Was Trump really on track to win reelection before Covid?
President Johnson:
This seems to be a narrative that's been around lately. Was Trump really on track to win reelection before Covid? I think he may have been more competitive than widely assumed, but "on track" seems quite far fetched. Remember that he was one of the least popular presidents in modern history and never had positive approval ratings on average.
I do admit, however, that my general assumption through his entire presidency was probably a false assumption and wishful thinking. I long thought 2016 was a fluke and the "perfect storm" after the Comey letter and that Clinton would have won in nine out of ten times. And that quickly after Trump took over people realized his election was a huge error and he was absolutely not up to the job. And therefore any halfway competent challenger would easily take him out in 2020. Nonetheless, I remember that lots of journalists and users on this forum also thought Trump was more likely to lose reelection between mid-2017 and early 2020.
OSR stands with Israel:
Yes for 3 reasons
1. 2018 wasn’t that bad of a midterm defeat for the GOP compared to 2006 for them and 2010/14 for the Dems . The democrats sure won but if you did a House Popular Vote Map , the map was basically the 2016 map + WI/MI/PA/AZ/IA for them which still put them under 300 EV . So it’s not hard to imagine once you take the midterm boost away , Trump still wins the EC.
2. The democratic primary was a complete clown car in 2019-early parts of 2020 with the debates being completely chaotic and democrats pandering further and further left . In a non Covid world , those primary promises Biden made would have harmed him far more sorta like it did to Romney in 2012 .
3. The first impeachment did backfire on the democrats as Trump’s approvals went up after that
4. Polls consistently shows that 60-70% of Americans thought the economy was in really good shape and those types of numbers absolutely do help incumbents out and Biden isn’t really that great of a candidate to overcome them
Progressive Pessimist:
Probably. Democrats weren't really able to have a meaningful message until Trump failed at the biggest test of his term.
pbrower2a:
Republicans, and espeially Trump supporters, got inoculated for COVID-19 at lower rates and were less likely to survive to vote... or to have their votes counted. The GOP made much of disqualifying the votes of deceased voters who had cast an absentee ballot... and this time a disproportionate number of the absentee votes deleted due to the death of a voter were those of Trump.
The 2020 election was a nail-biter, but without the margin of inoculations, Trump might have won Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin... and still be President. Incumbent Presidents usually get re-elected if they choose to run for re-election. That includes mediocre-to-awful Presidents. Exceptions:
Hoover (faulted for the Great Depression)
Ford (incompetent campaigner)
Carter (bad luck anda changing political culture)
the elder Bush (third term of a tired agenda)
Trump (thoroughly-awful President... but almost got re-elected!)
Sumner 1868:
No, it was pretty clear in early 2020 a recession was near. COVID just created a more complicated situation in it's place instead.
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