Glenrothes by-election (UK)

[Harry Hayfield]

BBC Scotland is working on the assumption of a Lab HOLD with a majority of just over 5,000

[Filuwaúrdjan]

BBC Scotland is working on the assumption of a Lab HOLD with a majority of just over 5,000

Really?!

[Harry Hayfield]

Glenrothes due in 15 minutes.

[Harry Hayfield]

Morag Balfour (Socialist Socalists)
Maurice Golden (Scottish Conservatives)
Peter Grant (Scottish National Party)
Louise McLeary (Solidarity)
Jim Parker (Scottish Sensior Citizen's Unity Party)
Lindsay Roy (Scottish Labour Party)
Kris Seunarine (United Kingdom Independence Party)
Harry Wills (Scottish Liberal Democrats)

(To be filled in during declaration, posted to get format and to list candidates)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A Trot with that surname is pretty funny...

[Harry Hayfield]

Morag Balfour (Socialist Socalists) 212 (1%)
Maurice Golden (Scottish Conservatives) 1,381 (4% -3%)
Peter Grant (Scottish National Party) 13,209 (36% +13%)
Louise McLeary (Solidarity) 87 (0%)
Jim Parker (Scottish Senior Citizen's Unity Party) 296 (1%)
Lindsay Roy (Scottish Labour Party) 19,946 (55% +3%)
Kris Seunarine (United Kingdom Independence Party) 117 (0%)
Harry Wills (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 947 (3% -10%)

Lab HOLD with a majority of 6,737 (19%) on a swing of 5% from Lab to SNP

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Roy polled more votes (just) and a higher percentage than MacDougall did in 2005.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I still can't quite believe this. Brown used to represent part of the seat and campaigned personally there three times (very unusual for a by-election) which might explain some of it. But, wow.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Early rumour: tight, but SNP win.

So, yeah. Don't believe early rumours.

[Harry Hayfield]

Tally of by-elections since 2005 (excluding Haltemprice)

Votes Cast General Election 2005
Labour 182,192 (39.40%)
Conservatives 112,404 (24.30%)
Liberal Democrats 94,458 (20.42%)
Scottish National Party 31,585 (6.83%)
Plaid Cymru 843 (0.18%)
Other Parties 40,921 (8.84%)

Votes Cast By-elections 2005 - 2008 (and change on 2005)
Labour 108,952 (30.17% -9.23%)
Conservatives 88,932 (24.63% +0.33%)
Liberal Democrats 82,083 (22.73% +2.31%)
Scottish National Party 41,386 (11.46% +4.53%)
Plaid Cymru 1,755 (0.48% +0.30%)
Other Parties 37,939 (10.50% +1.66%)

Swings
From Lab to Con: 4.78%
From Lab to Lib Dem: 5.77%
From Con to Lib Dem: 0.99%

Forecast General Election
Conservatives 289 seats (+79 seats)
Labour 239 seats (-110 seats)
Liberal Democrats 85 seats (+23 seats)
Scottish National Party 7 seats (+1 seat)
Plaid Cymru 4 seats (+2 seats)
Others 26 seats (+5 seats)
Conservatives short of an overall majority by 37 seats

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One of the things Labour did here was run against the record of Fife council (SNP, LibDem coalition I think; the SNP candidate is the Leader of the council anyway) in particular regarding home care stuff for the elderly. I don't know the details, but along with usual tales of cuts (this is why running senior local politicians in by-elections can be a mistake, btw), I did hear something about the introduction of a means-tested system, which (bearing in mind the result) is interesting. Much of the constituency is old mining territory (and the people in Glenrothes new town largely came from the Lanarkshire coalfield) and older people will still remember the Means Test back in the Depression and all that went with it; old working class people often have a very strong emotional reaction to means testing because of these (often childhood) memories.

[Rural Radical]

Great result. To win with over 50% of the vote as well.

[Silent Hunter]

Great result. To win with over 50% of the vote as well.

Indeed. To quote Brian Blessed...

Gordon's Alive!!!!!!!!!

[Rural Radical]

Great result. To win with over 50% of the vote as well.

Indeed. To quote Brian Blessed...

Gordon's Alive!!!!!!!!!

Ironically that is one of my favourite films.

[minionofmidas]

Amazing. Candidate quality and a swing in the public mood both helped I presume?

[Rural Radical]

Amazing. Candidate quality and a swing in the public mood both helped I presume?

Yes to both. I think Labours fortunes are rising at the moment and the economic situation has helped this.

[Silent Hunter]

Bank of England announced a 1.5% base rate cut yesterday too.

[Rural Radical]

I love that sound (Silence from the Tories and Nats on this thread).

[Јas]

I love that sound (Silence from the Tories and Nats on this thread).

Was there likely to be an influx of Tories and Nationalists had the seat fallen?

[afleitch]

I love that sound (Silence from the Tories and Nats on this thread).

Was there likely to be an influx of Tories and Nationalists had the seat fallen?

Only an influx of me And I think I do a good job of being a 'one man band' on here.

I placed my first ever political bet on this seat with good odds. I had a handsome return and it's went straight to charity.