost vertical

Lol Free Beacon.

[Dr. Arch]

Bredesen's introductory video

Freedom Video. It's so calm and warm. I love the guy already.

Yeah. Democrats are recruiting excellent candidates.

[IceSpear]

Likely R.

How much of a raging lunatic Blackburn chooses to be will decide the race.

It might decide if she wins by 10 or 20 points.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Bredesen's introductory video

Freedom Video. It's so calm and warm. I love the guy already.

Yeah. Democrats are recruiting excellent candidates.

Awesome video! Endorsed.

[Sestak]

Bredesen's introductory video

Freedom Video. It's so calm and warm. I love the guy already.

Yeah. Democrats are recruiting excellent candidates.

Awesome video! Endorsed.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lol Mackler is screwed XD.

[TomC]

Lol Mackler is screwed XD.

Agreed. I feel sorry for him. For a nobody coming out of nowhere, he was really running a pretty good race campaign. I intend to vote for him.

[Brittain33]

https://t.co/ILX98SRTG8?amp=1

A steep climb is now almost vertical

Lol Free Beacon.

[mcmikk]

RIP James Mackler. Press F to pay respects.

In all seriousness, I liked him, but I would certainly vote for Bredesen if I were able. He actually has a record of winning statewide before, and I don't really like the idea of running randos for statewide office. Mackler has the potential for a great career, but he should start with Congress first, not the Senate.

[TheLeftwardTide]

RIP James Mackler. Press F to pay respects.

In all seriousness, I liked him, but I would certainly vote for Bredesen if I were able. He actually has a record of winning statewide before, and I don't really like the idea of running randos for statewide office. Mackler has the potential for a great career, but he should start with Congress first, not the Senate.

This.

Even though Bredesen is quite moderate, he is to the left of Manchin and Heitkamp (probably more conservative than Donnelly though), and was a very competent governor. Tennessee has a history of electing competent politicians compared to the rest of the South, anyway (Kefauver, both Gores, and Sasser from the Democrats, and at least Bill Haslam from the Republicans), at least in my opinion.

There's also the "opportunist" argument ("best chance to win!!!1!11!!one11!") too, I guess...

[Alabama_Indy10]

http://dailycaller.com/2017/12/08/top-dem-in-tennessee-senate-race-probably-wont-be-for-much-longer/

Article saying that Bredesen’s administration covered up sexual assaults. Hope it’s not true because he seems like a huge FF

[mcmikk]

http://dailycaller.com/2017/12/08/top-dem-in-tennessee-senate-race-probably-wont-be-for-much-longer/

Article saying that Bredesen’s administration covered up sexual assaults. Hope it’s not true because he seems like a huge FF

I hope so, too. I like the guy and I don't want him to be ruined by this. That said, the article is from the Daily Caller, so I'm going to take it with a grain of salt for now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

RIP James Mackler. Press F to pay respects.

In all seriousness, I liked him, but I would certainly vote for Bredesen if I were able. He actually has a record of winning statewide before, and I don't really like the idea of running randos for statewide office. Mackler has the potential for a great career, but he should start with Congress first, not the Senate.

This.

Even though Bredesen is quite moderate, he is to the left of Manchin and Heitkamp (probably more conservative than Donnelly though), and was a very competent governor. Tennessee has a history of electing competent politicians compared to the rest of the South, anyway (Kefauver, both Gores, and Sasser from the Democrats, and at least Bill Haslam from the Republicans), at least in my opinion.

There's also the "opportunist" argument ("best chance to win!!!1!11!!one11!") too, I guess...

Don't forget Howard Baker.

[mcmikk]

http://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2017/12/08/phil-bredesen-us-senate-race-im-not-running-against-donald-trump/936295001/

Interesting article on Bredesen's strategy. Seems like what I would advise him to do, except I'd pledge to serve one term. I think that would play pretty well.

Also, everyone on Atlas seems to have declared the race Safe R from the get-go, but I want to see it unfold a little first, especially with polling. Bredesen is not a fool, and he admitted as much that he wouldn't have run if he thought it was a suicide mission, and he "did [his] homework."

I really hope Bredesen wins. He seems like a big FF/generally nice and good guy and he deserves that seat way more than crazy b***h Blackburn. Don't know why he would not only go into his term planning to run for reelection, but publicly declare that as well. Would have been smarter to say to serve just one term--considering he would be 80--or at least say his reelection plans were TBD.

[Doimper]

http://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2017/12/08/phil-bredesen-us-senate-race-im-not-running-against-donald-trump/936295001/

Interesting article on Bredesen's strategy. Seems like what I would advise him to do, except I'd pledge to serve one term. I think that would play pretty well.

Also, everyone on Atlas seems to have declared the race Safe R from the get-go, but I want to see it unfold a little first, especially with polling. Bredesen is not a fool, and he admitted as much that he wouldn't have run if he thought it was a suicide mission, and he "did [his] homework."

I really hope Bredesen wins. He seems like a big FF/generally nice and good guy and he deserves that seat way more than crazy b***h Blackburn. Don't know why he would not only go into his term planning to run for reelection, but publicly declare that as well. Would have been smarter to say to serve just one term--considering he would be 80--or at least say his reelection plans were TBD.

I hope we get one or two Blackburn-Bredesen matchup polls in the coming weeks. This is going to be an interesting race.