How likely do you think it is...

[Mr.Phips]

Joe will probably bail in any event, if enough GOP moderates get elected, Kirk, Castle, etc. I think the die is pretty cast on that one.

He might, but I don't see any other Dems doing so. And he'd only split if it's a 50-50 senate.

I am going to go out on a limb, and predict he will bail irrespective, assume he has a large enough moderate GOP Senate cohort to commune with.

Surely you agree, that Joe has a zero future in the Dem party, no?  But with a resurgent GOP in New England, he just might.

Assuming Dems are in the majority either way, he'd have far more influence on committees as a member of the majority who constantly threatens to vote with the minority, than as a member of the minority. Especially if they end up giving Dems a one seat margin on committees.

I don't think Joe is that worried about being in the majority per se, and after November, who has the technical majority in the Senate won't matter much anyway. No, I can't prove any of this. It is just a gut feeling. And surely you agree that Joe has a zero future in the Dem party, no? But with a resurgent New England GOP, he just might.

This "resurgent GOP" meme is going to last for one election cycle and then die as soon as 2012 comes around.

[Mr.Phips]

something I don't get: why do people say Lieberman might 'switch' because he can't win a Dem primary. That already happened. He switch from Dem to Indy because he lost the primary, and he won as an Indy. He's going to stay an indy. He'd have no chance to win in either a Dem or Rep primary after he angered both sides on healthcare. 

Well that depends on what the Republicans do.  If the GOP nominates anyone that is even remotely more serious of a candidate than Schelsinger then it complicates things a bit more for Lieberman as an Indy.  Keep in mind the main reason why Lieberman came out on top in the General is because the GOP basically did not even have a candidate.

What serious candidates do Republicans have in Connecticut?  I doubt Rell wants to return to politics. Maybe Rob Simmons would give it another run?