US House Redistricting: Ohio

[minionofmidas]

Lol 15th.

Someone do me a detailed reconstruction of the 16th... R's must be feeling fairly confident of winning it (or just seeing no better way to keep Renacci alive).

How solid is the 1st district shore-up of Chabot - not today (I have little doubt it's solid in 2012), but for later in the decade?

Chabot got a 7 point boost from 2008.

Thanks, that's utterly solid then probably.

[minionofmidas]

I'm guessing they are trying to keep Austria semi-content by letting him stick with his current counties.  

Or maybe they're actually trying to get rid of Turner? Or even looking ahead to his retirement - his current seat is competitive without him?

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Side by side comparison:



Looks like we have a new winner!

[dpmapper]

Side by side comparison:



Looks like we have a new winner!

Most of the ugliness in Illinois's map is not visible at the state-wide scale.  Zoom into the Chicago area and then put up the comparison again. 

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Side by side comparison:

Looks like we have a new winner!

Most of the ugliness in Illinois's map is not visible at the state-wide scale.  Zoom into the Chicago area and then put up the comparison again. 

My comment stands.

[minionofmidas]

That's merely why Illinois was even in the running til this map was released.

[BigSkyBob]

The Illinois maps and the Ohio maps are clear evidence that the redistricters here are amateurs compared to career politicians. The Illinois Democrats worked their magic by shuffling constituents between districts as much as running up the Obama percentages. In Ohio, they not only created a pretty sold 12-4, but, they set the groundwork for cracking Kaptur's district in the next round. That was one of the things for which I was looking.

[minionofmidas]

Somebody take a look for me at where that Canton split runs, exactly. Also, Mahoning.

[Miles]

Side by side comparison:



Looks like we have a new winner!

hmmm.....



Tough call between NC and OH.

[dpmapper]

Side by side comparison:

Looks like we have a new winner!

Most of the ugliness in Illinois's map is not visible at the state-wide scale.  Zoom into the Chicago area and then put up the comparison again. 

My comment stands.

I'd say they're about even, purely talking shapes here.  OH15 = IL4.  OH7 = IL6.  OH9 is slightly worse than IL7.  OH16 = IL5.  But then you still have the strippiness of IL1,2,3,9,11 to deal with.  Maybe they're no worse than OH1, 11, 13, but there are more of them.  And then add in the fact that the IL boundaries are much more jagged than the OH ones (I suspect they split many more municipalities).  

[RBH]

is there something we should know about Clark County that prevents it from being in the same district as Mike Turner and Steve Austria? moving Clark to that district means that the 15th looks less like a melted stapler than before.

[minionofmidas]

is there something we should know about Clark County that prevents it from being in the same district as Mike Turner and Steve Austria? moving Clark to that district means that the 15th looks less like a melted stapler than before.

There are considerable numbers of people living there. It's marginal. Add it in, and you get a seat only Turner can be *safe* in.

[dpmapper]

is there something we should know about Clark County that prevents it from being in the same district as Mike Turner and Steve Austria? moving Clark to that district means that the 15th looks less like a melted stapler than before.

There are considerable numbers of people living there. It's marginal. Add it in, and you get a seat only Turner can be *safe* in.

I think he's talking about the part of Clark that's in the 15th, not all of Clark.  The rural parts of Clark are fairly red, and yes, they would make more sense in the 10th, giving the 15th more of Fairfield Cty.  Plus they used to be in Austria's district, so he shouldn't mind trading his former constituents in Fairfield for those in Clark. 

[RBH]

is there something we should know about Clark County that prevents it from being in the same district as Mike Turner and Steve Austria? moving Clark to that district means that the 15th looks less like a melted stapler than before.

There are considerable numbers of people living there. It's marginal. Add it in, and you get a seat only Turner can be *safe* in.

yeah, but Steve Austria beating Mike Turner in a primary seems sort of hard to believe. Even if you try an even-steven split between the 3rd and 7th. Clark in the 15th looks like the areas outside of the blue Springfield (which is dropped in the 4th).

At least I know why the Austro-Turnerian Empire is District 10. 3 plus 7 equals 10. I was expecting them to top the 10th off in Columbus, the 13th gets to be Ryan's district, the 3rd is the Turner/Austria district. and the 7th is Gibbs district. So I went 2 for 4.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That 15th might be the ugliest proposed district yet, and I don't think it's likely to be topped.

[TJ in Oregon]

I mapped it on the DRA as best I could (ie. without splitting precincts and a little ambiguous on some municipality splits) and came up with this:

OH-1: Chabot (R-Cincinnati) R+6.73
OH-2: Schmidt (R-Loveland) R+8.72
OH-3: OPEN (D-Columbus) D+15.01
OH-4: Jordan (R-Urbana) R+8.20
OH-5: Latta (R-Bowling Green) R+6.27
OH-6: Johnson (R-Marietta) R+8.11
OH-7: Gibbs (R-Lakeville) R+6.06
OH-8: Boehner (R-West Chester) R+13.38
OH-9: Kaptur (D-Toledo) and Kucinich (D-Cleveland) D+12.17
OH-10: Turner (R-Dayton), and Austria (R-Beavercreek) R+6.78
OH-11: Fudge (D-Warrensville Hts.) D+28.36 50.28% Black VAP
OH-12: Tiberi (R-Galena) R+9.52
OH-13: Ryan (D-Niles) D+9.63
OH-14: LaTourette (R-Bainbridge Twp.) R+4.20
OH-15: Stivers (R-Columbus) R+7.56
OH-16: Renacci (R-Wadsworth) and Sutton (D-Copley)R+6.02

I am a little disappointed the GOP drew something that ugly and it isn't even an exceptionally well done gerrymander. A lot of the nasty-ness is just unnecessary.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

If Republicans are smart, they'll have someone lined up to primary Schmidt. She could lose that seat.

[muon2]

Given the actual 12-4 map that came out today, I find the comments on my draft a year ago worth a revisit. My guess is the Dems might happily take it today.

Hey, Muon2, are you going to drink the kook-aid and now put all those Dems in Columbus in one of more GOP districts, rather than just give up, and give them a CD, or, alternatively do something creative, and combine them with some Dems in Cleveland or Akron, thereby creating some hideous looking gerrymander for the ages map, or what? 

What? You didn't appreciate my Sept. offering? Look how neat and compact most of the districts are as well. Of course, with the 5 district pick up this week, a map like this would still cost on GOP member in 2012.

If I assume GOP control, then this was my attempt to maximize their result. I kept counties as intact as possible and kept districts defensibly compact. The VRA district links Akron to Cleveland along the Cuyahoga Valley NP. Based on the nearly even presidential results of 2004 to judge the districts this would be 12-4 in favor of the GOP.

That thing is a monstrosity   Well done

Yep, splitting Dayton and Cinci, plus dividing Columbus and environs up into 4 separate districts to ensure GOP domination in the congressional district is positively evil, Muon. I didn't know you were one of those mad scientist types.

Sadly, I wouldn't put anything this horrid past the Ohio GOP.

[krazen1211]

It does still seem like OH-6 should have been routed into the Columbus suburbs while OH-12 was routed into some of those Ohio River Counties.

[Brittain33]

Torie, I owe you an apology for refusing to believe OH republicans would draw a map this convoluted.

[krazen1211]

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2011/09/dennis_kucinich_sees_new_distr.html

Dennis Kucinich sees new district as a positive, 'amazing turn of events'

"It is an amazing turn of events that the legislature decided not to dismantle the district I represent.
"I have been praying that I could continue to serve my Cleveland-area constituency and it looks like I have a chance.
"That is all I could have hoped for."



He should have kept his mouth shut.  9th is 43% old Kucinich turf, 36% Kaptur.

[BigSkyBob]

If Republicans are smart, they'll have someone lined up to primary Schmidt. She could lose that seat.

If Republicans were smart they wouldn't take the advice of liberal Democrats.

[Brittain33]

If Republicans are smart, they'll have someone lined up to primary Schmidt. She could lose that seat.

If Republicans were smart they wouldn't take the advice of liberal Democrats.

Do you have an affirmative case for keeping Schmidt in office? Any Republican who replaces her would be equally conservative and much less likely to lose the seat in a D wave.

[TJ in Oregon]

Do you have an affirmative case for keeping Schmidt in office? Any Republican who replaces her would be equally conservative and much less likely to lose the seat in a D wave.

That depends on how you measure 'conservative'. Schmidt is socially to the right of almost everyone but she has on occasion voted for pro-union measures. Her "Generic Republican" replacement would likely be slightly to her left socially and slightly to her right fiscally. Still, in essence you're right; whoever represents that part of the state isn't going to be a RINO.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Torie, I owe you an apology for refusing to believe OH republicans would draw a map this convoluted.