How we can know if Trump has a low ceiling or not

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I posted this a bit ago in a comment thread on predictit, and it is I think the key issue in determining the success or failure of Donald Trump's candidacy going forward. I'm re-posting it here, in full, and am curious to see if anyone else is looking at this the same way I am.

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Thoughts?

[Ronnie]

Are you saying it would be worrying for his campaign in the GE or the rest of the nominating process?

As far as I can tell, Trump does have a fairly low national ceiling in a 3-way race between him, Rubio, and Cruz, but it's still unclear whether that actually matters.  In a circumstance in which he would consistently hover around 39%, and Rubio and Cruz would be stuck in the low 30s/high 20s, Trump would still do well enough to win in most states, as far as I can tell.  I'm pretty sure the dynamic changes if Cruz drops out, though; Trump's ceiling would probably increase significantly.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Are you saying it would be worrying for his campaign in the GE or the rest of the nominating process?

As far as I can tell, Trump does have a fairly low national ceiling in a 3-way race between him, Rubio, and Cruz, but it's still unclear whether that actually matters.  In a circumstance in which he would consistently hover around 39%, and Rubio and Cruz would be stuck in the low 30s/high 20s, Trump would still do well enough to win in most states, as far as I can tell.  I'm pretty sure the dynamic changes if one of Cruz or Rubio drops out, though.

I'm talking about the nominating process. Trying to figure out what is going to happen in November is an even more frustrating issue.

[RaphaelDLG]

Find as much large sample data on second choices as possible.  There's your potential answer.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Find as much large sample data on second choices as possible.  There's your potential answer.

This can help, but a healthy dose of skepticism is useful when looking at data like that. A lot of people feel far less strongly about their second choice than they do about their first choice.

[Orser67]

Interesting thought. If you look at Huffpo's pollster trend, it doesn't really show much movement for Trump since the end of Carson's sharp decline in mid-December. Instead, it's Rubio and Kasich who have shown momentum in the last couple weeks.

[Sir Mohamed]

Interesting thought. If you look at Huffpo's pollster trend, it doesn't really show much movement for Trump since the end of Carson's sharp decline in mid-December. Instead, it's Rubio and Kasich who have shown momentum in the last couple weeks.

Carson's support went mainly to Cruz.