VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

What do you think is the biggest reason Northam hasn't been able to use trump's dreadful VA approval ratings to grow a bigger lead?

Who are the gillespie/clinton voters?

I don't know how many G/C voters there will be.  But there were probably plenty of Republicans who sat out the Presidential race or voted for a third party (Johnson got 3% and McMullin 1.4%) that have no problem voting for Gillespie.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Final Wason Center (CNU) tracking poll:

Northam 51
Gillespie 45
Hyra 2

http://wasoncenter.cnu.edu/northam-holds-6-point-lead-over-gillespie-51-45-as-independents-and-moderates-break-for-democrat/

The previous poll (Oct 27) was 50-43 Northam.

[GeorgiaModerate]

New Q poll

Northam 51
Gillespie 42
Hyra 3

Their previous poll was 53-36 Northam.

[GeorgiaModerate]

We haven't gotten a final poll from The Polling Company yet, though.

Same with Monmouth.

Don’t forget Trafalgar and Optimus!

I've also been wondering if Hampton will have a final poll.

[GeorgiaModerate]

New Fox poll

LV:

Northam 48 (-1)
Gillespie 43 (+1)
Hyra 2

RV:

Northam 45 (nc)
Gillespie 41 (-1)
Hyra 3

[GeorgiaModerate]

Monmouth

Northam 47 (nc)
Gillespie 45 (-3)
Hyra 3

[GeorgiaModerate]

So something we all need to keep in mind is that....
In 2016 for 10 days trump was gaining in polls of course the comey letter helped but the last 4 days Hillary recovered a bit going from a 65% chance of winning to 72% chance of winning on 538.

So while I’m extremely nervous about the race I’m still optimistic.

I get what you're saying, but this is a very different situation than the Presidential election because there's no Electoral College to complicate things.  In November, the polls did tighten in the closing days, but remember that the final national polling average was quite close to the actual popular vote margin.  Clinton just didn't get enough of that vote in the right states. 

Here, the average is showing Northam with a wider lead than Clinton's final national lead.  Although a Gillespie win is certainly still in the realm of possibility, I'd much rather be in Northam's position.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Interesting trivia:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Before today, I felt like the race was becoming a pure tossup, but I think Northam has gotten back on track some. His lead appears to be stabilizing, but a Gillespie win isn't out of the question.

I've been thinking that there is reason to believe that the polls are underestimating Northam. As we learned from the polls last year, enthusiasm is difficult to accurately poll, and the enthusiasm right now seems to be behind Northam more than Gillespie.

This seems plausible:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Worth remembering tomorrow night:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

No matter how many times we talk about the way Virginia reports the results, it's not going to stop the hand wringing lol. I look forward to all the doom prophecies when Gillespie is ahead with 1% in.

Overreaction on Atlas is probably the safest bet you could place in this (or any) election.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Northam by 2 is a pretty good result for Republicans - it shows that hard-on-immigration campaigns energize the GOP base but won't significantly alienate the Dem base to the point that it negates the edge.

2013 was a much better year for Republicans than it was now. What a hypothetical Dem operative wants to see is Northam up by like 9. That'd be somewhere near the national margin the Dems need to be playing with in order to have a home run midterm like some metric indicate.

Gillespie improving on Cuccinelli's margin in the shift in landscape would be nothing less than miraculous. This election (and how exactly Guadagno falls to Murphy) should give folks in the RNC a good idea whether to run on a national anti-sanctuary message in 2018.

Maybe the trick for Paul Ryan is to move a bit to the right on cultural issues.

You sound like a democrat after Ossoff lost.

Not really. Ossoff losing was bad for the Dems for the same reasons a 2 point Northam win or 10 point Murphy win would be bad for the Dems: a lack of ability to improve on Hillary's numbers in an election they lost overall, despite muh wave and the muh Hillary horrible candidate coping mechanism.

I think your overthinking it. Hillary was a good fit for NJ and Tim Kaine helped her margin in VA. Phil Murphy has the charisma of a card board box and the last 3 VA governors races have been competitive. Tomorrow nights performance doesn't have to mean much about whether there will or wont be a wave next year.

Harry Enten of 538 has pointed out several times that off-year gubernatorial elections aren't particularly predictive of subsequent Congressional results.  Writing recently about Virginia specifically:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Same for Arlington:

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(Fixed the tags on the quote.)  Thanks for posting these. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

It would be good to get some reports from outside NoVA as well.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It would be good to get some reports from outside NoVA as well.

It would, but I'm only able to post what I see!

When has that ever been an impediment to posting here?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I have real data from Arlington county. Gigantic turnout, with precincts having 200-300 more votes than the "high target" Arlington democrats set. Probably at least 10% higher than 2013 and 2014.

Quite simply, "No!"

Whether a higher pace in turnout is the result of higher turnout, or, merely the cannibalization of the later afternoon vote won't be known until later.

This happened to some degree in DeKalb county in the GA-06 special election.  Early turnout was good, but failed to meet expectations later in the day.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If Gillespie loses the race, I'm looking forward to some post-Ossoff-like handwringing from Republicans who got their hopes up.

And, I seem to remember an election 52 weeks ago today in which the Democratic candidate had had a bit of bad news which lead to the Republican candidate surging in the polls. Around the final weekend, the polls suggested that the Democratic candidate had stabilized her position with a small, but, significant and persistent lead. The Republican candidate won.

If Gillespie wins tomorrow, some folks are going to be howling at the moon a night early.

Bob, Virginia doesn't have an Electoral College....

The RCP polling average for Virginia, and Michigan was what again???

Uh, 5% Hillary lol plz wipe your butt

Is he insinuating Hillary underperformed in VA because she most certainly did not.

Given Tim Kaine was on the ticket, and, Trump pulled out of Virginia while Romney did not, Hillary Clinton underperformed in Virginia badly.

The implication in your post was that she underperformed the polling average in Virginia.  She did not, as others have pointed out.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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I implore the voters in Fairfax to stay home instead of braving the weather, so that Gillespie can win.

Voting for Republicans has been rescheduled for tomorrow.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This should sum it up.

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[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

turnout may be up in fairfax county but i've saw about 5 times more gillepsie signs than northam signs there. turnout being up is actually huge for gillepsie.

same with charloettesville. the silent majority doesn't want their confederate statues (history) taken down by radical leftists.

But it's ok if they're taken down by others?

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

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