Post-Kavanaugh: Will the blue wave get bigger or smaller?

[Scottholes 2.0]

I know I've asked a similar question before on another thread, so my apologies to anyone who is annoyed with me for asking this again, but I'd love to hear from some more people! I've read some sources that suggest Republican internals show polls are seeing some GOP rebound in performance and enthusiasm due to Kavanaugh. I personally find it hard to believe that sexual assault accusations would motivate the GOP to the polls, especially since they've basically won and Dems didn't, so I have no idea why Republicans think they will suddenly surge.

[Pyro]

Republicans have nothing to be upset about going into November, while Dems do.

Four more weeks of headlines to go, regardless. Anything could happen.

[KingSweden]

Republicans have nothing to be upset about going into November, while Dems do.

Four more weeks of headlines to go, regardless. Anything could happen.

This is the best answer I can come up with too

[TML]

I will pay close attention to Senate polls in places like Nevada, Arizona, Missouri, Florida, Indiana, North Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas. If polls in late October/early November move in the Democrats' direction compared to now, this would mean a bigger wave; if they move in the Republicans' direction, it would mean a smaller wave.

[Tekken_Guy]

Bigger. The GOP enthusiasm will die down now that he’s confirmed. Gorsuch didn’t fire the base up and neither will Kavanaugh.

[Antonio the Sixth]

We'll see. No point in speculating.

[Xing]

Probably no effect, since something else will be dominating the news by then.

[MT Treasurer]

Democrats: "Bigger."
Republicans: "Smaller."

No point in speculating.

[Devout Centrist]

If wait another 29 days, we'll have our answer

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Republicans have nothing to be upset about going into November, while Dems do.

Four more weeks of headlines to go, regardless. Anything could happen.

There is a scary possibility that 2017, and earlier on this year was a anomaly with high Democratic intensity and enthusiasm. Republicans were not engaged, but now that it is past Labor Day, it is time to get serious. 

[Virginiá]

Republicans have nothing to be upset about going into November, while Dems do.

Four more weeks of headlines to go, regardless. Anything could happen.

There is a scary possibility that 2017, and earlier on this year was a anomaly with high Democratic intensity and enthusiasm. Republicans were not engaged, but now that it is past Labor Day, it is time to get serious. 

It's technically a possibility but it would be without precedent, afaik. Waves tend to stay constant or increase in intensity, but not recede, in the run up to election day.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's conceiveable the Dems can take control of Congress, but their margin of error is smaller. They will still have to virtually run the table on tossups to take control. TN, TX are R leaning, in the Senate. But Trump is below 50, and I wouldnt underestimate Dems chances.

[IceSpear]

It's already caused the Dems to collapse in North Dakota and Tennessee, so the fact that people are voting "bigger" is amusing but also unsurprising.

Whether or not the effect will recede before election day is another question.

[Young Conservative]

Bigger. The GOP enthusiasm will die down now that he’s confirmed. Gorsuch didn’t fire the base up and neither will Kavanaugh.

The two situations are not remotely comparable.

[Adam Griffin]

It'll undoubtedly go in one direction or another, but I'm highly skeptical that Kavanaugh will have any impact on it whatsoever. Basic assumptions, however, would suggest that if anybody has motivation now to get fired up and ready to go, it's the Democrats. What has happened is far more consequential to the future of this country than stuff like the ACA or whatever else the GOP was mad about in 2010 and 2014.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It was a victory for the GOP. The Kavanaugh CRT can legislate from bench as well and repeal Roe and restrict Voting Rights and completely halt any amnesty legislation coming out of Congress.

But, tax cuts repeal and entitlement reform are still Congressional agendas. Unless Dems start CRT packing

[Virginiá]

It was a victory for the GOP. The Kavanaugh CRT can legislate from bench as well and repeal Roe and restrict Voting Rights and completely halt any amnesty legislation coming out of Congress.

But, tax cuts repeal and entitlement reform are still Congressional agendas. Unless Dems start CRT packing

That would be one hell of a hack decision. Congress has a lot of power of immigration. Amnesty is within the scope of what is allowed (normally, anyway).

[Virginiá]

Semi-relevant:

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/10/08/donald-trump-women-gop-221080

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That is a pretty good point. This might actually end up being one of those moments in time that leaves a mark people ages 14 - 25, which would be a bad thing for Republicans. Trump is already doing enough damage to their brand with younger generations. Things like the Kavanaugh debacle only compound the issue even more. And while it may not seem like much of a problem now, it will be a decade or two down the road.

[Sir Mohamed]

At least four threads how Dems are doomed post-Kavanaugh. Classic Atlas.

[Figueira]

Voted bigger, but mostly because of the end of the GOP's Kavanaugh bump.

[wbrocks67]

If Kavanaugh was closer or didn't get confirmed, I would expect GOP to be still fired up.

However, he's confirmed and they've got two justices. There is still a month left, there is nothing for them to be angry about, versus Dems being angry about Kav getting confirmed.

[Beet]

The problem is, the Dems' hopes in the Senate & some House seats were always predicated on winning over people who are moderate Trump supporters. The Kavanaugh debate has polarized everything and for 3 weeks, charged everything up with a divisive social issue that clearly cleaves Trump supporters from Democrats.

No one is talking about the deficit, no one is talking health care, no one is talking education, no one is talking wages -- at least not nationally. In 1994 the Republicans had the 'Contract with America'; in 2006 there as the Iraq war; in 2010 unemployment was at 10%. What's the opposition message this time? There's no room to talk anything, it's all Kavanaugh #MeToo Kavanaugh #MeToo 24/7, drowns out everything.

[Zaybay]

Well, no where to go but up!

In all seriousness, it is likely for the Blue wave to get bigger, just because of one big October surprise that isnt really surprising and rather expected. Healthcare costs are predicted to rise soon, and that has historically helped out the party out of power.

It also seems that this entire slump is being caused by Kavanaugh, and based on 2016, 2014, and 2018 evidence, this should last, at most, for the next two weeks, 1/2 a week at least.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

The problem is, the Dems' hopes in the Senate & some House seats were always predicated on winning over people who are moderate Trump supporters. The Kavanaugh debate has polarized everything and for 3 weeks, charged everything up with a divisive social issue that clearly cleaves Trump supporters from Democrats.

There's a kernel of truth in here. Obviously the people we call "Trump supporters" (supporters, not lukewarm 2016 voters) were always going to stick with Trump no matter how the Kavanaugh hearings went down. This might get some to turn out who were otherwise staying home, but I think that effect will be small.

The real effect here will be felt through the lukewarm/reluctant 2016 voters and independents. Even though I think it's a dumb argument, messaging and spin-doctors have framed the Kavanaugh hearing as the Democrats being gripped by radical feminists and abandoning due process. This image I think is potent enough to get some of these voters who were never hardcore Trumpers to begin with and were considering voting Democratic opposition to take a step back and either stay home or consider voting R again.

No one is talking about the deficit, no one is talking health care, no one is talking education, no one is talking wages -- at least not nationally. In 1994 the Republicans had the 'Contract with America'; in 2006 there as the Iraq war; in 2010 unemployment was at 10%. What's the opposition message this time? There's no room to talk anything, it's all Kavanaugh #MeToo Kavanaugh #MeToo 24/7, drowns out everything.

Can people stop doing this? Nobody is campaigning solely on Me Too. Nobody. It's a veiled sexist attack that women are only capable of campaigning on women's issues. Anyone who says the Democrats haven't been campaigning on health care isn't paying any attention. The major fight within the party right now is how to handle health policy and it's a clear and decisive victory for the Medicare for All crowd. The party is also focusing on efforts like child care/children's health care, parental leave and funding teachers/schools.

This same attack was trotted out against Danica Roem in 2017, because "muh transperson" couldn't possibly campaign on anything other than her gender. Of course, this narrative was blatantly false, and Roem won a campaign mainly by focusing on transit of all issues.

[Torrain]

Week 1: a lot of noise, GOP enthusiasm spikes, Senate races get worse for Democrats
Next two weeks: GOP enthusiasm lulls slightly, revealing a clearer picture.
Election Day:?