Rank the top five most likely people to be elected POTUS in November 2016

[Publius]

1. Clinton
2. Bush
3. Walker
4. Rubio
T5. Christie, Kasich

[Donald Trump 2016 !]

God knows how Sanders makes these lists.

1. Clinton
2. Walker
3. Bush
4. Biden
5. Kasich

[Kingpoleon]

1. John Kasich
2. Hillary Clinton
3. Scott Walker
4. Jeb Bush 
5. Donald Trump

This, but replace Walker with Bush, make Biden fourth, and put Walker as fifth.

In other words, eliminate Trump, put Biden there:

1. Kasich
2. Clinton
3. Walker
4. Bush
5. Biden

Now put Walker as fifth and move the other two up one.

[Donerail]

1. Clinton
2. Bush
3. Biden
4. Walker
5. Cruz

[Bull Moose Base]

Motion to ban people saying Kasich is more likely to be elected than Clinton.

[Donald Trump 2016 !]

Motion to ban people saying Kasich is more likely to be elected than Clinton.

I love John Kasich, but I'd have to agree with you there.

But I'd also add that anyone who puts Sanders in a top 5 also needs to get a grip on reality.

[The Other Castro]

Motion to ban people saying Kasich is more likely to be elected than Clinton.

I love John Kasich, but I'd have to agree with you there.

But I'd also add that anyone who puts Sanders in a top 5 also needs to get a grip on reality.

I put him as number 5 because I thought the 5th most likely possible scenario could be him facing off against a crazier Republican that he could actually beat. That's why I put the more electable ones (Kasich, Walker) ahead of him.

[Donald Trump 2016 !]

Motion to ban people saying Kasich is more likely to be elected than Clinton.

I love John Kasich, but I'd have to agree with you there.

But I'd also add that anyone who puts Sanders in a top 5 also needs to get a grip on reality.

I put him as number 5 because I thought the 5th most likely possible scenario could be him facing off against a crazier Republican that he could actually beat. That's why I put the more electable ones (Kasich, Walker) ahead of him.

Which candidates are crazy in your view? Because I doubt Cruz, Trump, or Carson would be the nominee for the Republican Party.

[The Other Castro]

Motion to ban people saying Kasich is more likely to be elected than Clinton.

I love John Kasich, but I'd have to agree with you there.

But I'd also add that anyone who puts Sanders in a top 5 also needs to get a grip on reality.

I put him as number 5 because I thought the 5th most likely possible scenario could be him facing off against a crazier Republican that he could actually beat. That's why I put the more electable ones (Kasich, Walker) ahead of him.

Which candidates are crazy in your view? Because I doubt Cruz, Trump, or Carson would be the nominee for the Republican Party.

Exactly, that's why I put Sanders above them in my most likely list. Given my order, I assumed that Sanders would lose to Walker or Kasich, but I also predicted that Sanders would be matched up with someone beatable before another more electable Republican would be able to win the nomination.

[Kingpoleon]

Motion to ban people saying Kasich is more likely to be elected than Clinton.

I just wanted to do that once. You're right - Clinton is a front runner solidly in. A week after if Biden gets in, I think my list would be more correct.

[LibertyCircuitRider]

#1 Tie (Hillary-Cruz-Bush)
#2 Walker
#3 Rubio
#4 Paul
#5 You Pick

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

1. Paul
2. Cruz
3. Trump/Walker
4. Hilldawg
5. Jeb

Quick question: do you follow American politics?

I follow it quite seriously.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Clinton
Jeb
Biden
Kasich
Christie

[PresidentTRUMP]

1. Hillary
2. Rubio
3. Bush
4. Walker
5. Biden

[Maxwell]

1. Clinton
2. Kasich
3. Walker
4. Biden
5. Bush

Now that I think about it...

[ShamDam]

1. Clinton
2. Bush
3. Walker
4. Rubio
5. Kasich

[mencken]

1. Clinton
2. Walker
3. Bush
4. Cruz
5. Biden

[Mister Mets]

At this point.

1. Hillary Clinton- Mainly because she's still very likely to be the Democratic nominee.
2. Jeb Bush- Polling in the top three, and with enough fundraising to outlast the other candidates. Benefits from Trump sucking the oxygen.
3. Scott Walker- Likely to beat Bush in Iowa. Acceptable to conservative base with strong electoral record. Likely to be the main anti-Bush.
4. Marco Rubio- Still looks good on paper, and has tremendous political talent.
5. John Kasich- Strong General Election candidate with the potential to be the top alternative to Jeb and to appeal to the McCain voters.

I thought about Biden for #5, but Clinton's chances of being the nominee are very high, and the circumstances that would lead to Biden getting the nomination are likely to hurt the party.

You could make an argument for Cruz. He's ahead of Rubio, and stands to benefit from a Trump collapse.

And the possibility of a Trump presidency doesn't seem so remote. His main problems are that he's not a lot of Republican's second choice, and that he polls poorly in General Election matchups. Neither is insurmountable, even if it's unlikely.

Rand's numbers could also go up. In these lists it's easy to exxaggerate the status of the last few months (as I did in my initial post with Rand at #2 due to a few consecutive news cycles.)

[tgards79]

Clinton, Bush, Rubio, Walker, Biden