IA-Selzer: Warren 22, Biden 20, Sanders 11, Buttigieg 9, Harris 6

[Landslide Lyndon]

Wow, Sanders isn't even in the top 4 for those over 55. That's a a death sentence.

Let's hope so.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Queen Liz is inevitable

inevitable she loses to trump yes

Please continue believing this, and tell all your friends that she can't win as well.

she can't win her positions are way outside the mainstream

Please, you don't even know her positions.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Also, I guess we can safely retire the talking point of Saint Bernie being The Most Popular Politician in America.

[Landslide Lyndon]

She underperformed Clinton last year, I mean she was the only incumbent democratic senator to do so (with Menendez). She is toxic with white non college voters, and would underperform in wealthy suburbs, nominating her would be a gift to Trump.

And Republicans nominating extremist Ronald Reagan was a gift to Jimmy Carter.
And Democrats nominating draft-dodging philanderer Bill Clinton was a gift to Bush sr.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Also, I guess we can safely retire the talking point of Saint Bernie being The Most Popular Politician in America.

Bernie's 2016 policies are adopted by every Dem candidate except Biden, so whether you want him or not, you're getting Bernie in 2020.

Nice try moving the goalposts.

[Landslide Lyndon]

She underperformed Clinton last year, I mean she was the only incumbent democratic senator to do so (with Menendez). She is toxic with white non college voters, and would underperform in wealthy suburbs, nominating her would be a gift to Trump.

And Republicans nominating extremist Ronald Reagan was a gift to Jimmy Carter.
And Democrats nominating draft-dodging philanderer Bill Clinton was a gift to Bush sr.

And what’s your point ? Are you denying that Warren was one the of the only two democratic incumbent senator up in last year to underperform Clinton ? It’s a fact, whether you like it or not.

My point is that when an incumbent runs for reelection, the election is a referendum on him and his record. That's why he always gets a percentage of the vote that more or less equals his approval rating.
The challenger's credentials, ideology, personality, etc., play a minor role, as long as he/she isn't Roy Moore-like radioactive.

So, if people think on election day that Trump is doing a good job, he'll get reelected. If they don't, they'll choose his opponent no matter how loud people like you scream about him/her being a socialist.  

[Landslide Lyndon]

You say the darndest things.
That wasn't true in 2004 or in 2012.

Um, yes it was.

[Landslide Lyndon]

How can you say this though? Do you have compelling evidence that she'd do poorly among Obama/Trump voters?

He's just saying that because of how Warren makes him feel. I really would like to know how someone who doesn't even live in America knows what American voters want.

Warren at the very least would win back MI/WI/PA. Even if she can't exploit the shifts in the Sun Belt they're coming sooner or later so GOP is screwed there long term regardless.

Well, you don’t even know what Georgians want, so don’t lecture me about this.


And no, Warren would have some difficulties to win back PA, 350.000 jobs depend from the fossil fuel industry in this state, banning natural gas and fracking won’t play well.

Yes, and Iowans knew that they will be hurt by Trump's tariffs. And Texans knew that they will be hurt by Trump's intention to get out of NAFTA. And yet they voted for him.

BTW, nice of you to ignore my points.  

[Landslide Lyndon]

In PA elections are won or lost on the margins. Winning 40% in Washington county rather than 35% could be the difference between winning and losing the state as whole.

LOL, no Democrat is going to take 40% in Washington county even if he comes out with a t-shirt that says I fracking.