US House Redistricting: Ohio

[Linus Van Pelt]

No, if the GOP puts Renacci in Kucinich's seat, Gibbs and Johnson would each get their own. The only problem with this is that Renacci might not be a perfect fit for Cleveland.

Right: got confused about the numbering. Sorry.

[minionofmidas]

Wait, krazen, shouldn't keeping Kucinich sorta alive and especially eliminating Sutton require Fudge to anchor into Akron?

[krazen1211]

Something like this would be my version of that plan.




The key point is making sure Latuorette has a good district that he will like. Here McCain won the gold district by 1.3 points.

The 10th (pink) is a 52% Obama/58% Dem district that sort of loops and collects random leftovers. Such also does not disrupt other districts much, if at all, and I would think the 10th district would really be considered a bonus by the OH GOP and not a necessity.

Based on what TJ said above I tried to keep Renacci in the same district he has now. He could simply pick up his needed ~30k people to the south in, say, very Republican Richland County.

[dpmapper]

Don't you need Akron's blacks in the 11th to get above 50%?  Also, if you do that with your 10th then it just becomes Sutton's district, which misses the point of giving it to Kucinich.  For this strategy to be effective I think you need to confine the 10th to Cuyahoga and Lorain (and maybe part of Medina), cutting out Sutton's home base in Summit County.  Put Sutton in with Ryan or Fudge.   

Finally, it would be extremely helpful to get Canton into Ryan's district. 

[krazen1211]

Don't you need Akron's blacks in the 11th to get above 50%?  Also, if you do that with your 10th then it just becomes Sutton's district, which misses the point of giving it to Kucinich.  For this strategy to be effective I think you need to confine the 10th to Cuyahoga and Lorain (and maybe part of Medina), cutting out Sutton's home base in Summit County.  Put Sutton in with Ryan or Fudge.   

Finally, it would be extremely helpful to get Canton into Ryan's district. 

You do. The question is whether Akron wants to be in a district with Cleveland and whether anyone will care if the district sits at 47% or so.

Sutton actually has very little overlap in that 10th. Most of it is Kucinich territory in Cuyahoga. Akron and Lorain are elsewhere; and only 110k or so people in that district are in Summit County; and its more Republican than the Cuyahoga portion.

I suspect the Canton leg, as useful as it is, is unlikely. But if you wanted that you would have to take the 6th up into the Mahoning Valley more.

[dpmapper]

I understand that it's more Kucinich territory than Sutton, but it's still the district she would run in (and probably win a primary vs. Kucinich, given that the deepest blue parts have been put into Fudge's district).  For the strategy to be effective, you need to make sure that Kucinich is the Dem nominee, and that means making sure Sutton doesn't run.  It's probably worth it to make it a 55-56% Obama district if that ensures that Kucinich is the nominee, not to mention it allows Renacci to take the redder parts of the Summit section of your 10th in exchange for Ryan's district taking Canton... or at least Alliance. 

[TJ in Oregon]

The easiest way to make sure Kucinich beats Sutton is to remove everyting south of Coppley and add more of northern Medina County and Brecksville and Broadview Heights even if it damages the 14th half a point or something. Put Brunswick into the 10th. It's one of the wealthier suburbs on the west side where I'd expect Obama to overperform. If the GOP draws a map looking like that, I expect the Republican nominee to be former Cuyahoga County Republican Chairman Rob Frost of Lakewood, so the GOP would have a Clevelander, not someone from Akron or Lorain. Whatever shifts the geography toward Cleveland helps Kucinich against Sutton and will also help the GOP in general election provided the partisan balance is about the same. Do not draw the 10th 55-56% Obama whatever you do because the 10th is not a wealthy suburban district that will favor the GOP in Congressional elections more than presidential ones. 55-56% and Kucinich will be re-elected.

[krazen1211]

Good points. I will try to remap it.

I would think that Lakewood, Parma, the small piece of Cleveland, and the rest of the Dem leaning areas in Cuyahoga would give Kucinich enough of a base to win a primary.

Northern Medina County is a place that Sutton lost in the last election, and barely won in the one before. It would be a good fit, though I figured Renacci would want as much of Medina as possible.

That would also help move Alliance or Canton out of the 16th.

[Torie]

Good points. I will try to remap it.

I would think that Lakewood, Parma, the small piece of Cleveland, and the rest of the Dem leaning areas in Cuyahoga would give Kucinich enough of a base to win a primary.

Northern Medina County is a place that Sutton lost in the last election, and barely won in the one before. It would be a good fit, though I figured Renacci would want as much of Medina as possible.

That would also help move Alliance or Canton out of the 16th.

Go for it boys. I look forward to seeing that CD that is cyan generically, but pink for Kuch.  It seems a bit too clever by half really.  Plus is Kuch really going to underperform that much in the new more isolationist environment out there?

[TJ in Oregon]

Go for it boys. I look forward to seeing that CD that is cyan generically, but pink for Kuch.  It seems a bit too clever by half really.  Plus is Kuch really going to underperform that much in the new more isolationist environment out there?

The thing is you can make that CD R+2 to R+3 so it would be generally pink and only cyan for a strong Dem (unless you are using Atlas colors). It's certainly not a guarentee for the Republicans but with equal opponents, the GOP is more likely to win it than not.

The other thing to keep in mind is that Kucinich has a completely different base of supporters in Cleveland than he does nationally. Here, he's primarily likely for preserving the Municipal Lighting Company in the 70s and for a sense of ethnic community pride. He runs much better in poorer conservadem places than in wealthier liberal ones. He's something of a local icon more than anything else. The main reason why he's lost so much popularity isn't really because of his political views but more becasue he hasn't written any decent legislation since he starting running for president. The man has turned into a walking caricature. Sutton has pretty much no cross-party appeal either. Neither Kucinich nor Sutton has any chance of winning an R+2 to R+3 seat unless the national environment is heavily in favor of the Democrats.

My main concern if this is the Republicans plan isn't OH-10, it's the fact that they haven't dealt with Columbus at all. That could cost us 2, maybe even 3 seats depending on how it's drawn.

[Torie]

Well a plus 2%-3% CD is not one that most Dems would win, but not Kuch, which I thought was what the gossip in that post was about. That is more like the maps we have drawn more of less no, to varying degrees? The Columbus chop could probably hold for a decade absent a GOP tank if the gerrymandering is ruthless like my map was. That gets the CD's in the chop all up to around a 5% GOP PVI. One problem with ceding Columbus is that it does not shore up the Eastern Ohio GOP CD's because of geography. The only Dem thing that can be neutralized really is Athens by doing it, which is rather thin beer.

[dpmapper]

Good points. I will try to remap it.

I would think that Lakewood, Parma, the small piece of Cleveland, and the rest of the Dem leaning areas in Cuyahoga would give Kucinich enough of a base to win a primary.

Northern Medina County is a place that Sutton lost in the last election, and barely won in the one before. It would be a good fit, though I figured Renacci would want as much of Medina as possible.

That would also help move Alliance or Canton out of the 16th.

Go for it boys. I look forward to seeing that CD that is cyan generically, but pink for Kuch.  It seems a bit too clever by half really.  Plus is Kuch really going to underperform that much in the new more isolationist environment out there?

Well, Kerry got 58% in OH-10, whereas Obama only got 59%.  That would seem to indicate either that the district is trending rightward, or that Obama underperformed there (probably a mix of both).  Kucinich got 57% in 2008, underperforming even Obama.  So in a D+8 district where Obama only got D+6, Kucinich ran as if it was D+4.  So maybe if you make it a D+1-2 district, with a lot of newer, more rural swing voters in Lorain and possibly elsewhere that will be ignorant of Dennis's glory days and only know him from his recent shtick, the GOP would have a reasonably good shot at him. 

[TJ in Oregon]

I wrote that based on the assumption that what Mr. X posted on the previous page was what the Republicans are trying to do and it included splitting Columbus three ways. I think the GOP should under no circumstances split Columbus three ways and it needs to either be a pack or a four-way split. I'd prefer a four-way split but the Ohio GOP may not be as willing to draw nasty looking lines. The current map has an R+7, a D+1, and a D+2. All of them are trending in the Democratic direction. Preserving this is a dummymander. This is a much bigger concern to me than whether Kucinich is running in a seat that is R+3 or R+5. Either way he is likely to lose and the Republicans are likely to hold the seat more often than not. The Republicans are going to have three Eastern Ohio seats more marginal than they'd like no matter what they do: the 6th, Kucinich's, and the 14th.

[Torie]

Yes, Columbus has to be a quad chop. OH-04 needs to join the party, or it's a GOP bust.  OH-07 just doesn't have much in the way of excess Pubs to spread around.  OH-07 sucked up but two additionally heavily Dem wards in Columbus (about a dozen precincts) when I did my map, and it was done. It was maxed out.

So I don't expect to see that - a tri-chop - at all. OH-04 has a lot of excess Pubs, and can be drawn in its northern reaches to have even more.

[TJ in Oregon]

Well, Kerry got 58% in OH-10, whereas Obama only got 59%.  That would seem to indicate either that the district is trending rightward, or that Obama underperformed there (probably a mix of both).  Kucinich got 57% in 2008, underperforming even Obama.  So in a D+8 district where Obama only got D+6, Kucinich ran as if it was D+4.  So maybe if you make it a D+1-2 district, with a lot of newer, more rural swing voters in Lorain and possibly elsewhere that will be ignorant of Dennis's glory days and only know him from his recent shtick, the GOP would have a reasonably good shot at him. 

But if you're going to do that, why stop at D+1? Why not just make it R+3 so that you should win it no matter who the Democrat is? R+3 really isn't any harder to draw and you don't start getting into trouble until R+4.

And yes, I would assume that the western part of Cuyahoga County is slowly trending in the GOP's directon.

[TJ in Oregon]

Yes, Columbus has to be a quad chop. OH-04 needs to join the party, or it's a GOP bust.  OH-07 just doesn't have much in the way of excess Pubs to spread around.  OH-07 sucked up but two additionally heavily Dem wards in Columbus (about a dozen precincts) when I did my map, and it was done. It was maxed out.

So I don't expect to see that - a tri-chop - at all. OH-04 has a lot of excess Pubs, and can be drawn in its northern reaches to have even more.

Good, becuase keeping the tri-chop would be an epically dumb idea for the Ohio GOP and it would suprise me if they made the mistake of doing it.

[krazen1211]

But if you're going to do that, why stop at D+1? Why not just make it R+3 so that you should win it no matter who the Democrat is? R+3 really isn't any harder to draw and you don't start getting into trouble until R+4.

And yes, I would assume that the western part of Cuyahoga County is slowly trending in the GOP's directon.

Mostly ugliness of the lines. You can condense the Democrats to 3 districts in Northern Ohio with very Torie-like juts, but if they don't do that you are slightly constrained.

[Torie]

But if you're going to do that, why stop at D+1? Why not just make it R+3 so that you should win it no matter who the Democrat is? R+3 really isn't any harder to draw and you don't start getting into trouble until R+4.

And yes, I would assume that the western part of Cuyahoga County is slowly trending in the GOP's directon.

Mostly ugliness of the lines. You can condense the Democrats to 3 districts in Northern Ohio with very Torie-like juts, but if they don't do that you are slightly constrained.

TJ's map gets rid of the gross erosiites at a cost of only a couple of Pubbie points.  At least that is what he says, and I accept his representations. He's thinking of his map when he uses that plus 2%-3% Pubbie PVI number for the eastern/southern Cuyahoga/Lorain etc. CD.

[dpmapper]

But if you're going to do that, why stop at D+1? Why not just make it R+3 so that you should win it no matter who the Democrat is? R+3 really isn't any harder to draw and you don't start getting into trouble until R+4.

And yes, I would assume that the western part of Cuyahoga County is slowly trending in the GOP's directon.

Mostly ugliness of the lines. You can condense the Democrats to 3 districts in Northern Ohio with very Torie-like juts, but if they don't do that you are slightly constrained.

I would think it's more that you can save the extra R points for the other NE Ohio GOP districts.  The more D you allow CD10 to be (by moving it farther into west Cleveland), the more Dems in other places (eastern Cleveland suburbs, Akron area, etc) you can stuff into Fudge and Ryan, which benefits LaTourette, Renacci, Johnson.  Making a full-blown 13-3 is tougher than a 12-3-Kucinich swing. 

[Torie]

But if you're going to do that, why stop at D+1? Why not just make it R+3 so that you should win it no matter who the Democrat is? R+3 really isn't any harder to draw and you don't start getting into trouble until R+4.

And yes, I would assume that the western part of Cuyahoga County is slowly trending in the GOP's directon.

Mostly ugliness of the lines. You can condense the Democrats to 3 districts in Northern Ohio with very Torie-like juts, but if they don't do that you are slightly constrained.

I would think it's more that you can save the extra R points for the other NE Ohio GOP districts.  The more D you allow CD10 to be (by moving it farther into west Cleveland), the more Dems in other places (eastern Cleveland suburbs, Akron area, etc) you can stuff into Fudge and Ryan, which benefits LaTourette, Renacci, Johnson.  Making a full-blown 13-3 is tougher than a 12-3-Kucinich swing. 

Mostly Renacci by a percentage point or two, and maybe 50-75 basis points for LaTourette. The impact on Gibbs and Johnson would be minimal. The erosity of the Youngstown CD has more to do with the prospects of the latter two.

[Torie]

What do you all think of this little effort? Doesn't it look just so fair and reasonable and all?  And surely Kuch can win the Dem primary here no?  OH-10 was carried by Obama by 7%, 52.8 to 45.8. It's PVI is about dead even.  I also include an income map of Cleveland from 2000.








 

[Torie]

However, making OH-10 beautiful jams OH-14, and it becomes defaced a bit. And so it goes.

[dpmapper]

What are the stats on that OH-14, Torie?  Might it be worth it to push OH-10 a little farther west (eg, taking all of rural Lorain other than Oberlin) so that OH-14 can grab redder territory, even if this means OH-11 snakes down to Akron via a less optimal route?  (After all, LaTourette is the GOP's point man on this issue.) 

[Torie]

What are the stats on that OH-14, Torie?  Might it be worth it to push OH-10 a little farther west (eg, taking all of rural Lorain other than Oberlin) so that OH-14 can grab redder territory, even if this means OH-11 snakes down to Akron via a less optimal route?  (After all, LaTourette is the GOP's point man on this issue.)  

49.4% McCain, 49% Obama in OH-14;  GOP PVI +3.8%  The numbers for OH-14 are like the speed of light. They stay the same no matter what you do. In my earlier map it was GOP PVI +4.0% (and that was when I ignored municipal lines for CD's that I wanted to bump up the GOP numbers, as opposed to this iteration.  The only really juicy slug of GOP precincts in the vicinity is in North Canton, and one can't get there. Moving west in Cuyahoga is a sea of deep blue, except on the wrong side of the Maginot line created by OH-11's trip to black Akron on the south end (and those are somewhat marginal), and in Summit County - again on the wrong side of the Maginot line. That might be worth about 25 basis points in any event - max.

I drew OH-16 and OH-06. Both are 52.3% McCain, for a GOP PVI of +7.2% each.  That represents the dividend for making OH-10 a swing CD which is supposedly Kuch Dem primary friendly. OH-10 could be made about a point more GOP by cutting back OH-11's reach in Akron in exchange for eating up some 65% Obama precincts in west Cleveland, but those precincts are mostly white and per the alleged plan, I assume are needed to help Kuch win his primary. So thus its lines, which lines also push up the GOP numbers in OH-16 a bit since OH-13 can suck up more Dem precincts in Summit County.

Gibbs and Renasci (sp) are in the same CD now (OH-16), and will fight it out. Or Gibbs can move from Holmes County into OH-06 and try his luck there. He's probably done, unless he has substantially superior political talents to  Renasci or Johnson. OH-16 is mostly new territory for him, and primarily suburban, a demographic with which Gibbs would not be familiar representing.



By the way, in this iteration, OH-07 is probably going to have to lose the two black wards in Columbus it sucked up in my initial map (it already had a bit of heavily Dem territory in Columbus and a couple of small suburbs in Franklin County which it will keep), so that OH-07 can suck up Athens County. OH-12 will take up those precincts, but in exchange be shoved a bit east from my earlier map to pick up some heavily GOP precincts in the balance of Ashland County, and about half of Wayne County. At least that is what is in my mind's eye. Some of the western Ohio CD's other than OH-09  move east since OH-09 is moving west from my first map since it is being bounced from Cuyahoga County and a bit  of Lorain over which it traveled to get to Cuyahoga.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Here's my disgusting gerrymander that shores up LaTourette's district by packing his Dems in with Kucinich. Sutton gets screwed by being put in either Renacci's or Fudge's district, depending on exactly where in Copley she lives.



OH-10 (Yellow): 58.9% Obama
OH-11 (Green): 51.7% VAP Black.
OH-14 (Bronze): 51.5% McCain
OH-16 (Gray): 53.5% McCain
(Formerly) OH-17 (Purple): 61.1% Obama

The Republican loser is either Johnson or Gibbs, whoever loses the primary in this district:



OH-6 (Cyan): 52.1% McCain