Perry wins Iowa, Romney wins NH, who wins Nevada?

[Jacobtm]

So let's imagine Perry wins Iowa and Romney wins NH.

The next contest is Nevada. Romney cleaned up there last time, but Perry just got Governor Brian Sandoval's endorsement.

Tied up 1-1, Nevada will be hotly contested.

Does Perry have a shot? Or will Romney have this on lock no matter what? Would a small win by Romney amount to a loss as far as the media is concerned?

[Jacobtm]

The idea of being from a neighboring state helping a candidate is pretty ridiculous in terms of actual Geography.

Romney and Huntsman probably get much bigger boosts from their Mormonism than Perry does from being kinda a little close.

Perry probably gets a bigger boost in South Carolina than he would in Nevada, because of the whole ''southern conservative'' thing he does.

[Jacobtm]

3) Shared regional culture (especially New England, the South, and the Upper Midwest)

Right. I think a good ol' boy from TN would do better in Georgia than would someone like Charlie Christ from Florida. GA and FL are neighbors, but Charlie Christ sure as hell ain't no Georgia Bo...

[Jacobtm]

3) Shared regional culture (especially New England, the South, and the Upper Midwest)

Right. I think a good ol' boy from TN would do better in Georgia than would someone like Charlie Christ from Florida. GA and FL are neighbors, but Charlie Christ sure as hell ain't no Georgia Bo...

To be clear, the candidate him/herself matters. (For that matter, other than the panhandle, Florida's not so Southern.)

Right. The ''neighboring state'' thing is meaningless because of the differences you can get within neighboring states. If the candidate matches the state's style, that's one thing, but simply being from a neighboring state isn't important on its own.

McCain won NH in '08 over Romney, who was a neighbor. NH likes their Mavericks.

[Jacobtm]

Is Nevada not going the same day as South Carolina this time?

Politico is touting it as the 3rd nominating contest, though I don't know that the dates are yet set in stone.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/64375.html