🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[DavidB.]

Some interesting maps from Twitter user @almodozo:

The election winners in all municipalities with a standardized average income (2022) at least 15% higher above the national average. The five GL-PvdA ones are De Bilt, Bunnik, Zeist and Utrechtse Heuvelrug, leafy and well-off suburbs and exurbs of Utrecht, as well as Mook en Middelaar, which has the same characteristics and is situated next to Nijmegen. In all 8 municipalities in which the average income was higher than a whopping 33%, the VVD won.



The PVV mostly won municipalities with a standardized average income (2022) at least 10% below the national average. This includes two extremes: very rural Northern Frisia, Northern Groningen and Eastern Groningen on the one hand and very urban Rotterdam on the other hand. The Parkstad Limburg urban area (Heerlen, Kerkrade, Landgraaf) and other bigger, working-class places in the periphery like Den Helder, Vlissingen and Emmen are also part of this select group of municipalities. The red GL-PvdA ones fall in three categories: smaller university towns in which students make up a large part of the population (Delft, Wageningen), bigger cities with a big student population (Nijmegen, Groningen) and a standout one: Leeuwarden, which doesn't have a big student population but does have a red tradition. The yellow NSC one is Pieter Omtzigt's hometown of Enschede, the biggest urban center in the Twente urban area.



A scatterplot shows correlation between lower incomes and a higher PVV vote; the exception being university towns. The colors indicate region in the country.

https://twitter.com/almodozo/status/1735366458564096061?s=20

Similar scatterplots in the same thread show an almost perfect correlation between income and VVD vote and no correlation whatsoever between income and GL-PvdA vote. However, GL-PvdA gains vis-a-vis 2021 mostly came from uni towns and richer, 'high-income + high cultural capital' municipalities (like the aforementioned Utrecht suburbs). Important to note these are stats on the level of the municipality, so don't commit the ecological fallacy - the characteristics of the municipalities don't have to apply to the actual voters of certain parties at all. But the stats are interesting for sure.

It's getting to a point where Wilders might decide for a new election, or force the others to give concessions to avoid one.

On the new numbers he can drop one of VVD, NSC, BBB from his coalition.

On current numbers in parliament he can already drop BBB. On the new polling numbers he cannot drop VVD or NSC. In terms of majorities, the math is unchanged. BBB is the glue between the parties and doesn't have to be dropped. It would get more interesting if either VVD or NSC could be dropped but we're not close to approaching that point (yet).

Polls like these obviously do increase pressure on NSC and (particularly) VVD to form a coalition with the PVV though. Wilders can lean back and let NSC and VVD make their respective turn.

I tend to be very favorable towards drug legalization and my sympathy for D66 comes mostly from this issue, even if they seem terrible on foreign affairs (and free speech, at least according to Wilders?). A large part of my Hollandophilia comes from noticing that it's a country where parties on different extremes, like D66 and PVV, seem unusually good on specific issues and to have virtues I'd like to see imported to my country.

Worth noting that since December 15th, for the first time, legally produced weed has been sold in the Netherlands. This is part of the experiment D66 had managed to include in the 2017 (!) coalition agreement (baby steps...). The weed (not hash) is grown by companies licensed by the government, with the advantage that the ingredients are known to the fullest extent, and is sold in a select number of municipalities.

To me it seems that even to those opposed to drugs this should be a no-brainer, because the previous situation in which 'coffee shops' cannot buy weed but can sell it seems inferior in all regards for about everyone involved except for criminals. But the introduction of the experiment seems to have come at the wrong political moment: a large majority in parliament (including PVV and NSC) is against further drug legalization. However, the experiment is supposed to last 4 years, so it probably won't be this parliament deciding on the final outcome. And while this parliament probably won't speed things up, I also don't expect them to end the experiment prematurely.

Also worth noting that it is a massive political/PR failure by D66 that their Health Minister Ernst Kuipers didn't manage to get this done a month earlier, right before the election.

[DavidB.]

Peil.nl has the PVV at 48 and the VVD at 13:

[Flyersfan232]

how are talks going???

[DavidB.]

No news, no leaks yet (usually a good sign) and also no indication the parties won't be able to make a deal, although it will be difficult - part of the NSC parliamentary group is said to be very critical. Christmas recess now, so parties are taking a break from the talks now.

[DavidB.]

Sigrid Kaag (D66) resigns as demissionary Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister to become the Special UN Humanitarian and Reconstruction Coordinator for Gaza. Rob Jetten, demissionary Minister for Climate and Energy and Kaag's successor as D66 leader, will also succeed her as demissionary Deputy Prime Minister and "formally" succeed her as Finance Minister, while Deputy Finance Minister Marnix van Rij (CDA) will do the actual job until a new government is formed.

[Pericles]

No news, no leaks yet (usually a good sign) and also no indication the parties won't be able to make a deal, although it will be difficult - part of the NSC parliamentary group is said to be very critical. Christmas recess now, so parties are taking a break from the talks now.

Any risk of defections from them in case of a deal that would shrink the government's majority? Is that a thing in Dutch politics?

[DavidB.]

No news, no leaks yet (usually a good sign) and also no indication the parties won't be able to make a deal, although it will be difficult - part of the NSC parliamentary group is said to be very critical. Christmas recess now, so parties are taking a break from the talks now.

Any risk of defections from them in case of a deal that would shrink the government's majority? Is that a thing in Dutch politics?

We can't rule it out at all, but I think Omtzigt will try to prevent this at every step in the process especially because he himself has doubts that are entirely in line with those of the critics. In any case, with BBB in the coalition, the coalition would have 88 seats, so 13 NSC MPs would have to go to make the government lose its majority. Omtzigt would probably pull the plug entirely before this would happen.

[Pericles]

No news, no leaks yet (usually a good sign) and also no indication the parties won't be able to make a deal, although it will be difficult - part of the NSC parliamentary group is said to be very critical. Christmas recess now, so parties are taking a break from the talks now.

Any risk of defections from them in case of a deal that would shrink the government's majority? Is that a thing in Dutch politics?

We can't rule it out at all, but I think Omtzigt will try to prevent this at every step in the process especially because he himself has doubts that are entirely in line with those of the critics. In any case, with BBB in the coalition, the coalition would have 88 seats, so 13 NSC MPs would have to go to make the government lose its majority. Omtzigt would probably pull the plug entirely before this would happen.

What alternative has been suggested by this NSC faction? Another election sounds like it would be their preference but the current polls obviously make that a big risk.

[DavidB.]

No news, no leaks yet (usually a good sign) and also no indication the parties won't be able to make a deal, although it will be difficult - part of the NSC parliamentary group is said to be very critical. Christmas recess now, so parties are taking a break from the talks now.

Any risk of defections from them in case of a deal that would shrink the government's majority? Is that a thing in Dutch politics?

We can't rule it out at all, but I think Omtzigt will try to prevent this at every step in the process especially because he himself has doubts that are entirely in line with those of the critics. In any case, with BBB in the coalition, the coalition would have 88 seats, so 13 NSC MPs would have to go to make the government lose its majority. Omtzigt would probably pull the plug entirely before this would happen.

What alternative has been suggested by this NSC faction? Another election sounds like it would be their preference but the current polls obviously make that a big risk.

I don't think they have any alternative. I don't think Omtzigt has any either, and I don't think the "critics" form some sort of faction within NSC already either, they're handpicked by Omtzigt and probably still very loyal to him.

Obviously, the risk for Omtzigt is that his central promise of a 'new culture of governance' would be widely viewed as 'broken' by entering a coalition with the PVV - be sure that the left-wing oriented media will spread this idea from day 1 - in the exact same way that Kaag's central promise of 'new moral leadership' was viewed as broken after entering a coalition with Rutte again. At the same time, the mood in the country is very much one of 'now finally start getting things done' and 'Wilders won, let's give him a chance'. And many NSC voters - a little older, more practically educated, more located in the periphery - aren't all that far away from Wilders' ideas on an issue such as immigration. NSC look like they're damned if they do and damned if they don't - this situation is much easier to navigate for the VVD. Much will also depend on Wilders' flexibility, though, and on the job that he ends up getting. And on the results the government will be able to achieve in solving the problems of the victims in the childcare benefit scandal and the Groningen earthquake situation.

[DavidB.]

Party: I&O - Ipsos - Peil

PVV: 28 - 27 - 29
GL-PvdA: 27 - 24 - 28
VVD: 27 - 29 - 26
NSC: 21 - 19 - 19
D66: 9 - 11 - 8
BBB: 5 - 6 - 6
SP: 6 - 5 - 5
PvdD: 5 - 5 - 4
CDA: 4 - 4 - 6
FVD: 4 - 3 - 4
DENK: 3 - 4 - 4
CU: 3 - 4 - 3
Volt: 3 - 4 - 3
SGP: 3 - 3 - 2
JA21: 1 - 1 - 1
BIJ1: 0 - 1 - 1
BVNL:  1 - 0  - 1
50Plus: 0 - 0 - 0

All very close to each other, except for Ipsos on GL/PvdA; they have D66 higher.

Decided to calculate the difference between the final polls on November 21 and the final result. I&O and Peil.nl/De Hond share the first place by both being 24 seats off, followed by Ipsos with 28 seats. All were basically right about almost all parties except for the PVV, which they all underpolled very strongly (although note that this shift could have taken place on election day, meaning the polls were right at the time - I think this is at least partly true, but they may still have underpolled the PVV structurally too).

The only other cases of a polling result too far away from the final result to be explained by the margin of error are Peil 'overpolling' GL-PvdA by 3, I&O 'overpolling' the VVD by 3 and Ipsos 'overpolling' the VVD by 5. The latter has always been a notorious Ipsos house effect, apart from the fact that in previous races, the high estimate for the VVD was often the correct one. This time, their luck ran out. Though note that last-minute VVD -> PVV switchers could very well have caused this effect, meaning the polls were about correct on the day before the election - that's why I put overpolling in quotation marks (but Ipsos were probably still overestimating the VVD). In the case of Peil and GL-PvdA this is more doubtful though - no reason for voters to tactically switch away from GL/PvdA the day before the election.

Difference between final poll and result per pollster:

I&O - Ipsos - Peil

PVV: 9 - 10 - 8
GL-PvdA: 2 - 1 - 3
VVD: 3 - 5 - 2
NSC: 1 - 1 - 1
D66: 0 - 2 - 1
BBB: 2 - 1 - 1
SP: 1 - 0 - 0
PvdD: 2 - 2 - 1
CDA: 1 - 1 - 1
FVD: 1 - 0 - 1
DENK: 0 - 1 - 1
CU: 0 - 1 - 0
Volt: 1 - 2 - 1
SGP: 0 - 0 - 1
JA21: 0 - 0 - 0
BIJ1: 0 - 1 - 1
BVNL: 1 - 0 - 1

Total: 24 - 28 - 24

All in all, this will probably go down in history as "the polls were off" while all three were actually very accurate, there was just a big last-minute switch.

[DavidB.]

Today, Geert Wilders retracted three PVV proposals for laws which had already been introduced a few years ago, but on which no debate in parliament had yet taken place: a ban on the practice of Islam, the introduction of administrative detention, and a ban on political officials holding dual citizenship which would also retract dual citizens' right to vote in the Netherlands. Commentators explain this as a sign of Wilders' "good will" to form a coalition. Obviously, these three proposals were going to go absolutely nowhere anyway.

More news: pollsters Ipsos and I&O are merging and will continue as Ipsos I&O. This means there are only two pollsters left in the Netherlands: Ipsos I&O and Peil.nl/De Hond.

[DavidB.]

This autumn, Ahmed Aboutaleb (PvdA) will resign as mayor of Rotterdam after 15 years. He will not complete his third six-year term.

It is not a surprising decision: while Aboutaleb was often praised internationally (he was elected 'World Mayor 2021') and is still generally well-liked in the city, his support on the city council had been eroding. Three days ago, newspaper AD already published a long-read drawing the conclusion that his time seemed almost up. In addition to having to deal with a coalition (Leefbaar-VVD-D66-DENK) partly skeptical or hostile to him, a young, new generation of council members was unhappy with his inflexible style of governing and his rough style of debating - more characterized by taking than by giving. Recently, Aboutaleb lost a policy battle when he tried to prevent opening hours of bars and restaurants from being extended, and he received severe criticism for personally blocking the Israeli flag from being hoisted after October 7 while the city regularly does so when other countries are affected by calamities. Leefbaar attacked him in the press, which, according to AD, had hurt Aboutaleb, who had hoped to have more credits after such a long time as mayor. At the same time, Aboutaleb continues to be lauded as a great communicator and someone who can build bridges in times of crisis, such as after the mass shooting at September 28 in and around the Erasmus University Medical Center. According to AD, Aboutaleb considered jumping into the race for the GL-PvdA leadership when the government collapsed in July, but the parties had already decided on Frans Timmermans, as Aboutaleb wouldn't have a sufficiently green and left-wing profile.

Meanwhile, PVV, VVD, NSC and BBB will be negotiating in a mansion in Hilversum in which the previous three formations also took place. All financial specialists will also be part of the negotiations and it has been confirmed that the parties will not just talk about 'upholding the rule of law', but also about other subjects: nitrogen, climate, immigration, 'security of existence', healthcare, housing, good governance, international security, and public finances. This means the formation truly seems to be kicking off despite NSC clearly having cold feet. There are still no leaks yet, which indicates a very cautious type of harmony. To be continued...

[DavidB.]

The job carousel in the demissionary government continues. Economist and former MP Steven van Weyenberg (D66) was appointed the new demissionary Minister of Finance - so not party leader Jetten, after all. Van Weyenberg had been appointed demissionary Deputy Minister for Media and Culture only one month ago after Gunay Uslu (D66) left, but will now vacate that position again.

Meanwhile, following his former cabinet colleagues Wopke Hoekstra (CDA), Sigrid Kaag (D66) and the aforementioned Gunay Uslu (D66), demissionary health minister Ernst Kuipers (D66) also resigns because he found a new job; some sort of international gig he cannot disclose yet. It is truly getting difficult to keep up.

[Flyersfan232]

This autumn, Ahmed Aboutaleb (PvdA) will resign as mayor of Rotterdam after 15 years. He will not complete his third six-year term.

It is not a surprising decision: while Aboutaleb was often praised internationally (he was elected 'World Mayor 2021') and is still generally well-liked in the city, his support on the city council had been eroding. Three days ago, newspaper AD already published a long-read drawing the conclusion that his time seemed almost up. In addition to having to deal with a coalition (Leefbaar-VVD-D66-DENK) partly skeptical or hostile to him, a young, new generation of council members was unhappy with his inflexible style of governing and his rough style of debating - more characterized by taking than by giving. Recently, Aboutaleb lost a policy battle when he tried to prevent opening hours of bars and restaurants from being extended, and he received severe criticism for personally blocking the Israeli flag from being hoisted after October 7 while the city regularly does so when other countries are affected by calamities. Leefbaar attacked him in the press, which, according to AD, had hurt Aboutaleb, who had hoped to have more credits after such a long time as mayor. At the same time, Aboutaleb continues to be lauded as a great communicator and someone who can build bridges in times of crisis, such as after the mass shooting at September 28 in and around the Erasmus University Medical Center. According to AD, Aboutaleb considered jumping into the race for the GL-PvdA leadership when the government collapsed in July, but the parties had already decided on Frans Timmermans, as Aboutaleb wouldn't have a sufficiently green and left-wing profile.

Meanwhile, PVV, VVD, NSC and BBB will be negotiating in a mansion in Hilversum in which the previous three formations also took place. All financial specialists will also be part of the negotiations and it has been confirmed that the parties will not just talk about 'upholding the rule of law', but also about other subjects: nitrogen, climate, immigration, 'security of existence', healthcare, housing, good governance, international security, and public finances. This means the formation truly seems to be kicking off despite NSC clearly having cold feet. There are still no leaks yet, which indicates a very cautious type of harmony. To be continued...

when should agoverment be formed?

[DavidB.]

There is no deadline. If the formation succeeds, I'd expect it to be finished somewhere from late March to May.

After retracting the anti-Islam draft bills, today Wilders got another roadblock for a coalition out of the way by sending out this very strong statement in support of Ukraine. Him doing this pre-emptively is also important: he is really making it difficult for VVD and NSC to pull the plug on the negotiations.

https://twitter.com/geertwilderspvv/status/1745832719659982877?s=20

[Flyersfan232]

There is no deadline. If the formation succeeds, I'd expect it to be finished somewhere from late March to May.

After retracting the anti-Islam draft bills, today Wilders got another roadblock for a coalition out of the way by sending out this very strong statement in support of Ukraine. Him doing this pre-emptively is also important: he is really making it difficult for VVD and NSC to pull the plug on the negotiations.

https://twitter.com/geertwilderspvv/status/1745832719659982877?s=20

Prime minister wilders is getting more likely everyday it seems

[MaxQue]

There is no deadline. If the formation succeeds, I'd expect it to be finished somewhere from late March to May.

After retracting the anti-Islam draft bills, today Wilders got another roadblock for a coalition out of the way by sending out this very strong statement in support of Ukraine. Him doing this pre-emptively is also important: he is really making it difficult for VVD and NSC to pull the plug on the negotiations.

https://twitter.com/geertwilderspvv/status/1745832719659982877?s=20

Prime minister wilders is getting more likely everyday it seems

Is it, through? I don't think he ever made clear if he wants the office for himself or not.

[DavidB.]

He did confirm he wants to be PM, right after the election and also on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/geertwilderspvv/status/1738642716014076331?s=20
"And yes - many people ask me this - of course I want to become Prime Minister!"

And of course this is the only logical thing to say with 37 seats and a 12-seat gap between the PVV and the runner-up.

Still, I don't think he will be PM. I think it's still more likely he'll trade that position to sell the deal to the other coalition partners. Then, a 'compromise figure' could be picked. But it is equally true that chances of Wilders becoming PM have increased since November 22 - I don't think it is completely impossible anymore. Partly because of Wilders outsmarting the other parties and partly because of the VVD's erratic behavior, which has caused them to fall and the PVV to rise further in the polls, giving Wilders a stronger negotiating hand.

[MaxQue]

It is a great bargaining chip, and one that's worth quite less if you say so publicly.

[DavidB.]

No, it's worth more if you publicly claim to want it. Then you can also extract a price for giving it up. If you don't claim it, the price is lower.

[MaxQue]

No, it's worth more if you publicly claim to want it. Then you can also extract a price for giving it up. If you don't claim it, the price is lower.

I agree, I meant it's worth more if you don't say it's a bargaining chip.

[MayorCarcetti]

He did confirm he wants to be PM, right after the election and also on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/geertwilderspvv/status/1738642716014076331?s=20
"And yes - many people ask me this - of course I want to become Prime Minister!"

And of course this is the only logical thing to say with 37 seats and a 12-seat gap between the PVV and the runner-up.

Still, I don't think he will be PM. I think it's still more likely he'll trade that position to sell the deal to the other coalition partners. Then, a 'compromise figure' could be picked. But it is equally true that chances of Wilders becoming PM have increased since November 22 - I don't think it is completely impossible anymore. Partly because of Wilders outsmarting the other parties and partly because of the VVD's erratic behavior, which has caused them to fall and the PVV to rise further in the polls, giving Wilders a stronger negotiating hand.

Who are the likely contenders to be that compromise candidate?

[DavidB.]

Who are the likely contenders to be that compromise candidate?

Completely unclear yet, but I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being informateur Ronald Plasterk himself. He ticks all the boxes: experience in government, sufficiently establishmentarian to be acceptable for VVD/NSC but also sufficiently in line with PVV/BBB to be acceptable to their voters.

I agree, I meant it's worth more if you don't say it's a bargaining chip.

Yes, exactly.

[windjammer]

He did confirm he wants to be PM, right after the election and also on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/geertwilderspvv/status/1738642716014076331?s=20
"And yes - many people ask me this - of course I want to become Prime Minister!"

And of course this is the only logical thing to say with 37 seats and a 12-seat gap between the PVV and the runner-up.

Still, I don't think he will be PM. I think it's still more likely he'll trade that position to sell the deal to the other coalition partners. Then, a 'compromise figure' could be picked. But it is equally true that chances of Wilders becoming PM have increased since November 22 - I don't think it is completely impossible anymore. Partly because of Wilders outsmarting the other parties and partly because of the VVD's erratic behavior, which has caused them to fall and the PVV to rise further in the polls, giving Wilders a stronger negotiating hand.

Would there be any kind of support to rename the prime minister office as "stadhouder" or "great pensionary"?

I like the old names !

[DavidB.]

Would there be any kind of support to rename the prime minister office as "stadhouder" or "great pensionary"?

I like the old names !

Haha, no, I don't think there is any support for that. Our history is very rich and interesting but it is also that: history.