Italy 2013: The official thread

[Franknburger]

Yeah, Iannis is right in terms of political groupings. To simplify, the Italian landscape is split into 4 main poles:
- The "institutional" center-left, led by PD and supported by SEL and a few minor parties. They have been holding easy leads in polls for years now.
- The old Berlusconian right - basically PdL, accompanied by Storace's La Destra and by La Russa's new party "Fratelli d'Italia". It is yet unclear whether the Lega will join them, but Maroni seems to be leaning toward running alone.
- The centrist constellation, which is an utter mess. Here we have UDC, FLI, API (the now defunct "third pole"), plus Montezemolo's new fad, a few other parties with stupid name. All these guys have gotten behind Monti, which will run his own list for the House (on the Senate, there will be a common "Monti list" gathering all these guys).
- M5S, which is basically telling every other party to f**k off.

Ingroia and the "Oranges" stand somewhere between PD and M5S, but probably won't manage to ally with any of them. Anyways, they are mostly irrelevant electorally speaking.

So, to sum it up: There are four major blocks, namely (1) centre-left (PD,Bersani), centre-right (Monti), populist-right (Berlusconi) and populist-left (Grillo), plus a bunch of smaller parties, whereby the allocation of individual smaller parties to any of these blocks is still in flux. Plus, we have ethnic minority parties in South Tyrolia and Val d'Aosta (what about Sardinia, b.t.w.?), which I could assume to be strongly pro-European but otherwise rather conservative, so they most likely end up in Monti's coalition (which may matter on Senate level).

Current polls have the PD bloc at somewhere around 30-35%, and the other three blocks around 15-20% each, of course with a lot of uncertainty as alliance-building is not yet complete. Nevertheless, as it looks now, under the specific Italian voting system the current PD block might have enough of a lead to gain absolute house majority, while things in the Senate could get more complicated.

If I have been correct so far, this leaves me with the following questions:
1. How likely / unlikely is it that the currently leading PD bloc will still be surpassed by any of the other blocks (which one)?
2. Is there anybody out there who would dare to come out with some sort of Senate prediction?
3. Assuming that Bersani wins the House and is not facing a completely obstructionist Senate, how long will his coalition last (it is Italy, after all)?

Happy New Year to everybody!

[minionofmidas]

Sardinia never got the kind of special election law deals that Aoste and Trentino-Südtirol have, and while nationalist parties run there, they don't poll anywhere near enough to matter except in a very close election.
Aoste's election will presumably be between two essentially independent candidates, one affiliated with Monti and the other with the PD, again.
Conservative as the SVP's rhetoric is, they're far too cautious to switch alliances at short notice and a PD government is the least unfriendly to autonomy government they can get. So allied to the PD they remain (I did actually check to verify this). What happens next time around should a Monti centre right bloc establish itself and look like it has staying power, though, is any one's guess.

[Zuza]

Are there still any chances that Berlusconi and Monti will form united right-wing coalition?

[Antonio the Sixth]

1. How likely / unlikely is it that the currently leading PD bloc will still be surpassed by any of the other blocks (which one)?

I think the answer I gave to an unrelated question a couple weeks ago is still valid here:

When it comes to Italy, "anything can happen" is always the best answer. Wouldn't bet on this though.

To be more specific, the PD coalition has been clearly and consistently leading the polls for years now, and in any other country they would be a safe bet at this point. However, keep in mind that in the past couple days we have seen political shifts that would have been unthinkable before. Italy is clearly in a phase of major realignment, and politics in this period is more fluid and unstable than ever. Assigning probabilities isn't easy in this situation.

Who would win if the PD doesn't? The scenario of a PD defeat seems so remote that it's hard to envision who would win in such a case. I guess the most likely remains the PdL coalition, since it slightly leads the other two in recent polls. This would take a lot of good things to go right for Berlusconi to win, though: 1- They have to get the Lega's support, which seems increasingly unlikely 2- They have to hope La Russa's party is effective as a way to channel old AN voters back into the old right-wing coalition 3-Bersani to stumble significantly, which is hard to envisions because most Italians already have low expectancies about him 4-mainly, they have to regain at least some of the countless voters who are sick and tired of Berlusconi and his shenanigans. I highly doubt that "good ol' Berlusconi magic" will be enough for this. People know his tricks by now.

The 3rd most likely would be the Monti/centrist coalition (mainly because a M5S win just looks like an April fool's joke), but this would require even more unlikely events than a PdL victory. The only way this could happen is if the Berlusconian right completely collapses and its voters massively defect to Monti's coalition. This would make sense from an ideological perspective, since Monti is your typical run-of-the-mill neoliberal economist coupled with a very "catholic" austere style which should please Italian rightists. However, you have to remember that what's left of the PdL's is made up of diehard berlusconists who follow him anywhere and believe all of his words. To them, Monti is the Enemy and ideology plays little role in that.

As for M5S winning, that would be... quite something.

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I'm not a specialist of the political situation region-by-region, so I won't dare making a prediction. But let me just say that, if there's no alliance between Lega and PdL, it's very hard to see PD not winning a majority. Of course, you never know.

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If the left coalition ends up being, as it looks now, PD+SEL+some minor outfits, this could actually end up being the most stable left-wing coalition ever (I know, that's not saying much ). PD would likely end up with 43-46% of the seats in the House, and would rely only on SEL to rule (this could prove a bit shaky, but SEL is no PRC and should be able to bow down if necessary to avoid collapse). If the Senate breaks down like the House (which, as I said, is likely if PdL and Lega run separately), I could see Bersani holding on until 2018. Maybe mine is wishful thinking, though.

Are there still any chances that Berlusconi and Monti will form united right-wing coalition?

Considering Berlusconi recently called Monti a traitor who was instated through a coup orchestrated by an evil conspiracy of speculator and foreign leaders... that's a bit hard to see. He even said that if he won he would create a commission of inquiry to try the actors of this evil conspiracy. No kidding, I swear. Welcome in Italy.

[Antonio the Sixth]

BTW, just watched Napolitano's wishes and... wow. This is what a statesman looks like. Politicians of his intellectual quality are a near-extinct species.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Are there still any chances that Berlusconi and Monti will form united right-wing coalition?

No.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

BTW, just watched Napolitano's wishes and... wow. This is what a statesman looks like. Politicians of his intellectual quality are a near-extinct species.

They are, but then they were never very common. If you ever get the chance to, you should read a (very) long interview he did with Eric Hobsbawm in the 80s; it was published in English as The Italian road to socialism, though was first published in Italian (not sure of the title).

[Antonio the Sixth]

BTW, just watched Napolitano's wishes and... wow. This is what a statesman looks like. Politicians of his intellectual quality are a near-extinct species.

They are, but then they were never very common. If you ever get the chance to, you should read a (very) long interview he did with Eric Hobsbawm in the 80s; it was published in English as The Italian road to socialism, though was first published in Italian (not sure of the title).

I looked it up, seems that it was published in 1976 in Italy, under the title "Intervista sul PCI". That's quite impressive, really.

Of course it's true that politicians of this kind have never been very common species, but to be fair, the Italian political class during the DC era was remarkably prolific in brilliant, cultured people who were thinkers as well as politicians. Especially from the PCI, of course. From what I have seen, Vendola seems to be the only remnant of this tradition with a political future.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I looked it up, seems that it was published in 1976 in Italy, under the title "Intervista sul PCI". That's quite impressive, really.

Ah, 70s not 80s; I confused it with something else (and I know what as well).

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Well, I suppose if Gramsci is one of your founding figures...

[Antonio the Sixth]

True. But to be fair, I think there were quite a few of these intellectuals in other parties as well.

[Zuza]

the PD coalition has been clearly and consistently leading the polls for years now, and in any other country they would be a safe bet at this point

I doubt it (looking at the shifts in polls in the last one or two weeks before the last Dutch election).

[Andrea]

Just so I understand, candidates file for the Primary in constituencies that aren't necessarily where they live by orders of the party leadership (or, if they're renegades or party leaders themselves, wherever they want)? Can they vote in that constituency in the Primary and General or do they have to vote where they actually live if they live in another constituency?

Yes, you don't have to live where you stand. For ex Bindi and Finocchiaro have nothing to do with Reggio Calabria and Taranto. Generally, almost all PD candidates who stood in the Primary did it in the province they live or where they were elected in 2008. Just because it's where they could have hoped to get some votes.
Many prominent PD people skipped them anyway. Bersani will put them in his 10% of candidates quota

As for voting, they will vote in the municipality where their name appears on the residents' register.

[minionofmidas]

You can even stand in many constituencies at the same time (unless they changed the law in the last few years. Of course, I assume the PD's bylaws may ban it even if the law allows it.) But you cannot stand for the Camera and the Senate at the same time. That is verboten.

[Andrea]

You can even stand in many constituencies at the same time (unless they changed the law in the last few years. Of course, I assume the PD's bylaws may ban it even if the law allows it.) But you cannot stand for the Camera and the Senate at the same time. That is verboten.

Bersani is supposed to stand in Milan, Naples and Rome. I suppose Berlusconi will stand everywhere at the House.

[minionofmidas]

You can even stand in many constituencies at the same time (unless they changed the law in the last few years. Of course, I assume the PD's bylaws may ban it even if the law allows it.) But you cannot stand for the Camera and the Senate at the same time. That is verboten.

Bersani is supposed to stand in Milan, Naples and Rome. I suppose Berlusconi will stand everywhere at the House.

I remember the time PdL and AN had joint lists and each got to top half of them... Berlusconi topped all the lists PdL was allowed to top (no IIRC - big if this - there was one exception), and didn't stand where he couldn't be no.1.

[Keystone Phil]

Any candidate that stands in more than one constituency is surely a party leader and part of the 10% quota, right?

Also, I remember Berlusconi ran in one of the Molise constituencies for some reason in 2006.

[minionofmidas]

Any candidate that stands in more than one constituency is surely a party leader

Of course.

[Franknburger]

Sorry for again changing the topic a bit: I recall Dario Fo's observation from the late 1970's that Guelph cities tend to vote red, while Ghibelline cities tend to vote black (IIRC, he used the examples of Florence, Pisa and Lucca to demonstrate his point). Does this pattern still hold true somehow, or has it been wiped out by the emergence of Lega Nord and the various reconfigurations of the Italian political landscape ?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

the PD coalition has been clearly and consistently leading the polls for years now, and in any other country they would be a safe bet at this point

I doubt it (looking at the shifts in polls in the last one or two weeks before the last Dutch election).

More to the point, what happened in 1994 shouldn't be forgotten either...

[Antonio the Sixth]

the PD coalition has been clearly and consistently leading the polls for years now, and in any other country they would be a safe bet at this point

I doubt it (looking at the shifts in polls in the last one or two weeks before the last Dutch election).

More to the point, what happened in 1994 shouldn't be forgotten either...

Hence why I said "in any other country".

[Filuwaúrdjan]

the PD coalition has been clearly and consistently leading the polls for years now, and in any other country they would be a safe bet at this point

I doubt it (looking at the shifts in polls in the last one or two weeks before the last Dutch election).

More to the point, what happened in 1994 shouldn't be forgotten either...

Hence why I said "in any other country".

We're just trying to install necessary fear in anyone who feels at all confident (which obviously would never include you; remembering the French Presidential election).

[You kip if you want to...]

the PD coalition has been clearly and consistently leading the polls for years now, and in any other country they would be a safe bet at this point

I doubt it (looking at the shifts in polls in the last one or two weeks before the last Dutch election).

More to the point, what happened in 1994 shouldn't be forgotten either...

Hence why I said "in any other country".

We're just trying to install necessary fear in anyone who feels at all confident (which obviously would never include you; remembering the French Presidential election).

That being another example of an overwhelming lead collapsing in the last few weeks.

[Leftbehind]

the PD coalition has been clearly and consistently leading the polls for years now, and in any other country they would be a safe bet at this point

I doubt it (looking at the shifts in polls in the last one or two weeks before the last Dutch election).

From socialist to social democrat though. I can't see a similar movement happening the opposite way (however much I'd like it to), even less so to the PDL or Monti lists - well maybe the latter, but I'd be surprised to see many leftists opting for his vision!

[Simfan34]

Hmm, I want to join the action in this thread, but am not sure exactly how to proceed. Hmm. Well, I like Mario Monti. When The Economist and L'Obsservatore Romano agree on something, I can't say no. Seems to have his head screwed on right, economically and socially. He's an economist, and as a wannabe I have a soft spot for economists. One of those "serious people" oakvale is always harping on about. He also seems to be trying to recreate Democrazia Cristiana. Not sure how that's going to work. As for the PDs, I'm not sure how to approach Bersani, he seems to come from the old-school Communist tradition and would be more of a Hollande type than a moderate like Prodi that came from the DC. I was hoping Rienzi would win, because I don't really have much faith in Bersani. Berlusconi should really go retire. He's openly a farce by this point. I'd like to see him win just to laugh at Italy, but I like Italy too much.

Hey, whatever happened to Fini's party? Where'd it go? Is it any sort of neofascist? Or have they finally given up on that? I've always thought it possible to look at post-Mani Pulite Italy from the pessimistic perspective of having a bunch of ex-Communists and ex-Fascists running the show in some bowdlerised Wiemar.

[Antonio the Sixth]

the PD coalition has been clearly and consistently leading the polls for years now, and in any other country they would be a safe bet at this point

I doubt it (looking at the shifts in polls in the last one or two weeks before the last Dutch election).

More to the point, what happened in 1994 shouldn't be forgotten either...

Hence why I said "in any other country".

We're just trying to install necessary fear in anyone who feels at all confident (which obviously would never include you; remembering the French Presidential election).

I am, indeed, shuddering every day. Just learning that elections will be held on Feb 24 rather than Feb 10 as initially hypothesized was horrible news to me. I know Berlusconi is desperate and would do literally anything to means, even if it means wrecking Italy beyond any hope. My only hope is that he's too incompetent to succeed...

But anyway, Lega has to take a decision on Jan 8 on where they will stand. If they stand alone, as it seems likely, I'll sigh with deep relief. If in an upset Berlusconi manages do make a deal, let's brace ourselves...