Democratic Grand Finale Tuesday results thread (1st polls close @8pm ET)

[Eraserhead]

It's really a crime that we're not going to get a proper exit poll in California tonight.

[Eraserhead]

Uh... you guys do realize that Clinton didn't drop out on the last day of the primaries in 2008 either right? (Technically this isn't even the last day of the primaries.)

Do you think he's meeting with Obama on Thursday just to flip him the bird or something? Get a grip, folks. It takes a few days to sort these things out sometimes.

[Eraserhead]

Now that the final vote tally has come in, I have finished my thoughts about and posted them to the blog.

Big night for Clinton. Bernie came up short of expectations and now it is off to a general election between Clinton and Trump.

http://www.yourelection.net/2016/06/super-tueday-primary-finale/

I'm pretty sure there are still a lot of votes to count.

[Eraserhead]

Seems like there is about 0 chance of Sanders significantly closing the gap with Clinton.

I think you're definitely jumping the gun a little, there's still so much to count.

[Eraserhead]

Seems like there is about 0 chance of Sanders significantly closing the gap with Clinton.

I think you're definitely jumping the gun a little, there's still so much to count.

Some people on this forum seem to have a bit of an obsession with vote by mail counting that doesn't change much of anything. I'm rather glad most states haven't moved to the system.

Well yeah, we're a forum of political geeks, of course some of us are interested in what the final margin in these races turn out to be.

Plus, corny as it may sound, every vote deserves to be counted.

[Eraserhead]

Clinton's lead is down to 10.9%

Clinton 55.0%
Sanders 44.1%

[Eraserhead]

Margin is down to 10.7%.

Clinton 54.9%
Sanders 44.2%

[Eraserhead]

Margin is down to 10.7%.

Clinton 54.9%
Sanders 44.2%

It's going to change a lot over the coming days Eraserhead, you don't have to update us over every update.

I don't have to but I choose to.

[Eraserhead]

Margin is down to 10.7%.

Clinton 54.9%
Sanders 44.2%

It's going to change a lot over the coming days Eraserhead, you don't have to update us over every update.

I don't have to but I choose to.

Erasehead might choose not to, but I will regardless, since unfortunately California has an even more complex and delayed Vote-by-Mail process than most other Western States...

Telling my age, but first Pres election that I could vote in was '92, and although I always voted from ever primary and GE, AND, am tracking results daily, even on my wedding anniversary.

Have been working in the private sector for the past 20 years, and will continue to follow and post updates, since after not only a Poly-Sci under grad degree, plus a Masters, and not to be rude, but if you don't appreciate updates you don't need to view them.....

Beautifully stated!

[Eraserhead]

Lots of sore winners in this thread, I see.

[Eraserhead]

So when about 2 million ballots were left, she was ahead by 11.1%. Now that about 1.3 million ballots are left, she's ahead by 10.5%. If you make the assumption things continue in that pattern, she'd win by about 9.3%. However, provisionals throw a wrench in that, since a) we have no clue how many will be deemed invalid b) they should be much more Bernie friendly than the mail ins. There are about 600k mail ins left and 700k provisionals. This could be a squeaker to see whether or not she beats her 2008 margin (+8.31%). Being within single digits looks close to certain at this point.

Yeah, I'm most interested in seeing whether he does better than Obama or not at this point. I wouldn't bet on it but it's a possibility.

[Eraserhead]

Lots of sore winners in this thread, I see.

Jfern seems to bring out the worst in a lot of users here it seems.

Understandable but nothing he did in these last few pages really warranted that response. I definitely find it fascinating that Bernie managed to win any kind of district with those demographics.

[Eraserhead]

Current margin in Montana is 7.37%:

Sanders 51.54%
Clinton 44.17%
No Preference 4.29%

[Eraserhead]

Great analysis, Oregon Progessive.

[Eraserhead]

The countdown to Bernie performing better than Obama '08 is on (in terms of the margin - he already has more votes than him).

[Eraserhead]

The countdown to Bernie performing better than Obama '08 is on (in terms of the margin - he already has more votes than him).

Of course the difference is that Obama barely campaigned in California in 2008 while Sanders became almost a permanent resident for a month.

That's a bit of an exaggeration. Plus, the '08 race was in the heat of that primary while this one happened after the race was basically over with.

[Eraserhead]

The countdown to Bernie performing better than Obama '08 is on (in terms of the margin - he already has more votes than him).

Of course the difference is that Obama barely campaigned in California in 2008 while Sanders became almost a permanent resident for a month.

That's a bit of an exaggeration. Plus, the '08 race was in the heat of that primary while this one happened after the race was basically over with.

Where is the exaggeration? Obama held 2 events in California in 2008 while Sanders literally didn't set foot out of the state the month before the primary. I remember Ed Kilgore jokingly saying that a casual observer might have thought he was running for governor.

As for the primary being over, go tell that to the rabid Sanders supporters or the media who turned the contest into Hillary's Alamo breathlessly reporting all those polls that showed a 2 point race.

Except that's a false statement.

[Eraserhead]

If he spent a decent amount of time in New Mexico or eastern South Dakota, he probably could've won those states.

Quite possibly. He did campaign a bit in both of them though.

Other than in Michigan, Bernie just never seemed to have luck on his side in the close ones.

[Eraserhead]

The countdown to Bernie performing better than Obama '08 is on (in terms of the margin - he already has more votes than him).

Of course the difference is that Obama barely campaigned in California in 2008 while Sanders became almost a permanent resident for a month.

That's a bit of an exaggeration. Plus, the '08 race was in the heat of that primary while this one happened after the race was basically over with.

Where is the exaggeration? Obama held 2 events in California in 2008 while Sanders literally didn't set foot out of the state the month before the primary. I remember Ed Kilgore jokingly saying that a casual observer might have thought he was running for governor.

As for the primary being over, go tell that to the rabid Sanders supporters or the media who turned the contest into Hillary's Alamo breathlessly reporting all those polls that showed a 2 point race.

Except that's a false statement.

What, did he went to Vermont for fresh clothes?

He literally campaigned in several other states during the course of that month as well but I'm sure you already know that.

[Eraserhead]

If he spent a decent amount of time in New Mexico or eastern South Dakota, he probably could've won those states.

Quite possibly. He did campaign a bit in both of them though.

Other than in Michigan, Bernie just never seemed to have luck on his side in the close ones.

SD, NM, IA, MO, MA

Those were all within about 3% and were all Hillary wins.

Don't forget IL and KY!

[Eraserhead]

I'll predict a final margin of 6.9%.

[Eraserhead]

At the risk of being diagnosed as "autistic" by a fellow Red avatar who apparently enjoys doing a "Seagull" (Check out Urban Dictionary as needed) here is where the remaining California outstanding votes exist.

[Eraserhead]

Well, it's good to see Sanders winning Montana by more than Clintion won California at least. lol.

I have note that the usually decent SUSA bombed out pretty badly here, they had the race at Clinton +18 in their final poll.

[Eraserhead]

So that's definitely everything?