Ethiopia invades Somalia

[WMS]

I've been following this, and at the moment it would be hard for Ethiopia to push past Baidoa - logistics concerns - or for the ICU to take it - fortification concerns. It appears to currently be a stalemate.

And for general consumption, here's a map to follow things.

Areas known to be under control of the ICU are Mogadishu, Giohar, Beledweyne, and now Buurhakaba. From that and other sources...the ICU appears to control Shabeellaha Dhexe, Shabeellaha, and Hiraan Regions, more or less, and to be making a bid for Bay and Bakool Regions. I have no idea who is in control of Jubbada Dhexe and Jubbada Hoose Regions, but by logic of access routes the Ethiopians-Transitional Government have to control Gedo Region (and the core of Bay Region) and likely control Bakool Region. I also have no idea who controls Galguduud and Mudug Regions, Puntland controls Bari Region and might control Nugaal Region, and Somaliland controls Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag Regions (the last two are disputed with Puntland to some extent).

OK BRTD, this should help you track how well everyone is doing.

[WMS]

So we end up with a 3-way split. Ethopia and the Transititional Government control one part, the Islamists control another, and Somaliland is the rest.

If Ethiopia were to get Western support and air strikes on their side they could probably dislodge the Islamists.

At least 3-ways - I'm not sure who controls 4-5 Regions of Somalia - it might be the usual Somalian pastiche of random warlords. And there's Puntland as well. So we have 4 big factions and an unknown number of smaller factions.

Ethiopia already gets military support from the U.S., I think...and I know we're involved up in Somaliland as part of our Task Force we have operating in the Red Sea. I did mention before that I've read the U.S. might get more directly involved if the ICU makes a move into the -lands, right?

[WMS]

So we end up with a 3-way split. Ethopia and the Transititional Government control one part, the Islamists control another, and Somaliland is the rest.

If Ethiopia were to get Western support and air strikes on their side they could probably dislodge the Islamists.

At least 3-ways - I'm not sure who controls 4-5 Regions of Somalia - it might be the usual Somalian pastiche of random warlords. And there's Puntland as well. So we have 4 big factions and an unknown number of smaller factions.

Indeed, I am fairly sure that until recently the "transitional" "government" controlled only the immediate vicinity of Baidoa and the road from there to Ethiopia, so if these areas are now Ethiopian-held, they now control, eh, well, zilch or nigh-on zilch.

Of course, anyone aware of Somali and Ethiopian recent history knows that no other news (well, except perhaps a Somali invasion of Ethiopia) could have possibly been worse.

The Islamists taking over the whole country certainly would be. After all, they killed peopel for watching the World Cup and have said they'll execute anyone who misses daily prayers.

Well, "the Islamists taking over the whole country" sounds like a not unlikely outcome of their being warred on by hated Ethiopia.

Even then its very unlikely. They could push away the opposition from the Southern Warlords but once they try to turn their attack against Puntland or Somaliland they would be in trouble especially since those are more organized governments and groups who are well experienced, Somaliland and Puntland fought a war with each other in the 90's. If the war does turn to the North as well American aid and recognition could begin to flow into Somaliland making that more powerful and stable. I really don't know why we don't recognize Somaliland and recognize them, for now, as the most legitamate authority in Somalia.

Good answer, Colin. Especially that last sentence there. But let us remember that Somaliland wants independence, and doesn't want to govern the rest of Somalia (ironically enough, they probably have by far the most internal legitimacy for that). I will note that the jihadists staged a coup in Puntland back in 2001 which was reversed with quiet U.S. involvement, so keep that in mind. One of the ironies of this whole situation is that an ICU victory could very well result in an internationally-recognized Somaliland, backed by the U.S. and the U.K., both of which have supported the government there.

If the ICU tries to tangle with Somaliland, they are in for quite a fight...and gee, make a guess which side I back.

*UPDATED*

I've been following this, and at the moment it would be hard for Ethiopia to push past Baidoa - logistics concerns - or for the ICU to take it - fortification concerns. It appears to currently be a stalemate.
*Yes, fighting has resumed between the ICU and the TFG. The report specifically does not say with Ethiopian forces.

And for general consumption, here's a map to follow things.

Areas known to be under control of the ICU are Mogadishu, Giohar, Beledweyne, and now Buurhakaba. From that and other sources...the ICU appears to control Shabeellaha Dhexe, Shabeellaha, and Hiraan Regions, more or less, and to be making a bid for Bay and Bakool Regions.* I have no idea who is in control of Jubbada Dhexe and Jubbada Hoose Regions, but by logic of access routes the Ethiopians-Transitional Government have to control Gedo Region (and the core of Bay Region) and likely control Bakool Region*. I also have no idea who controls Galguduud Region, Puntland controls Bari and Nugaal Regions, and from Wiki appears to control the north and west of Mudug Region (which leaves the question of who controls the rest of Mudug wide open) and Somaliland controls Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag Regions (the last two are disputed with Puntland to some extent).

*From various sources the Ethiopians have moved into Bakool Region, specifically the town of Wajid, after seizing the airport there *from local authorities*. This is logical based on the geography of the region. Just who the local authorities were I don't know...but it would be interesting to find out.

And for general consumption, here's a map to follow things.

*cough*

I laughed at this one, ILV. I even swiped it and put it in my own Photobucket account.

[WMS]

In recent weeks the Islamic courts have wrested control of much of southern Somalia from many of the warlords who divided up the country into rival fiefdoms following the overthrow of Siad Barre in 1991.

They couldn't, like, give some details here, could they? It would be nice to know just who controls what. *grumble*

[WMS]

*UPDATED AGAIN*

*UPDATED*

I've been following this, and at the moment it would be hard for Ethiopia to push past Baidoa - logistics concerns - or for the ICU to take it - fortification concerns. It appears to currently be a stalemate.
*Yes, fighting has resumed between the ICU and the TFG. The report specifically does not say with Ethiopian forces.

And for general consumption, here's a map to follow things.

Areas known to be under control of the ICU are Mogadishu, Giohar, Beledweyne, and now Buurhakaba. From that and other sources...the ICU appears to control Shabeellaha Dhexe, Shabeellaha, and Hiraan Regions, more or less, and to be making a bid for Bay and Bakool Regions.* I have no idea who is in control of Jubbada Dhexe and Jubbada Hoose Regions, but by logic of access routes the Ethiopians-Transitional Government have to control Gedo Region (and the core of Bay Region) and likely control Bakool Region*. I also have no idea who controls Galguduud Region, Puntland controls Bari and Nugaal Regions, and from Wiki appears to control the north and west of Mudug Region (which leaves the question of who controls the rest of Mudug wide open) and Somaliland controls Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag Regions (the last two are disputed with Puntland to some extent).

*From various sources the Ethiopians have moved into Bakool Region, specifically the town of Wajid, after seizing the airport there *from local authorities*. This is logical based on the geography of the region. Just who the local authorities were I don't know...but it would be interesting to find out.

- The TFG's President has issued a one-week deadline for all residents of Baidoa to hand in their guns or else the goverment will take them by force. Pardon me while I have a WTF moment...
- The ICU has announced plans to extend their control to the Mudug Region (my source inverted the g and the d ) to 'eradicate piracy in Haradere' (and no, I can't find that place on the map either but it was the birthplace of an ex-President of Somalia...in the Obbia district, which I also can't find on the map, but I will make a phonentic guess and say it's Hobyo on the map). The ICU also says they want to establish a shariah court there. Commentary in a sec...
- The ICU has won the support of the Hawiye Clan (remember them from Black Hawk Down? Yep, Aidid's people), who turned over 50 trucks with machineguns in Adaado Township in the Galguduud Region. The ICU has also established a shariah court there. So...the ICU is moving north.

Hmm, I'll just list the regions:
Gedo - TFG/Ethiopian control
Bay, Bakool - Contested between TFG/Ethiopians and ICU
Banaadir, Shabeellaha Hoose, Shabeellaha Dhexe, Hiraan, Galguduud - ICU control
Mudug - Contested between Puntland, ICU, and maybe local warlords
Nugaal, Bari - Puntland control
Sanaag, Sool - Contested between Somaliland and Puntland, although I think Somaliland currently controls them
Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer - Somaliland control
Jubbada Dhexe and Jubbada Hoose - No idea, still (and I would really like to know)

Oh, Lewis, Stratfor did an analysis based on the events of your article and they see it as pointing toward another Ethiopian-Eritrean war, complete with Somalian proxies.

[WMS]

Ethiopia has accused, like, about 5 neighboring countries of sponsoring the ICU ... and Eritrea is the only country on that list not heavily Muslim.

But Eritrea is the best candidate...them and Yemen. Makes tons and tons of geopolitical sense...

[WMS]

*and again*

*UPDATED AGAIN*

*UPDATED*

I've been following this, and at the moment it would be hard for Ethiopia to push past Baidoa - logistics concerns - or for the ICU to take it - fortification concerns. It appears to currently be a stalemate.
*Yes, fighting has resumed between the ICU and the TFG. The report specifically does not say with Ethiopian forces.

And for general consumption, here's a map to follow things.

Areas known to be under control of the ICU are Mogadishu, Giohar, Beledweyne, and now Buurhakaba. From that and other sources...the ICU appears to control Shabeellaha Dhexe, Shabeellaha, and Hiraan Regions, more or less, and to be making a bid for Bay and Bakool Regions.* I have no idea who is in control of Jubbada Dhexe and Jubbada Hoose Regions, but by logic of access routes the Ethiopians-Transitional Government have to control Gedo Region (and the core of Bay Region) and likely control Bakool Region*. I also have no idea who controls Galguduud Region, Puntland controls Bari and Nugaal Regions, and from Wiki appears to control the north and west of Mudug Region (which leaves the question of who controls the rest of Mudug wide open) and Somaliland controls Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag Regions (the last two are disputed with Puntland to some extent).

*From various sources the Ethiopians have moved into Bakool Region, specifically the town of Wajid, after seizing the airport there *from local authorities*. This is logical based on the geography of the region. Just who the local authorities were I don't know...but it would be interesting to find out.

- The TFG's President has issued a one-week deadline for all residents of Baidoa to hand in their guns or else the goverment will take them by force. Pardon me while I have a WTF moment...
- The ICU has announced plans to extend their control to the Mudug Region (my source inverted the g and the d ) to 'eradicate piracy in Haradere' (and no, I can't find that place on the map either but it was the birthplace of an ex-President of Somalia...in the Obbia district, which I also can't find on the map, but I will make a phonentic guess and say it's Hobyo on the map). The ICU also says they want to establish a shariah court there. Commentary in a sec...
- The ICU has won the support of the Hawiye Clan (remember them from Black Hawk Down? Yep, Aidid's people), who turned over 50 trucks with machineguns in Adaado Township in the Galguduud Region. The ICU has also established a shariah court there. So...the ICU is moving north.

Hmm, I'll just list the regions:
Gedo - TFG/Ethiopian control
Bay, Bakool - Contested between TFG/Ethiopians and ICU
Banaadir, Shabeellaha Hoose, Shabeellaha Dhexe, Hiraan, Galguduud - ICU control
Mudug - Contested between Puntland, ICU, and maybe local warlords
Nugaal, Bari - Puntland control
Sanaag, Sool - Contested between Somaliland and Puntland, although I think Somaliland currently controls them
Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer - Somaliland control
Jubbada Dhexe and Jubbada Hoose - No idea, still (and I would really like to know)

Oh, Lewis, Stratfor did an analysis based on the events of your article and they see it as pointing toward another Ethiopian-Eritrean war, complete with Somalian proxies.

More details on the ICU move into the Mudug and Galguduud Region: this is a clan-based shifting of loyalties. Basically, the Habar Gedir clan - which, not at all conicidentally, is the clan the leader of the ICU belongs to - is the dominant clan in both regions and thus their shift in loyalty has expanded the ICU's control.
- Note: this brings the ICU closer to the Ogaden...and that is a severe flashpoint for the Ethiopians. This will increase the chances of a bigger war.
- Note 2: however, the same analysis also says that the ICU will have a much harder time expanding further north into non-Habar Gedir Puntland and Somaliland. The three- or four-way division of Somalia postulated before looks more likely...which is still less confusing than the previous mess.

And Mark Warner 08, everyone there does have modern weaponry...for the Third World. Trucks with machineguns, AK-47s, Rocket-Propelled Grenades, mines, regular grenades, probably APC's...

[WMS]

And Mark Warner 08, everyone there does have modern weaponry...for the Third World. Trucks with machineguns, AK-47s, Rocket-Propelled Grenades, mines, regular grenades, probably APC's...

I know that, should be a joke ...

Oh, I figured that was the case

No new military moves to report, although there's been some more internal fraying amongst the TFG.

[WMS]

*and again*

*and again*

*UPDATED AGAIN*

*UPDATED*

I've been following this, and at the moment it would be hard for Ethiopia to push past Baidoa - logistics concerns - or for the ICU to take it - fortification concerns. It appears to currently be a stalemate.
*Yes, fighting has resumed between the ICU and the TFG. The report specifically does not say with Ethiopian forces.

And for general consumption, here's a map to follow things.

Areas known to be under control of the ICU are Mogadishu, Giohar, Beledweyne, and now Buurhakaba. From that and other sources...the ICU appears to control Shabeellaha Dhexe, Shabeellaha, and Hiraan Regions, more or less, and to be making a bid for Bay and Bakool Regions.* I have no idea who is in control of Jubbada Dhexe and Jubbada Hoose Regions, but by logic of access routes the Ethiopians-Transitional Government have to control Gedo Region (and the core of Bay Region) and likely control Bakool Region*. I also have no idea who controls Galguduud Region, Puntland controls Bari and Nugaal Regions, and from Wiki appears to control the north and west of Mudug Region (which leaves the question of who controls the rest of Mudug wide open) and Somaliland controls Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag Regions (the last two are disputed with Puntland to some extent).

*From various sources the Ethiopians have moved into Bakool Region, specifically the town of Wajid, after seizing the airport there *from local authorities*. This is logical based on the geography of the region. Just who the local authorities were I don't know...but it would be interesting to find out.

- The TFG's President has issued a one-week deadline for all residents of Baidoa to hand in their guns or else the goverment will take them by force. Pardon me while I have a WTF moment...
- The ICU has announced plans to extend their control to the Mudug Region (my source inverted the g and the d ) to 'eradicate piracy in Haradere' (and no, I can't find that place on the map either but it was the birthplace of an ex-President of Somalia...in the Obbia district, which I also can't find on the map, but I will make a phonentic guess and say it's Hobyo on the map). The ICU also says they want to establish a shariah court there. Commentary in a sec...
- The ICU has won the support of the Hawiye Clan (remember them from Black Hawk Down? Yep, Aidid's people), who turned over 50 trucks with machineguns in Adaado Township in the Galguduud Region. The ICU has also established a shariah court there. So...the ICU is moving north.

Hmm, I'll just list the regions:
Gedo - TFG/Ethiopian control
Bay, Bakool - Contested between TFG/Ethiopians and ICU
Banaadir, Shabeellaha Hoose, Shabeellaha Dhexe, Hiraan, Galguduud - ICU control
Mudug - Contested between Puntland, ICU, and maybe local warlords
Nugaal, Bari - Puntland control
Sanaag, Sool - Contested between Somaliland and Puntland, although I think Somaliland currently controls them
Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer - Somaliland control
Jubbada Dhexe and Jubbada Hoose - No idea, still (and I would really like to know)

Oh, Lewis, Stratfor did an analysis based on the events of your article and they see it as pointing toward another Ethiopian-Eritrean war, complete with Somalian proxies.

More details on the ICU move into the Mudug and Galguduud Region: this is a clan-based shifting of loyalties. Basically, the Habar Gedir clan - which, not at all conicidentally, is the clan the leader of the ICU belongs to - is the dominant clan in both regions and thus their shift in loyalty has expanded the ICU's control.
- Note: this brings the ICU closer to the Ogaden...and that is a severe flashpoint for the Ethiopians. This will increase the chances of a bigger war.
- Note 2: however, the same analysis also says that the ICU will have a much harder time expanding further north into non-Habar Gedir Puntland and Somaliland. The three- or four-way division of Somalia postulated before looks more likely...which is still less confusing than the previous mess.

The ICU captured the "central Somalian town of Beletuein [note: source has different spellings than Wikipedia's map in general], a strategically important area near the Ethiopian border. The victory gives the Islamists  greater freedom of movement in the southern part of central Somalia". No, I'm not sure what region this is in - I can't friggin locate "Beletuein". The BBC (different source) says it's about 300km north of Mogadishu. Err...ooh, a map! Not too far NE of Baidoa, in either Bakool or Hiraan Region...I'm going to guess it's in Hiraan Region, OK? Apparently this move was with popular support in the town.

News from Mudug Region: the ICU is advancing on Galcaio, "just south of the largely autonomous Punland region". The TFG announced they were prepared to defend Puntland against any ICU advance...

...OK, I didn't think the TFG even existed in Mudug. And does this announcement mean the TFG is allying with Puntland? Unlike in Beletuein, residents here are highly divided about the ICU and there were riots between the two sides.

There was also a clash in Ogaden between Ethiopians and Ogaden rebels...there were prisoners taken who said they were armed and trained by Eritrean (yes, Lewis, I believe Eritrea is almost half Muslim IIRC, but the single party is Christian [who in turn make up slightly over half the population]) and Somalian Islamists and sent to cause Ethiopia trouble. The ICU denies backing them. Make up your own mind...

The WMS Somalia Report concludes this broadcast.

[WMS]

*yep, again*

*and again*

*and again*

*UPDATED AGAIN*

*UPDATED*

And for general consumption, here's a map to follow things.

- The TFG's President has issued a one-week deadline for all residents of Baidoa to hand in their guns or else the goverment will take them by force. Pardon me while I have a WTF moment...
- The ICU has announced plans to extend their control to the Mudug Region (my source inverted the g and the d ) to 'eradicate piracy in Haradere' (and no, I can't find that place on the map either but it was the birthplace of an ex-President of Somalia...in the Obbia district, which I also can't find on the map, but I will make a phonentic guess and say it's Hobyo on the map). The ICU also says they want to establish a shariah court there. Commentary in a sec...
- The ICU has won the support of the Hawiye Clan (remember them from Black Hawk Down? Yep, Aidid's people), who turned over 50 trucks with machineguns in Adaado Township in the Galguduud Region. The ICU has also established a shariah court there. So...the ICU is moving north.

Hmm, I'll just list the regions:
Gedo - TFG/Ethiopian control
Bay, Bakool - Contested between TFG/Ethiopians and ICU
Banaadir, Shabeellaha Hoose, Shabeellaha Dhexe, Hiraan, Galguduud - ICU control
Mudug - Contested between Puntland, ICU, and maybe local warlords
Nugaal, Bari - Puntland control
Sanaag, Sool - Contested between Somaliland and Puntland, although I think Somaliland currently controls them
Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer - Somaliland control
Jubbada Dhexe and Jubbada Hoose - No idea, still (and I would really like to know)

More details on the ICU move into the Mudug and Galguduud Region: this is a clan-based shifting of loyalties. Basically, the Habar Gedir clan - which, not at all conicidentally, is the clan the leader of the ICU belongs to - is the dominant clan in both regions and thus their shift in loyalty has expanded the ICU's control.
- Note: this brings the ICU closer to the Ogaden...and that is a severe flashpoint for the Ethiopians. This will increase the chances of a bigger war.
- Note 2: however, the same analysis also says that the ICU will have a much harder time expanding further north into non-Habar Gedir Puntland and Somaliland. The three- or four-way division of Somalia postulated before looks more likely...which is still less confusing than the previous mess.

The ICU captured the "central Somalian town of Beletuein [note: source has different spellings than Wikipedia's map in general], a strategically important area near the Ethiopian border. The victory gives the Islamists  greater freedom of movement in the southern part of central Somalia". The BBC (different source) says it's about 300km north of Mogadishu. Err...ooh, a map! Not too far NE of Baidoa, in either Bakool or Hiraan Region...I'm going to guess it's in Hiraan Region, OK? Apparently this move was with popular support in the town.

News from Mudug Region: the ICU is advancing on Galcaio, "just south of the largely autonomous Punland region". The TFG announced they were prepared to defend Puntland against any ICU advance...

...OK, I didn't think the TFG even existed in Mudug. And does this announcement mean the TFG is allying with Puntland? Unlike in Beletuein, residents here are highly divided about the ICU and there were riots between the two sides.

-Aaaand the ICU has taken "Harardhere" (see the bolded part above - Hobyo on the map, I think) in Mudug Region, just like they said they were going to.

-Pro-TFG authorities in Northern Somalia are hunting for ICU clerics...looks like an alliance shift has taken place...

-In Puntland, their police are searching for an ICU cleric who announced the formation of a sharia court in "Las Anood" district...aha! Lasanod in Wiki, the Regional Capital of Sool Region...bloody hell, that's in areas also claimed by Somaliland! The ICU is definitely heading north.

WMS, who digs up this stuff so you don't have to.

*edit, since no one replied and I can get away with it*
-Yes, it was indeed Hobyo that was taken by the ICU. Apparently they surrounded it with "machinegun-carrying pickup trucks" and demanded the town surrender...which it did, no shots being fired. And that confirms that report. Well, kinda - going by the BBC Harardhere is actually a separate port, and the ICU is denying having taken Hobyo. Go look for yourself. Damn, I need a better map to keep track of all this.

[WMS]

Ooh, ooh... keeping the reports coming! You are the ONLY source in the world for this information!

Thanks, although I'm gathering my data from a few other sources.

Not much new yet since the last report...nothing worth bumping my main post about.

[WMS]

*hmm*

*yep, again*

*and again*

*and again*

*UPDATED AGAIN*

*UPDATED*

And for general consumption, here's a map to follow things.

- The TFG's President has issued a one-week deadline for all residents of Baidoa to hand in their guns or else the goverment will take them by force. Pardon me while I have a WTF moment...
- The ICU has announced plans to extend their control to the Mudug Region (my source inverted the g and the d ) to 'eradicate piracy in Haradere' (and no, I can't find that place on the map either but it was the birthplace of an ex-President of Somalia...in the Obbia district, which I also can't find on the map, but I will make a phonentic guess and say it's Hobyo on the map). The ICU also says they want to establish a shariah court there.
- The ICU has won the support of the Hawiye Clan (remember them from Black Hawk Down? Yep, Aidid's people), who turned over 50 trucks with machineguns in Adaado Township in the Galguduud Region. The ICU has also established a shariah court there. So...the ICU is moving north.

Hmm, I'll just list the regions:
Gedo - TFG/Ethiopian control
Bay, Bakool - Contested between TFG/Ethiopians and ICU
Banaadir, Shabeellaha Hoose, Shabeellaha Dhexe, Hiraan, Galguduud - ICU control
Mudug - Contested between Puntland, ICU, and maybe local warlords
Nugaal, Bari - Puntland control
Sanaag, Sool - Contested between Somaliland and Puntland, although I think Somaliland currently controls them
Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer - Somaliland control
Jubbada Dhexe and Jubbada Hoose - No idea, still (and I would really like to know)

More details on the ICU move into the Mudug and Galguduud Region: this is a clan-based shifting of loyalties. Basically, the Habar Gedir clan - which, not at all conicidentally, is the clan the leader of the ICU belongs to - is the dominant clan in both regions and thus their shift in loyalty has expanded the ICU's control.
- Note: this brings the ICU closer to the Ogaden...and that is a severe flashpoint for the Ethiopians. This will increase the chances of a bigger war.
- Note 2: however, the same analysis also says that the ICU will have a much harder time expanding further north into non-Habar Gedir Puntland and Somaliland. The three- or four-way division of Somalia postulated before looks more likely...which is still less confusing than the previous mess.

The ICU captured the "central Somalian town of Beletuein [note: source has different spellings than Wikipedia's map in general], a strategically important area near the Ethiopian border. The victory gives the Islamists  greater freedom of movement in the southern part of central Somalia". The BBC (different source) says it's about 300km north of Mogadishu. Err...ooh, a map! Not too far NE of Baidoa, in either Bakool or Hiraan Region...I'm going to guess it's in Hiraan Region, OK? Apparently this move was with popular support in the town.

News from Mudug Region: the ICU is advancing on Galcaio, "just south of the largely autonomous Punland region". The TFG announced they were prepared to defend Puntland against any ICU advance...

...OK, I didn't think the TFG even existed in Mudug. And does this announcement mean the TFG is allying with Puntland? Unlike in Beletuein, residents here are highly divided about the ICU and there were riots between the two sides.

-Aaaand the ICU has taken "Harardhere" (see the bolded part above - Hobyo on the map, I think) in Mudug Region, just like they said they were going to.

-Pro-TFG authorities in Northern Somalia are hunting for ICU clerics...looks like an alliance shift has taken place...

-In Puntland, their police are searching for an ICU cleric who announced the formation of a sharia court in "Las Anood" district...aha! Lasanod in Wiki, the Regional Capital of Sool Region...bloody hell, that's in areas also claimed by Somaliland! The ICU is definitely heading north.

WMS, who digs up this stuff so you don't have to.

*edit, since no one replied and I can get away with it*
-Yes, it was indeed Hobyo that was taken by the ICU. Apparently they surrounded it with "machinegun-carrying pickup trucks" and demanded the town surrender...which it did, no shots being fired. And that confirms that report. Well, kinda - going by the BBC Harardhere is actually a separate port, and the ICU is denying having taken Hobyo. Go look for yourself. Damn, I need a better map to keep track of all this.

Only one event of importance, but important enough for this: the Ethiopians have apparently moved directly into Baidoa to protect the airport there from the ICU. There's been a lot of claims and counter-claims about this.

OK, the BBC has provided a map here and it finally answers a question of mine! Jubbada Dhexe and Jubbada Hoose Regions are shown as allied with the ICU. Mind you, the same map is out of date on the situation in Galguduud and Mudug Regions...

So...
Gedo - TFG/Ethiopian control, no sign of the ICU here yet.
Bay, Bakool - Contested between TFG/Ethiopians and ICU
Banaadir, Shabeellaha Hoose, Shabeellaha Dhexe, Hiraan, Galguduud, Jubbada Dhexe and Jubbada Hoose - ICU control
Mudug - Contested between Puntland, ICU, and maybe local warlords
Nugaal, Bari - Puntland control, although I am beginning to wonder about Nugaal...
Sanaag, Sool - Contested between Somaliland and Puntland, with the ICU making an appearance in Sool.
Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer - Somaliland control

I'll keep the at least one other person reading this thread informed.

*edit*
Look at the TFG's Cabinet Warlords from Kismayo, Baidoa, and Mogadishu - including Hussein Aideed, son (and ex-U.S. Marine) of the infamous Mohammad Farrah Aideed of Black Hawk Down fame, and a representative from Somaliland! Whoa...now, whether the Somaliland representative has anything to do with the Somaliland government is another question...

[WMS]

And just who might that one person reading this thread be?

I have no idea.

I don't think there is one.

to you all!

[WMS]

Ah, I'd seen a short article referring to that elsewhere. Now the $20,000,000 question about the ICU has been and remains this: is this a Somali version of the Taliban or not?

Quite a lot rides on that answer...

[WMS]

*hmm hmm hmm*

*hmm*

*yep, again*

*and again*

*and again*

*UPDATED AGAIN*

*UPDATED*

And for general consumption, here's a map to follow things.

- The ICU has announced plans to extend their control to the Mudug Region (my source inverted the g and the d ) to 'eradicate piracy in Haradere' (and no, I can't find that place on the map either but it was the birthplace of an ex-President of Somalia...in the Obbia district, which I also can't find on the map, but I will make a phonentic guess and say it's Hobyo on the map). The ICU also says they want to establish a shariah court there.
- The ICU has won the support of the Hawiye Clan (remember them from Black Hawk Down? Yep, Aidid's people), who turned over 50 trucks with machineguns in Adaado Township in the Galguduud Region. The ICU has also established a shariah court there. So...the ICU is moving north.

Hmm, I'll just list the regions:
Gedo - TFG/Ethiopian control
Bay, Bakool - Contested between TFG/Ethiopians and ICU
Banaadir, Shabeellaha Hoose, Shabeellaha Dhexe, Hiraan, Galguduud - ICU control
Mudug - Contested between Puntland, ICU, and maybe local warlords
Nugaal, Bari - Puntland control
Sanaag, Sool - Contested between Somaliland and Puntland, although I think Somaliland currently controls them
Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer - Somaliland control
Jubbada Dhexe and Jubbada Hoose - No idea, still (and I would really like to know)

More details on the ICU move into the Mudug and Galguduud Region: this is a clan-based shifting of loyalties. Basically, the Habar Gedir clan - which, not at all conicidentally, is the clan the leader of the ICU belongs to - is the dominant clan in both regions and thus their shift in loyalty has expanded the ICU's control.
- Note: this brings the ICU closer to the Ogaden...and that is a severe flashpoint for the Ethiopians. This will increase the chances of a bigger war.
- Note 2: however, the same analysis also says that the ICU will have a much harder time expanding further north into non-Habar Gedir Puntland and Somaliland. The three- or four-way division of Somalia postulated before looks more likely...which is still less confusing than the previous mess.

The ICU captured the "central Somalian town of Beletuein [note: source has different spellings than Wikipedia's map in general], a strategically important area near the Ethiopian border. The victory gives the Islamists  greater freedom of movement in the southern part of central Somalia". The BBC (different source) says it's about 300km north of Mogadishu. Err...ooh, a map! Not too far NE of Baidoa, in either Bakool or Hiraan Region...I'm going to guess it's in Hiraan Region, OK? Apparently this move was with popular support in the town.

News from Mudug Region: the ICU is advancing on Galcaio, "just south of the largely autonomous Punland region". The TFG announced they were prepared to defend Puntland against any ICU advance...

...OK, I didn't think the TFG even existed in Mudug. And does this announcement mean the TFG is allying with Puntland? Unlike in Beletuein, residents here are highly divided about the ICU and there were riots between the two sides.

-Aaaand the ICU has taken "Harardhere" (see the bolded part above - Hobyo on the map, I think) in Mudug Region, just like they said they were going to.

-Pro-TFG authorities in Northern Somalia are hunting for ICU clerics...looks like an alliance shift has taken place...

-In Puntland, their police are searching for an ICU cleric who announced the formation of a sharia court in "Las Anood" district...aha! Lasanod in Wiki, the Regional Capital of Sool Region...bloody hell, that's in areas also claimed by Somaliland! The ICU is definitely heading north.

-Yes, it was indeed Hobyo that was taken by the ICU. Apparently they surrounded it with "machinegun-carrying pickup trucks" and demanded the town surrender...which it did, no shots being fired. And that confirms that report. Well, kinda - going by the BBC Harardhere is actually a separate port, and the ICU is denying having taken Hobyo. Go look for yourself. Damn, I need a better map to keep track of all this.

Only one event of importance, but important enough for this: the Ethiopians have apparently moved directly into Baidoa to protect the airport there from the ICU. There's been a lot of claims and counter-claims about this.

OK, the BBC has provided a map here and it finally answers a question of mine! Jubbada Dhexe and Jubbada Hoose Regions are shown as allied with the ICU. Mind you, the same map is out of date on the situation in Galguduud and Mudug Regions...

So...
Gedo - TFG/Ethiopian control, no sign of the ICU here yet.
Bay, Bakool - Contested between TFG/Ethiopians and ICU
Banaadir, Shabeellaha Hoose, Shabeellaha Dhexe, Hiraan, Galguduud, Jubbada Dhexe and Jubbada Hoose - ICU control
Mudug - Contested between Puntland, ICU, and maybe local warlords
Nugaal, Bari - Puntland control, although I am beginning to wonder about Nugaal...
Sanaag, Sool - Contested between Somaliland and Puntland, with the ICU making an appearance in Sool.
Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer - Somaliland control

*edit*
Look at the TFG's Cabinet Warlords from Kismayo, Baidoa, and Mogadishu - including Hussein Aideed, son (and ex-U.S. Marine) of the infamous Mohammad Farrah Aideed of Black Hawk Down fame, and a representative from Somaliland! Whoa...now, whether the Somaliland representative has anything to do with the Somaliland government is another question...

OK, from yet another source...
"August 23, 2006: Fearing an Islamic Courts threat to its southern regions,
secessionist Puntland has sought assistance from Ethiopia, already lending a hand, and troops, to back the Somali Transitional Federal Government in Baidoa. Ethiopian troops have been quietly moving into southern Puntland. "

Aaaaaand here we go, another battlefront is developing, as hinted at in all those parts I bolded in the earlier posts. The presence of Ethiopian troops in Puntland is, however, a new development.

[WMS]

You see, Puntland is so weak they need help from Ethiopia.  Somaliland needs no such help

EDIT: To the $20,000,000 question: They sound more like a new Hezbollah to me... call the evil westernist imperialist capitalists and their ways evil, while simultanously doing some good (e.g. creating stability, arresting those pirates) to become beloved by the common people.  But that's just a guess

Damn straight.

Hmm...interesting idea...

[WMS]

You see, Puntland is so weak they need help from Ethiopia.  Somaliland needs no such help

EDIT: To the $20,000,000 question: They sound more like a new Hezbollah to me... call the evil westernist imperialist capitalists and their ways evil, while simultanously doing some good (e.g. creating stability, arresting those pirates) to become beloved by the common people.  But that's just a guess

Damn straight.

Hmm...interesting idea...

Problem is, the Taliban did all that as well. They just did a couple of things extra that were not quite so cool...

Bringing us back to my $20,000,000 question... and no, nothing new really to report...

[WMS]

*pause*

*hmm hmm hmm*

*hmm*

*yep, again*

*and again*

*and again*

*UPDATED AGAIN*

*UPDATED*

And for general consumption, here's a map to follow things.

- The ICU has announced plans to extend their control to the Mudug Region (my source inverted the g and the d ) to 'eradicate piracy in Haradere' (and no, I can't find that place on the map either but it was the birthplace of an ex-President of Somalia...in the Obbia district, which I also can't find on the map, but I will make a phonentic guess and say it's Hobyo on the map). The ICU also says they want to establish a shariah court there.
- The ICU has won the support of the Hawiye Clan (remember them from Black Hawk Down? Yep, Aidid's people), who turned over 50 trucks with machineguns in Adaado Township in the Galguduud Region. The ICU has also established a shariah court there. So...the ICU is moving north.

Hmm, I'll just list the regions:
Gedo - TFG/Ethiopian control
Bay, Bakool - Contested between TFG/Ethiopians and ICU
Banaadir, Shabeellaha Hoose, Shabeellaha Dhexe, Hiraan, Galguduud - ICU control
Mudug - Contested between Puntland, ICU, and maybe local warlords
Nugaal, Bari - Puntland control
Sanaag, Sool - Contested between Somaliland and Puntland, although I think Somaliland currently controls them
Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer - Somaliland control
Jubbada Dhexe and Jubbada Hoose - No idea, still (and I would really like to know)

More details on the ICU move into the Mudug and Galguduud Region: this is a clan-based shifting of loyalties. Basically, the Habar Gedir clan - which, not at all conicidentally, is the clan the leader of the ICU belongs to - is the dominant clan in both regions and thus their shift in loyalty has expanded the ICU's control.
- Note: this brings the ICU closer to the Ogaden...and that is a severe flashpoint for the Ethiopians. This will increase the chances of a bigger war.
- Note 2: however, the same analysis also says that the ICU will have a much harder time expanding further north into non-Habar Gedir Puntland and Somaliland. The three- or four-way division of Somalia postulated before looks more likely...which is still less confusing than the previous mess.

The ICU captured the "central Somalian town of Beletuein [note: source has different spellings than Wikipedia's map in general], a strategically important area near the Ethiopian border. The victory gives the Islamists  greater freedom of movement in the southern part of central Somalia". The BBC (different source) says it's about 300km north of Mogadishu. Err...ooh, a map! Not too far NE of Baidoa, in either Bakool or Hiraan Region...I'm going to guess it's in Hiraan Region, OK? Apparently this move was with popular support in the town.

News from Mudug Region: the ICU is advancing on Galcaio, "just south of the largely autonomous Punland region". The TFG announced they were prepared to defend Puntland against any ICU advance...

...OK, I didn't think the TFG even existed in Mudug. And does this announcement mean the TFG is allying with Puntland? Unlike in Beletuein, residents here are highly divided about the ICU and there were riots between the two sides.

-Aaaand the ICU has taken "Harardhere" (see the bolded part above - Hobyo on the map, I think) in Mudug Region, just like they said they were going to.

-Pro-TFG authorities in Northern Somalia are hunting for ICU clerics...looks like an alliance shift has taken place...

-In Puntland, their police are searching for an ICU cleric who announced the formation of a sharia court in "Las Anood" district...aha! Lasanod in Wiki, the Regional Capital of Sool Region...bloody hell, that's in areas also claimed by Somaliland! The ICU is definitely heading north.

-Yes, it was indeed Hobyo that was taken by the ICU. Apparently they surrounded it with "machinegun-carrying pickup trucks" and demanded the town surrender...which it did, no shots being fired. And that confirms that report. Well, kinda - going by the BBC Harardhere is actually a separate port, and the ICU is denying having taken Hobyo. Go look for yourself. Damn, I need a better map to keep track of all this.

Only one event of importance, but important enough for this: the Ethiopians have apparently moved directly into Baidoa to protect the airport there from the ICU. There's been a lot of claims and counter-claims about this.

OK, the BBC has provided a map here and it finally answers a question of mine! Jubbada Dhexe and Jubbada Hoose Regions are shown as allied with the ICU. Mind you, the same map is out of date on the situation in Galguduud and Mudug Regions...

So...
Gedo - TFG/Ethiopian control, no sign of the ICU here yet.
Bay, Bakool - Contested between TFG/Ethiopians and ICU
Banaadir, Shabeellaha Hoose, Shabeellaha Dhexe, Hiraan, Galguduud, Jubbada Dhexe and Jubbada Hoose - ICU control
Mudug - Contested between Puntland, ICU, and maybe local warlords
Nugaal, Bari - Puntland control, although I am beginning to wonder about Nugaal...
Sanaag, Sool - Contested between Somaliland and Puntland, with the ICU making an appearance in Sool.
Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer - Somaliland control

*edit*
Look at the TFG's Cabinet Warlords from Kismayo, Baidoa, and Mogadishu - including Hussein Aideed, son (and ex-U.S. Marine) of the infamous Mohammad Farrah Aideed of Black Hawk Down fame, and a representative from Somaliland! Whoa...now, whether the Somaliland representative has anything to do with the Somaliland government is another question...

OK, from yet another source...
"August 23, 2006: Fearing an Islamic Courts threat to its southern regions,
secessionist Puntland has sought assistance from Ethiopia, already lending a hand, and troops, to back the Somali Transitional Federal Government in Baidoa. Ethiopian troops have been quietly moving into southern Puntland. "

Aaaaaand here we go, another battlefront is developing, as hinted at in all those parts I bolded in the earlier posts. The presence of Ethiopian troops in Puntland is, however, a new development.

OK, first off, the ICU threatened the Ethiopians with war if they didn't withdraw their troops from Somalia (back on the 25th, I think). The question is, do they have enough strength to push the Ethiopians out? This question was posed in an analytical article I read, and the conclusion was that the ICU is at a cross-roads - consolidate what they have taken so far or attack Baidoa? At the moment, neither the ICU nor the Ethiopians have the power to push past their current positions, but the ICU might choose to try and increase its power by gaining the support of the merchants and citizenry by opening the port of Mogadishu and enabling trade goods and aid to flow through it...that appears to be happening. Also, the ICU is reported to be running a training camp outside Jowhar, with foreign trainers...yep, from Islamic countries. Now, the ICU probably wants to train their own people there, but that doesn't mean it couldn't be used as an international jihadist base as well...which is a very big question mark hovering over the situation there.

Oh, and the ICU appears to be banning NGOs. Nice.

[WMS]

*massive snipping for space*

And for general consumption, here's a map to follow things.
...
So...
Gedo - TFG/Ethiopian control, no sign of the ICU here yet.
Bay, Bakool - Contested between TFG/Ethiopians and ICU
Banaadir, Shabeellaha Hoose, Shabeellaha Dhexe, Hiraan, Galguduud, Jubbada Dhexe and Jubbada Hoose - ICU control
Mudug - Contested between Puntland, ICU, and maybe local warlords
Nugaal, Bari - Puntland control, although I am beginning to wonder about Nugaal...
Sanaag, Sool - Contested between Somaliland and Puntland, with the ICU making an appearance in Sool.
Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer - Somaliland control

Not much new on the battlefront, but lots of negotiations between the ICU and TFG...maybe they agreed to unify, maybe not, maybe they agreed to kick the Ethiopians out, maybe not. The ICU is opposed to the sending of foreign peacekeepers...maybe even to the point of threatening jihad.

Which foreign peacekeepers? See here.

From Strategypage: (I'll get more updated information from here when I get it...the site is banned from work )
"SOMALIA:  Partition
August 31, 2006: The Islamic Courts are trying to move into the separatist Puntland region. In recent weeks the Puntland government has exiled or jailed scores of clerics who have entered the region preaching the need for people to accept Islamic law, and rule by the Islamic Courts.

Puntland has already asked for-and apparently received-military support from Ethiopia. This has prompted Eritrea, which is engaged in cold war with Ethiopia, to ship equipment to the Islamic Courts, perhaps as a way of opening a new "front" in its confrontation with Ethiopia.

Meanwhile, the Islamic Courts has begun cracking down on piracy and smuggling. Aside from trying to block the import of luxury goods and items prohibited by Islamic law, such as booze, the Islamic Courts wants to stop the export of charcoal and exotic animals, which many religious leaders argue are degrading the already fragile environment. The Islamic Courts has also called for an end to piracy. These measures may create problems. Some of the tribal and warlord militias that have provided it with the muscle with which to seize control of most of central and southern Somalia are deeply involved in these lucrative activities, and may decide to withdraw their support for the Islamic Courts.

August 30, 2006: Ethiopia reported that the Ethiopian peacekeeping contingent in Burundi had moved back to Ethiopia. Ethiopia had kept a small peacekeeping force in Burundi since 2003 as part of the international peacekeeping force organized to support the peace agreement that began the process of ending Burundi's civil war.

Eritrean government representatives met with representatives from the government of Djibouti to discuss the situation in Somalia. An Eritrean spokesman said that Ethiopian troops were in Somalia.

August 29, 2006: Ethiopian troops are deployed between the Ethiopian border and the Somali town of Baidoa (seat of Somalia's transitional federal government). Ethiopia only admits that is has "trainers" working with the Somali transitional federal government. A spokesman for Somalia's Puntland region (a semi-autonomous area in Somalia) said the 250 Ethiopian military trainers are in the town of Galkayo. The trainers are working with Puntland's local security forces.

Kenyan and Ethiopian government representatives issued a statement that said Kenya and Ethiopia support the formation of a "peace operation" in Somalia to "safeguard" political gains made by Somalia. If that sounds like code language for protecting the Somali transitional federal government, well, it is.

August 28, 2006: The Islamic Courts and the transitional government have agreed to resume peace talks in Sudan on September 2nd. Despite much posturing, the Islamic Courts apparently do not want to go to war with Ethiopia, which is supporting the transitional government. At the moment, Somalia is, in effect, partitioned into four separate entities. In the north there are the unrecognized states of Puntland and Somaliland, which organized functioning governments in the late 1990s. But now, the Islamic Courts have taken control of most of the southern Somalia, leaving the transitional government with parts of central Somalia.

August 26, 2006: Somalia's transitional federal government accused Eritrea of shipping arms to Somalia's Islamic Courts militia. The Somali government also claimed (without substantiation) that 1500 Eritrean troops had boarded three ships in the Eritrea port of Massawa and that one of the ships was currently docked at a port north of Mogadishu. The report did not provide further details. The accusation of actual Eritrean troop involvement in Somalia, however, is telling. In many ways, the Ethiopian-Eritrean war had moved from the disputed Ethiopia-Eritrea border region to Somalia."

And a note from me: Ethiopia conducts a lot of trade through the ports in Somaliland, given that trade through Eritrea is blocked and Djibouti loves to charge them a ton for use of their ports. This gives Ethiopia a very strong economic incentive to support Somaliland against the ICU, and I suppose ikncreases their desire to use Puntland as a buffer. I would also like to point out how countries in the region appear to be taking sides...

[WMS]

*massive snipping for space, again*

And for general consumption, here's a map to follow things.
...
So...
Gedo - TFG/Ethiopian control, no sign of the ICU here yet.
Bay, Bakool - Contested between TFG/Ethiopians and ICU
Banaadir, Shabeellaha Hoose, Shabeellaha Dhexe, Hiraan, Galguduud, Jubbada Dhexe and Jubbada Hoose - ICU control
Mudug - Contested between Puntland, ICU, and maybe local warlords
Nugaal, Bari - Puntland control, although I am beginning to wonder about Nugaal...
Sanaag, Sool - Contested between Somaliland and Puntland, with the ICU making an appearance in Sool.
Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer - Somaliland control

I knew StrategyPage wouldn't let me down regardless of ideological leanings, they cover everything military or war-related. I quoted the whole set because I think it gives a good overall survey of the situation...bolded parts are my emphasis...

"September 7, 2006: Some Puntland factions want to work with the Islamic Courts. These are the same factions that are inclined towards reunification with Somalia, and are angry at what they perceive as government corruption.

Meanwhile, popular opposition to the Islamic Courts is growing. This is mainly because the more radical of the Islamic Courts leaders have been allowed to use their gunmen to enforce strict rules of "Islamic" behavior. For example, movie theaters, videos, television and music have been outlawed in Mogadishu (and some other towns where the Islamic radicals have sufficient influence.) Women are being forced to curb their movements and cover up. Somali women traditionally have a lot of freedom of action, responsibility, and economic power. The crackdown of the Islamic conservatives [not in what was emailed to me, but probably "is a threat to traditional Somali female freedoms."]

September 6, 2006: While Ethiopia and Kenya are willing to send peacekeepers to Somalia, that is opposed by of Djibouti, Eritrea, Sudan and Uganda, as well as the Islamic Courts and former members of the Somali armed forces. But the transitional government has long backed a peacekeeping force. The peacekeeper issue again, as it did in Sudan, comes down to a tug-of-war between the African Union/UN/West, and the Arab Union/Islamic Conservatives.

September 5, 2006: For the first time in over a decade, Mogadishu's port received a relief shipment.  The reopening of the port makes it a lot easier, and cheaper, to get food, and other, aid, into the country.

September 4, 2006: The Islamic Courts and transitional government have agreed to form a joint military force. However, no dates were specified, and the peace talks were adjourned until October 30th. A lot can happen between now and then."

OK...we have a possible civil war inside Puntland between pro- and anti-ICU factions...foreign interference with the role of Somali women...a regional schism developing over Somalia...and supposed diplomacy in the meanwhile. Damn, this could get even messier...

[WMS]

*snip*

And for general consumption, here's a map to follow things.
...
So...
Gedo - TFG/Ethiopian control, no sign of the ICU here yet.
Bay, Bakool - Contested between TFG/Ethiopians and ICU
Banaadir, Shabeellaha Hoose, Shabeellaha Dhexe, Hiraan, Galguduud, Jubbada Dhexe and Jubbada Hoose - ICU control
Mudug - Contested between Puntland, ICU, and maybe local warlords
Nugaal, Bari - Puntland control, although I am beginning to wonder about Nugaal...
Sanaag, Sool - Contested between Somaliland and Puntland, with the ICU making an appearance in Sool.
Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer - Somaliland control

OK, the big news from multiple sources is that the African Union has agreed to send 8000 troops to Somalia, despite ICU opposition. That could get very messy.

From the same article: "The interim government has the support of the UN, but it controls only a small area of the country around its base in Baidoa, about 250km from the capital and a powerful local warlord has ordered them to leave." I wonder which warlord that is...

Other news: the TFG accused the ICU of moving to capture Kismayo (which I thought they had...hmm, maybe a switch from "allied" to "controlled" is in order) and the ICU denied that.

[WMS]

And for general consumption, here's a map to follow things.
...
So...
Gedo - TFG/Ethiopian control, no sign of the ICU here yet.
Bay, Bakool - Contested between TFG/Ethiopians and ICU
Banaadir, Shabeellaha Hoose, Shabeellaha Dhexe, Hiraan, Galguduud - ICU control
Jubbada Dhexe and Jubbada Hoose - Contested between ICU and the Juba Valley Alliance, the local power there. This is new...
Mudug - Contested between Puntland, ICU, and maybe local warlords.
Nugaal, Bari - Puntland control, although I am beginning to wonder about Nugaal...
Sanaag, Sool - Contested between Somaliland and Puntland, with the ICU making an appearance in Sool.
Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer - Somaliland control

[snip]
Other news: the TFG accused the ICU of moving to capture Kismayo (which I thought they had...hmm, maybe a switch from "allied" to "controlled" is in order) and the ICU denied that.

In recent days - around Sept. 18 -, there was an attempt to assassinate the President of the TFG via suicide bomber. The TFG blamed jihadists for certain and maybe the ICU. The ICU blamed the Ethiopians (come on, that doesn't even make sense... ). This pretty much ended the peace negotiations that were going on between the ICU and the TFG.

But the bigger news follows the bolded section in the quote above.

The ICU is advancing on Kismayo/Chisimayu after all - in order to close the border with Kenya and prevent foreign peacekeepers from entering...ostensibly, although the African Union was highly unlikely to actually assemble a force due to cost - but more likely to gain more territory and also to prevent the TFG from reaming, and the Juba Valley Alliance (hey, they are still around after all...), under "interim Defense Minister Col. Abdikadir Adan Shire, a warlord better known as Barre Hiraale", is intending to resist them. This also appears to violate an agreement between the ICU and TFG to 'stop military expansion in the Horn of Africa'. Oh, and the U.S. appears to be adopting a neutral stance on the ICU - TFG war.

More news whenever I get it...

[WMS]

*edit*

And for general consumption, here's a map to follow things. New Map on Wiki! Here. Good depiction of Regional control by the factions.
...
So...
Gedo - TFG/Ethiopian control, no sign of the ICU here yet.
Bay, Bakool - Contested between TFG/Ethiopians and ICU
Jubbada Dhexe - Contested between the Juba Valley Alliance and the ICU (see the Wiki Map). The BBC Map however, says the ICU controls all of it (yet not the Mudug portion along the coast...hmm). Not sure...
Banaadir, Shabeellaha Hoose, Shabeellaha Dhexe, Hiraan, Galguduud, and Jubbada Hoose - ICU control
Mudug - Contested between Puntland, ICU, and maybe local warlords.
Nugaal, Bari - Puntland control, although I am beginning to wonder about Nugaal...
Sanaag, Sool - Contested between Somaliland and Puntland, with the ICU making an appearance in Sool.
Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer - Somaliland control

Well, that was quick. The ICU swooped in and captured Kismaayo/Chisimayu on, let's see, ah, yes, shortly after my last post on Sept. 22. Then they fired on anti-ICU demonstrators there. Lovely. There have been more demonstrators, and more firings on them, since then.

This appears to have triggered the movement of "several hundred" Ethiopian troops to Baidoa to defend the TFG (yeah, yeah, Ethiopia officially denied it but seriously now...), which the ICU called a declaration of war. Now, it is very likely that Ethiopia will decide to defend the TFG because they need them as a buffer to keep the ICU from trying to get the Ogaden Region inside Ethiopia (but populated by Somalis).

Sidenote: the other option is for the Ethiopians to cut a deal with the ICU, which would collapse the TFG, and the TFG's Interim President would, it is described, flee northward to Galcaio and past that into Puntland, "beyond a line separating the Hawiye and Darood clans." This might help you all visualize that.

Oh, and there is a report - I'm not going to say confirmed yet - that the Ugandans have also sent troops to Baidoa, but for peacekeeping purposes, not to engage in fighting. Good luck with that.

[WMS]

*edit*

And for general consumption, here's a map to follow things. New Map on Wiki! Here. Good depiction of Regional control by the factions.
...
So...
Gedo - TFG/Ethiopian control, no sign of the ICU here yet.
Bay, Bakool - Contested between TFG/Ethiopians and ICU
Jubbada Dhexe - Contested between the Juba Valley Alliance and the ICU (see the Wiki Map). The BBC Map however, says the ICU controls all of it (yet not the Mudug portion along the coast...hmm). Not sure...
Banaadir, Shabeellaha Hoose, Shabeellaha Dhexe, Hiraan, Galguduud, and Jubbada Hoose - ICU control
Mudug - Contested between Puntland, ICU, and maybe local warlords.
Nugaal, Bari - Puntland control, although I am beginning to wonder about Nugaal...
Sanaag, Sool - Contested between Somaliland and Puntland, with the ICU making an appearance in Sool.
Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer - Somaliland control

Well, that was quick. The ICU swooped in and captured Kismaayo/Chisimayu on, let's see, ah, yes, shortly after my last post on Sept. 22. Then they fired on anti-ICU demonstrators there. Lovely. There have been more demonstrators, and more firings on them, since then.

This appears to have triggered the movement of "several hundred" Ethiopian troops to Baidoa to defend the TFG (yeah, yeah, Ethiopia officially denied it but seriously now...), which the ICU called a declaration of war. Now, it is very likely that Ethiopia will decide to defend the TFG because they need them as a buffer to keep the ICU from trying to get the Ogaden Region inside Ethiopia (but populated by Somalis).

Sidenote: the other option is for the Ethiopians to cut a deal with the ICU, which would collapse the TFG, and the TFG's Interim President would, it is described, flee northward to Galcaio and past that into Puntland, "beyond a line separating the Hawiye and Darood clans." This might help you all visualize that.

Oh, and there is a report - I'm not going to say confirmed yet - that the Ugandans have also sent troops to Baidoa, but for peacekeeping purposes, not to engage in fighting. Good luck with that.

Some more bits...

First, more on the Ugandans. The analysis I read indicated that yes, the Ugandans are moving to contain the ICU (which isn't the ICU - more on that in a sec) and that in order to support their troops in Baidoa, they are going to need to control of an overland supply route...and the Somalian city of Baardheere in the SE corner of Gedo Region will be absolutely vital. You see, with the ICU capture of Kismayo, the Ugandans can't supply by sea, and air supply is the province of the industrialized world. So, expect some major battles between the Islamists and the Ugandans. Now, as to why Uganda is getting involved, it is to prevent the ICU from supporting one of their rebel groups, the Allied Democratic Front, which has some Islamist ties, apparently.

The Kenyans have sent troops to someplace called Kiunga on the border with Somalia to monitor the new batch of 25,000 refugees coming across the border...

The ICU - err, actually, they are now the Supreme Islamic Courts Council (SICC) - closed the offices of a radio station in Kismayo on accusations of broadcasting false information about the SICC and its conquest of Kismayo...six of one, half a dozen of the other by all accounts...the radio station (HornAfrik FTR) was linked to the TFG, but closing it down is authoritarian regardless.

Oh, the SICC announced their militias will unite into one army with no clan or ideological divisions. Easier said than done, although if they pull it off they become significantly more powerful.

Meanwhile, the TFG's Prime Minister announced that troops from Ethiopia and Kenya are on alert and will help the TFG if the SICC attacks them. The important note here is the appearance of the Kenyans on the side of the TFG.

And the SICC apparently took someplace called Jawill, "10 miles from the Ethiopian border", on Sept. 30 after "defeating a pro-government militia there". I have no idea what Region it is in, although my guesses would be one of Bakool, Hiraan, Galguduud, or Mudug Region...leaning toward Bakool or Hiraan...

[WMS]

And for general consumption, here's a map to follow things. New Map on Wiki! Here. Good depiction of Regional control by the factions.
...
So...
Gedo - TFG/Ethiopian control, no sign of the SICC here yet.
Bay, Bakool - Contested between TFG/Ethiopians and SICC
Jubbada Dhexe - Contested between the Juba Valley Alliance and the SICC (see the Wiki Map). The BBC Map however, says the SICC controls all of it (yet not the Mudug portion along the coast...hmm). Not sure...
Banaadir, Shabeellaha Hoose, Shabeellaha Dhexe, Hiraan, Galguduud, and Jubbada Hoose - SICC control
Mudug - Contested between Puntland, SICCU, and maybe local warlords.
Nugaal, Bari - Puntland control, although I am beginning to wonder about Nugaal...
Sanaag, Sool - Contested between Somaliland and Puntland, with the SICC making an appearance in Sool.
Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer - Somaliland control

Meanwhile, the TFG's Prime Minister announced that troops from Ethiopia and Kenya are on alert and will help the TFG if the SICC attacks them. The important note here is the appearance of the Kenyans on the side of the TFG.

Bi-weekly update...

Starting with the item in bold above, it apears the Ethiopian presence has caused another split in the TFG, with 36 legislators switching sides to the SICC. Not sure how much influence they had.

The Juba Valley Alliance said they had a deal with the TFG to retake Kismayo...the TFG wouldn't say anything about it. Meanwhile, there were more protests in Kismayo, this time anti-Ethiopian and anti-foreign intervention ones. Staged by the SICC? Genuine? Some of both, I suspect.

The Kenyans are increasing their anti-terrorist and anti-insurgency officer training in response to recent events. They are worried about the SICC, clearly...

Apparently, the Ethiopians are shelling SICC positions around Beledweyne, in Hiraan Region. The SICC took that back in June. Perhaps the Ethiopians are putting pressure on the SICC here to draw them away from Baidoa?

From another source...
"September 30, 2006: Islamic Courts gunmen put down protests by angry civilians in the southern port of Kismayo. Several civilians were shot, and many more arrested. Kismayo was a pretty peaceful place, but the local  religious leaders were of the more traditional, and moderate, type common in Somalia. The Islamic Courts practice a more conservative form of Islam (imported from, and subsidized by, Saudi Arabia).

A key village in the west, controlling one of the few roads from Ethiopia, was seized by Islamic Courts gunmen, after a brief battle with fighters loyal to the Transitional Government. At least four died in the fighting."

The point about Kismayo is interesting, and the bolded part...matches the bit about Jawill from before. So it's in the west, is it? Hmm...Bakool or Hiraan is looking like a better guess all the time. Maybe even Gedo...

And from the BBC..NOOOOOOOO! Stay away from Somaliland, you bastards!