If Florida starts leaning Democrat, what next for GOP?

[old timey villain]

Florida is interesting.

It seems that whenever one demographic in the state swings to the Democrat, another group swings Republican, and vice versa. Florida's large minority population swung to Obama big time in 2012 but that was coupled with an equally large swing of its senior citizens to Romney. Contrast that to 2000 when Gore did well with Seniors while Bush picked up some Hispanic support.

At this point, I'm not ready to say which way Florida will lean in the future. But if it does start to lean left, the Republicans will have to work really hard to win the Midwest. Ohio and Wisconsin's electoral votes would make up for the loss of Florida.

[old timey villain]

The problem is how do Republicans win Pennsylvania and the midwest?

I used to think that it was simply an issue of race. If Republicans can do so well with working class whites in the south, then why not a state like Ohio or Wisconsin or Minnesota as well? But now I think it's also a question of values. The Republicans have tailored their message to resonate exceptionally well with white southerners, who are largely religious, conservative, traditional and very conscious of race. It turns out that platform actually doesn't mesh that well with midwestern values. The midwest isn't as cosmopolitan or liberal as NY, SF or LA but it's much less conservative than the south.

So the GOP will probably have to tone back the rhetoric on social issues if it really wants to win up there.