CNN Pivit Prediction Market

[eric82oslo]

CNN has partnered with the fairly new prediction site/app Pivit (the entrepeneur behind InTrade launch it a year or two ago I think) in order to offer its readers some analysis into the future of US politics.

Pivit's website is this: http://www.pivit.io/politics
And here's CNN's Pivit page: http://edition.cnn.com/specials/politics/predict

You have to register in order to place a bet. It's totally free.

Currently, the percentage likelihood of each GOP candidate to win the nomination is this (for some reason, they haven't included Gilmore yet):

1. Jeb Bush: 31%
2. Scott Walker: 30%
3. Ted Cruz: 9%
4. Donald Trump: 8%
5. Marco Rubio: 7% (why so low??)
6. John Kasich: 4%
7. Rand Paul: 2%
Shared 8. The rest: 1%


The equal percentages for Democrats are:

1. Hillary Clinton: 82%
2. Bernie Sanders: 10%
3. Joe Biden: 5%
4. Martin O'Malley: 1%
4. Jim Webb: 1%
4. Elizabeth Warren: 1%
(Lincoln Chafee: Still not included)

[The Other Castro]

Can you make actual money on this like on PredictIt?

[Torie]

It's hard to take something as seriously when money is not at stake. The thing is with money, that inside information sometimes percolates into the process.

[eric82oslo]

Currently, the percentage likelihood of each GOP candidate to win the nomination is this (for some reason, they haven't included Gilmore yet):

1. Jeb Bush: 31%
2. Scott Walker: 30%
3. Ted Cruz: 9%
4. Donald Trump: 8%
5. Marco Rubio: 7% (why so low??)
6. John Kasich: 4%
7. Rand Paul: 2%
Shared 8. The rest: 1%


The equal percentages for Democrats are:

1. Hillary Clinton: 82%
2. Bernie Sanders: 10%
3. Joe Biden: 5%
4. Martin O'Malley: 1%
4. Jim Webb: 1%
4. Elizabeth Warren: 1%
(Lincoln Chafee: Still not included)

We've seen big changes the last couple of days. The new ranking for Republicans are now:

1. Jeb Bush: 30% (-1%)
2. Scott Walker: 24% (-6%)
3. Marco Rubio: 15% (+8%)
4. Ted Cruz: 10% (+1%)
5. Donald Trump: 7% (-1%)
6. John Kasich: 2% (-2%)
6. Carly Fiorina: 2% (+1%)
6. Ben Carson: 2% (+1%)
9. Rand Paul: 1% (-1%)
Shared 9. The rest: 1% (unchanged)

This means Rubio is now 14% closer to reach Walker's probability. Rubio has gone from 5th to 3rd Place following the debate.


On the Democratic side, Sanders is rising considerably:

1. Hillary Clinton: 76% (-6%)
2. Bernie Sanders: 15% (+5%)
3. Joe Biden: 7% (+2%)
4. The rest: 1% (unchanged)

I know it makes 101% lol.