latest Betfair odds

[Likely Voter]

Betfair prices are set by the bookmakers. This isnt the same as intrade (which closed down). So there are no 'shares' for people to buy/sell/hold. In theory this means the odds should be more realistic and not be able to be influenced by traders in a low volume market, but this far out the bookmakers are really just guessing. Once everyone announces and there are lots of polls the odds will likely be more realistic and change more often. I doubt there is much betting going on now anyway.

[Likely Voter]

Rubio has already passed Bush on PredictIt
https://www.predictit.org/Browse/Group/53/President

GOP
Marco Rubio   38¢
Jeb Bush   32¢
John Kasich   15¢
Donald Trump   15¢
Ben Carson   14¢
Carly Fiorina   12¢
Ted Cruz   11¢
Rand Paul   7¢
Chris Christie   7¢
Mitt Romney   7¢
Mike Huckabee   4¢
Rick Santorum   4¢
Bobby Jindal   3¢
Scott Walker   2¢
Sarah Palin   2¢
Lindsey Graham   2¢
Mike Pence   2¢
Rick Perry   1¢
Paul Ryan   1¢
Susana Martinez   1¢
George Pataki   1¢
(lol @ Gilmore not even worth being listed)

DEMS
Hillary Clinton   59¢
Bernie Sanders   29¢
Joe Biden   27¢
Martin O'Malley   8¢
Jim Webb   6¢
Elizabeth Warren   5¢
Al Gore   3¢
Jerry Brown   2¢
Lincoln Chafee   2¢
Bill de Blasio   1¢

[Likely Voter]

PredictIt has a market on which GOPer will drop out next. 

George Pataki   32¢
Bobby Jindal   23¢
Rick Santorum   15¢
Chris Christie   15¢
Rand Paul   15¢
Lindsey Graham   14¢
Jeb Bush   13¢
Carly Fiorina   9¢
John Kasich   7¢
Mike Huckabee   6¢
Donald Trump   6¢
Ben Carson   5¢
Ted Cruz   2¢
Marco Rubio   2¢


Bush has surged in the last few days. He was at 4¢ on the 22nd (probably a bit of an over-reaction to the bad campaign news).

[Likely Voter]

He has enough money to last through the end of the year. I think some of the media hype about campaign chaos, emergency meetings with family, staff cuts got some people thinking it could be another Walker situation and tried to get in early but his price to be 'next' has been dropping in last couple of days.  At the current prices on Predictit I would sell Bush for sure and I would also sell Graham, he has slow burn and good amount of money and just got 2% in a poll. I would buy Huckabee for sure, I think he is a sleeper for getting out next.

[Likely Voter]

Why is Christie still that high? He didn't even get into the next big boy debate.

Probably because people think his performance in the CNBC debate just hasn't made an impact on the polls yet but will soon.

Christie spiked up after the CNN debate which was seven weeks ago, passing Kasich. But since then he hasn't really turned that (or the CNBC debate performance) into polling. Kasich still outpolls Christie both in NH and nationally. And now Christie isn't even in the main FBN debate. Kasich also has more money and of course much better at home favorables and of course OH is more important electoral state. I can see no reason why Christie is priced higher than Kasich. At PredictIt Kasich is ahead of Christie in overall GOP winner and NH winner.

[Likely Voter]

The betting assumes that in the end an establishment candidate will win and so whichever 'establishment' candidate is polling best is the favorite, even if he is 3rd place.  It will be interesting to see what happens if Rubio falls back to 4th place behind Christie in NH.

[Likely Voter]

Rubio continues to trend down at PredictIt. Their pricing now is...

Cruz 33¢
Trump 31¢
Rubio 29¢
Bush 8¢
Christie 8¢
Kasich 2¢