There is also the possibility Murkowski leaves the Republican party depending on how she is treated by them if she wins in November.
Very true.
Also, I'm not sure what morgan's map looks like but under certain circumstances there is actually opportunity for a semi-moderate GOP group to reform. You've already got Collins, Snowe, Brown. If Kirk and Ayotte are elected that's two more potential moderates. If Murkowski wins she might be a wild card vote. Then there are the random rogue votes like Hatch, Grahm, Lugar, and Hutchinson. If Democrats pick the right issues they might actually be able to get things done especially if the more reasonable members of the GOP feel like they're being attacked by their incoming crazy teabagger colleagues too much.
why would you put Ayotte in the same category? she seems like a pretty standard conservative.