Official Michigan Megathread

[dmmidmi]

More than the Snyder surge, I'm interested to see if Santa Claus will get re-elected.

[dmmidmi]

Schauer has been running a very populist campaign. Recently, this has been one of his big talking points: http://www.mlive.com/news/detroit/index.ssf/2013/11/gov_rick_snyders_office_raisin.html

So far, I don't feel like it has gained much traction, or resonated with voters.

[dmmidmi]

Is anyone else surprised about Levin's recent vote against the nuclear option? Pryor and Manchin you'd expect, but not only is Levin from a blue state, he's also retiring and thus has nothing at stake. Is he more conservative than people seemed to think?

Michigan is not a "blue state."  It's a swing state by any standard.  Remember that Gore only took it by 5 points in 2000 and Kerry only took it by 3 points in 2004.  Obama won solidly here in 2008 and 2012, but those were in strong Dem years nationally.

Over the past 20 years, Michigan has been between 3 and 5% more Democratic than the country as a whole. This means that, in order for the state to actually "swing," the GOP would have to win by Bush 41 (a "strong" GOP year nationally, by your own standard) or Obama-sized margin.

[dmmidmi]

Well, it looks like Santa Claus has a real good chance of keeping his job: http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20131203/POLITICS03/312030066/Benson-will-not-run-Congress?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|FRONTPAGE

Benson would've easily been the strongest candidate to run in that district in a long time. I'm guessing there are simply too many Republicans in MI-11 for any Democrat to win there.

[dmmidmi]

http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2013/12/msu_survey_a_year_out_rick_sny.html#incart_river_default

This is an all-around terrible poll (decimals, polling people from August-October and releasing the results in December), but Michigan State University found that The Nerd's approvals are still in the dumps.

Take it for what it's worth, which probably isn't much.

[dmmidmi]

And PPP has Snyder in the lead by 4. Any reaction to that?

I expected him to be leading by more. Seriously.

[dmmidmi]

If Snyder were to lose in 2014, would he be allowed to seek the governorship again in 2018 and 2022 ?

Their term limits law is very STRICT and too tough for former governors to reclaim the office.

Pretty odd that John Engler was exempt from the rule and won 3 terms (1990, 1994, 1998).

He'd be allowed to, but I seriously doubt he'd even come close to winning. It's not typical for a Michigan Governor to come back and reclaim the Governorship/another office. Jim Blanchard threw his hat in the ring in the 2002 Democratic Gubernatorial primaries, and got steamrolled by Jenny Granholm. Soapy Williams lost the 1966 Senate race. And so on, and so forth.

Engler was exempt from the rule, because he was in office when the rule was established. And his opponent in '98 was Geoffrey Fieger.

[dmmidmi]

This could be the break Democrats need to win the Governor's race and pick up seats in the legislature

http://www.freep.com/article/20131211/NEWS06/312110143/Michigan-abortion-rider-insurance

LANSING — A controversial initiative requiring women to buy additional insurance if they want abortion coverage in their health insurance plans passed the Legislature Wednesday afternoon and will take effect 90 days after lawmakers adjourn for the year.

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Snyder isn't in favor of this bill, but that won't matter if Democrats can fire up their base over this bill and tie it to the Republican Party overall.

I have to disagree. I think it does matter. When paired with his push for expanding Medicaid and setting up the exchange, this will help Snyder gain support from those who identify as independents (people who voted for Obama in 2008, but voted for Snyder in 2010). The Democratic base in Michigan is only about 38-40% of the electorate.

[dmmidmi]

This could be the break Democrats need to win the Governor's race and pick up seats in the legislature

http://www.freep.com/article/20131211/NEWS06/312110143/Michigan-abortion-rider-insurance

LANSING — A controversial initiative requiring women to buy additional insurance if they want abortion coverage in their health insurance plans passed the Legislature Wednesday afternoon and will take effect 90 days after lawmakers adjourn for the year.

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Snyder isn't in favor of this bill, but that won't matter if Democrats can fire up their base over this bill and tie it to the Republican Party overall.

I have to disagree. I think it does matter. When paired with his push for expanding Medicaid and setting up the exchange, this will help Snyder gain support from those who identify as independents (people who voted for Obama in 2008, but voted for Snyder in 2010). The Democratic base in Michigan is only about 38-40% of the electorate.

Democrats can say of the expansion of Medicaid -- too little and too late. They would have done the same thing, but without selling out women and workers.  Expansion of Medicaid  may keep Snyder from going down to as severe a defeat as looms for Scott in Florida or Corbett in Pennsylvania.

In 2010 the Democratic base voted for Democrats and others generally stayed home of accepted the GOP promises at face value. Except in ultra-safe districts one cannot win elections simply by bringing out the base. Electoral success in most places depends upon bringing out more than the base -- swing voters.

The Republican Party is essentially a coalition between plutocratic elites who demand all of the bounty of a prosperous society not necessary for an animal existence of people other than themselves and religious fundamentalists who are content with suffering in This World in return for Pie-in-the-Sky-When-You-Die. So suppose that you are a working-class or middle-class Roman Catholic who rejects the superstitions of Protestant fundamentalists and is closer to Pope Francis on economics than to Gatsby-like plutocrats on economics. What does the Hard Right have to offer but privation?

The recent PPP poll shows that Republicans have not gerrymandered their way into a solid majority in the State legislature. It's hard to win with this ten and a half months before the general election:

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_MI_121113.pdf


State legislatures can do much to offend, but little to induce positive miracles.  Republicans would have to do voter suppression on an unimaginable scale to prevent loss of the State legislature or rely upon an economic meltdown as severe at the start as those of 1929-1933  or 2007-2009.
   

The argument that "Democrats would've done the same thing, but better" may be a bit too nuanced for suburban swing voters. They'll see Snyder making the decision they agree with, while appearing to be willing to work across the aisle. That's a far more powerful message than the insistence that Democrats would simply have done a better job of implementing the exchange and Medicaid expansion--one that'll resonate better with voters.

Control of the state House and Senate can definitely change hands in the next one or two election cycles--Republicans hold so many of those seats, that it's hard to envision in one election alone. However, the GOP state legislators are doing a helluva good job of alienating those who put them in office.

[dmmidmi]

Snyder is making efforts to strengthen his brand: http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2013/12/gov_rick_snyder_open_to_talks.html

He's open to talking about things like the Elliott-Larsen Civil Rights Act, but won't lead the discussion. Meaning, he may be in support of it if it's brought up by the Legislature (which won't happen).

[dmmidmi]

Looks like Snyder's getting a primary opponent: http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/01/michigan_political_points_birt.html#incart_river_default

He was a birther, registered as a Democrat, but he "switched his party affiliation this week with the Secretary of State, saying his platform is too conservative for the Democratic ticket."

You think?

[dmmidmi]

It's looking like the Snyder campaign will kick off, once again, on Super Bowl Sunday: http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/01/michigan_political_points_whit.html#incart_river_default

The one-minute ad buy will cost just over $660,000, with the Metro Detroit market making up $400,000 of the total cost.

I have to wonder why Mark Schauer isn't planning on a huge ad buy on the same day (at least, it's not clear if he is or isn't).

[dmmidmi]

It's looking like the Snyder campaign will kick off, once again, on Super Bowl Sunday: http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/01/michigan_political_points_whit.html#incart_river_default

The one-minute ad buy will cost just over $660,000, with the Metro Detroit market making up $400,000 of the total cost.

I have to wonder why Mark Schauer isn't planning on a huge ad buy on the same day (at least, it's not clear if he is or isn't).

Rick Snyder has more money, and more out-of-state money behind him. Mark Schauer must rely upon retail politics.

The last time retail politics really worked in Michigan was when John Engler was elected the first time. Yikes.

[dmmidmi]

In case you missed it: http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/01/democrat_mark_schauer_seeks_pu.html

The comments section on mLive is hilarious.

[dmmidmi]

UAW asked Wittmer to reconsider, she said no.

I heard about this last night. This is embarrassing. Whitmer is probably waiting for 2018 to roll around.

[dmmidmi]

Sabato moves guv to Lean R from Tossup.

Totally agree. Snyder has a clear advantage right now.

State of the State is tonight: http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2014/01/where_to_catch_gov_rick_snyder.html#incart_river_default

At one point, the Free Press mentioned that he might bring up reforming Michigan's no-fault auto insurance (http://www.freep.com/article/20140113/NEWS06/301130010/michigan-rick-snyder-state). There have been efforts to repeal no-fault in the past (including once at the ballot box), and they've all failed. I'm not sure why he would try to "reform" something that's fairly popular in an election year.

[dmmidmi]

Last night, for the first time, I saw an anti-Peters TV ad: http://youtu.be/IsLdhwwSwrQ

This should ramp up after Super Bowl Sunday.

[dmmidmi]

Here's the latest Senate race fundraising report: http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2014/01/democratic_senate_gary_peters.html

[dmmidmi]

DGA to launch ad campaign against Snyder.

If you look at Schauer's Facebook page, he repeatedly beats the education/schools drum. We'll have to see whether or not this resonates with voters.

Not to sound like a concern troll, but I'm starting to become disappointed with Schauer. It just feels like he is letting a good oppurtunity slip away.

I've gotta be honest--I am, too. As of today, I'm really worried that Schauer will try to win on the cheap (like Bernero did). When your opponent is a millionaire who can (and will) easily raise an obscene amount of money, this may not be the best strategy.

[dmmidmi]

Snyder has officially declared his intention to run for re-election: http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/01/its_official_michigan_gov_rick.html

[dmmidmi]

Snyder had an ad during the Super Bowl. If you want to check it out, it's here: http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/02/snyder_super_bowl_michigan.html

I was a little confused about the snorkeling, too.

[dmmidmi]

When Rick Snyder announced his re-election plans, he decided what to do with part of the $971 million surplus that Michigan apparently has: http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/02/michigan_budget_gov_rick_snyde.html

The average refund should be about $80. Seriously.

In 2011, eligibility for the homestead credit was decreased from $82,650 in total household income to $50,000 in total household resources.

How many votes will those $80 checks buy?

[dmmidmi]

http://blogs.detroitnews.com/politics/2014/02/06/darren-littell-gov-snyders-education-record-sterling/

An interesting article about Schauer and the Dems' attacks on Gov. Snyder over education.

The truth is a little more complicated than that. Per pupil funding is down, but total spending is up: http://www.house.mi.gov/hfa/PDF/SchoolAid/Basics_of_the_FoundationAllowance_FY14_Sept2013.pdf

[dmmidmi]

http://www.freep.com/article/20140212/NEWS06/302120096/tax-relief-michigan-republicans-democrats-snyder-income-homestead-property

I'm pretty sure I know how Snyder could boost his poll numbers: FIX THE ROADS!

[dmmidmi]

Even though Snyder criticized Dave Agema's "discriminatory" language against homosexuals the other week, he is asking the Supreme Court to uphold Michigan's same-sex employee benefit ban for public employees: http://www.mlive.com/lansing-news/index.ssf/2014/02/gov_rick_snyder_asks_federal_j.html#incart_most-comments

He's trying to have it both ways. Let's see if this works.