Transition Team/Cabinet Thread

[Mr. Morden]

Moved this thread here from the 2016 board because I figure Trump administration stuff is now US Gen Discussion, rather than election stuff per se.

[Mr. Morden]

Here's the speculated short list for every Cabinet position, as compiled by the NYT:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/politics/donald-trump-administration.html

Anyone want to try predicting who'll be chosen for each job?

[Mr. Morden]

Predictit has markets on many of the Cabinet jobs.  Here are the favorites for various positions:

https://www.predictit.org/Browse/Group/81/Cabinet

State: John Bolton
Defense: Jeff Sessions
Attorney General: Rudy Giuliani
Treasury: Steve Mnuchin
Homeland Security: David Clarke
HHS: Ben Carson
Interior: Forrest Lucas
Commerce: Linda McMahon
Labor: Victoria Lipnic
Agriculture: Chuck Conner
Veterans Affairs: Jeff Miller

[Mr. Morden]

Apparently there will be some Cabinet announcements "this week":

http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2016/11/14/donald-trump-cabinet-announcements/

[Mr. Morden]

Predictit odds for the top jobs:

State:
Bolton 78
Corker 15
Gingrich 7

Defense:
Sessions 35
Talent 25
Flynn 16

Treasury
Mnuchin 90
Hensarling 4

Attorney General
Giuliani 59
Gowdy 25
Christie 8

Homeland Security
Clarke 39
Giuliani 20
Christie 8

[Mr. Morden]

Defense:
Sessions 35
Talent 25
Flynn 16

Update: Talent just moved into a tie for first in the last few minutes:

Talent 35
Sessions 35
Flynn 16

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/donald-trump-administration/2016/11/trump-said-to-narrow-choices-for-treasury-to-mnuchin-ross-231349

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[Mr. Morden]

Talent now solidly ahead of Sessions on Predictit.

https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/798262710668558336

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[Mr. Morden]

Now the WSJ says Giuliani’s a leading contender for Secretary of State:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/rudy-giuliani-john-bolton-are-leading-candidates-for-next-secretary-of-state-1479156004

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Because he’s now being considered for so many jobs, Giuliani has dropped into a virtual tie on Predictit for Attorney General…

Attorney General
Rudy Giuliani 43
Trey Gowdy 41
Chris Christie 9

Meanwhile, Huckabee’s now edged ahead of Linda McMahon in the betting on Secretary of Commerce.

[Mr. Morden]

Basically, it sounds like Giuliani is all but assured of being in the Cabinet somewhere, but it's unclear whether it'll be Secretary of State, Attorney General, or Secretary of Homeland Security.

[Mr. Morden]

Sessions might get Homeland Security if he doesn't get Defense:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/11/11/trump-homeland-security-candidates-include-gop-lawmakers-and-less-likely-a-sheriff/

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/14/politics/trump-shortlist-national-security-worldview/

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[Mr. Morden]

Sarah Palin has now pulled into the lead on the Predictit market for Secretary of the Interior.

[Mr. Morden]

according to huffpo sessions geta swiftboated...

https://mobile.twitter.com/ryangrim/status/798262710668558336

That tweet is from midday, and I posted it in this thread earlier this afternoon:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=251413.msg5393864#msg5393864

The thing is, there've been subsequent news stories that pegged Sessions as being the solid favorite for Defense.  So I'm not sure who we should believe here.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump and Pence are meeting in New York today to discuss Cabinet picks:

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/15/trump-pence-meeting-in-new-york-on-cabinet-picks.html

[Mr. Morden]

On Predictit, Giuliani being given a 60% chance of being Secretary of State.  Sessions now a plurality favorite for both Defense (narrowly ahead of Talent, 37-33) and Attorney General (narrowly ahead of Gowdy, 43-33).  Michael McCaul now the favorite for Homeland Security, as David Clarke slides.  And Jan Brewer’s now taken the lead away from Palin for Secretary of the Interior.

[Mr. Morden]

I don't know why Giuliani wouldn't be confirmed.  A Republican Senate isn't going to confirm Giuliani?  Why not?

[Mr. Morden]

Tbh, I doubt Bolton or Giuliani could get confirmed.

I don't know why Giuliani wouldn't be confirmed.  A Republican Senate isn't going to confirm Giuliani?  Why not?

I just remembered that in addition to being an authoritarian fascist, Giuliani is pro-choice. This seems like something on which progressives could ally with religious conservatives and libertarians: it would probably be doable to convince Paul, Cruz, Lee, Sasse, and maybe a few others to vote against Giuliani. And from a pragmatic/PR point of view, it would be much better to have a theocratic attorney general going after women for having miscarriages than having Giuliani trying to indict all of Trump's enemies.

But all the buzz about Giuliani as Attorney General died yesterday, as discussed in this thread.  It now looks like he'll be picked for Secretary of State instead, and I don't see any of the Senators you mentioned voting against him for that job.  They won't sink him over abortion, if it's for Secretary of State.  Paul and Lee voted to confirm John Kerry as SoS, and I don't see them backing Kerry but not Giuliani.

[Mr. Morden]

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Ha, OK, maybe I was wrong on Paul. 

I still don't think Giuliani will have trouble being confirmed, unless there's some new scandal about him out there that we haven't heard of yet.

[Mr. Morden]

I don't know why Giuliani wouldn't be confirmed.  A Republican Senate isn't going to confirm Giuliani?  Why not?

All it would take is 3 GOP defectors.

That's assuming every single Democrat (and Independent) votes no.  Why would that happen?  Most Cabinet appointees get bipartisan support.  Hillary Clinton was confirmed as SoS by a vote of 94-2, for example.  If some brand new scandal emerges on Giuliani, then sure, that's a problem.  But Trump is going to have an awful lot of bad Cabinet picks, and I don't see what makes Giuliani so uniquely awful a choice that he's going to spark unified Democratic opposition.  They'll find some other nominee to draw their line in the sand over.

[Mr. Morden]

Now that Carson seems to have taken himself out of the running for HHS, Bobby Jindal has taken the lead in Predictit's market for that job.  Betsy McCaughey's in second place.

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/wilbur-ross-commerce-secretary-trump-231421

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[Mr. Morden]

http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/306045-carson-turned-down-offer-to-serve-in-trump-administration-report

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Why did he run for President then? Would be funny if it wasn't terrifying

Yes, he somehow seems to believe that he's qualified to be President of the United States, but not qualified to run any of the Cabinet departments.

[Mr. Morden]

The new HHS frontrunner now that Carson is out:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/tom-price-health-human-services-trump-231427

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[Mr. Morden]

Politico's updated list of who's rumored to be up for which Cabinet job:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/donald-trump-administration/2016/11/donald-trump-cabinet-members-list-of-choices-picks-and-selections-so-far-231444