Turnout as a percentage of the total Mid-2012 population

[Tender Branson]

Here's the chart I made (will create another one when the Mid-2012 voting age population is released by the Census Bureau in late January):

[Tender Branson]

Once the Mid-2012 state estimates are out for the voting-age crowd (18+), I will then use the American Community Survey 2011 data for 18+ citizenship in each state and also the American Community Survey 2010 data and project the non-citizen population aged 18+ to Mid-2012, to get a better turnout picture. Of course waiting for the ACS 2012 data to be released would be better, but that won't happen until next October or November.

[Tender Branson]

I can already estimate that the Mid-2012 VAP was about 76.5% of the total population of 313.914.000, because the Mid-2010 VAP was 76.03% and the Mid-2011 VAP was 76.27%.

This means that on July 1, 2012 about 240.144.000 people were aged 18+

According to the ACS 2011, about 8.5% of 18+ people were non-citizens, down from 8.6% in the ACS 2010. So, it's likely that there were about 8.4% non-citizens in Mid-2012 among the 18+ people.

240.144.000 x 0.916 = 219.972.000 VAP who were also citizens

Of course the numbers would be higher using Nov. 6 numbers instead of July 1, 2012 numbers.

Also, overseas voters are outweighing imprisoned people, upping the number of eligible voters.

So, it can be said that the 2012 turnout was ca. 58% US-wide on November 6.

[Tender Branson]

Why does a lot of the red states tend to have lower turnouts?

The chart above is not reflecting actual turnout, only turnout as a %age of the total population.

A lot of "red states" like UT and TX have a very young population (in the case of UT about 1/3 of the population is younger than 18) and also have a high non-citizen population.

Therefore their turnout is much higher when this is factored in.

On the other hand, states like VT, where the population is rather old and "American", will fall back in the ranking when the VEP is considered.

[Tender Branson]

The Mid-2012 VAP (voting-age-population) estimates will be released by the Census Bureau on Thursday already:

http://www.calendarwiz.com/calendars/day.php?month=1&day=3&year=2013&crd=cens1sample&

So, we'll have more accurate turnout figures then, when I calculate the rates for every state.

[Tender Branson]

Here's a more accurate turnout calculation for the US:

The November 6 population in the US was 314.775.000 (I calculated this using the monthly population estimates from Nov. 1 and Dec. 1)

On November 6, about 76.6% of the US population was older than 18 (calculated by using the Mid-2011 numbers (76.27%) and the Mid-2010 numbers (76.03%) and projecting it to Nov. 6)

On November 6, about 8.4 to 8.5% of the voting-age-population was non-citizen, according to the American Community Surveys 2010 and 2011.

...

So: 314.775.000 x 0,766 = 241.118.000 VAP x 0,9155 = 220.744.000 VEP

220.744.000 / 129.133.000 = 58.5% total turnout

...

Of course, we would also have to factor in people in prison and on parole who cannot vote and overseas Americans who are eligible, but nobody actually knows how many there are, because the statistics are either outdated or just not available.

[Tender Branson]

So is that higher or lower than 2004, after all?

Using the intercensal age estimates and the 2000 Census data on citizenship, as well as the 2005 and 2008/2009 American Community Survey Data for Citizenship, and projecting them to early November of each election year, the results are:

2000 VAP: 210.626.000 -> 18+ non-citizens: 7.70% -> VEP: 194.408.000 -> Turnout: 54.22%
2004 VAP: 220.338.000 -> 18+ non-citizens: 8.40% -> VEP: 201.830.000 -> Turnout: 60.59%
2008 VAP: 230.879.000 -> 18+ non-citizens: 8.40% -> VEP: 211.485.000 -> Turnout: 62.09%
2012 VAP: 241.118.000 -> 18+ non-citizens: 8.40% -> VEP: 220.864.000 -> Turnout: 58.47%

http://www.census.gov/popest/data/intercensal/national/nat2010.html

Important notes: The 2000 Census showed that 7.6% of 18+ Americans were non-citizens, the 2005 ACS (the first one) showed 8.5% and the 2008 and 2009 ACS showed 8.4% each. The 2010 ACS showed 8.6% and the 2011 ACS showed 8.5%, so we can assume that the 2012 ACS will show 8.4% non-citizens.

I used the Wikipedia election totals for the 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2012 election results.

[Tender Branson]

Wait for my numbers that I will calculate on Thursday, when the CB will release the voting-age-population for 2012.

They will be more accurate and up-to-date than the numbers above from the USAToday.

[Tender Branson]

Today, the Census Bureau has released the 18+ population for all states on July 1, 2012:

United States: 313.914.040 - 240.185.952 - 76.5%

http://www.census.gov/popest/data/state/asrh/2012/files/SCPRC-EST2012-18+POP-RES.csv

Exactly the same percentage I estimated a few days ago, but just with slightly different total numbers:

I can already estimate that the Mid-2012 VAP was about 76.5% of the total population of 313.914.000, because the Mid-2010 VAP was 76.03% and the Mid-2011 VAP was 76.27%.

This means that on July 1, 2012 about 240.144.000 people were aged 18+

[Tender Branson]

With the 18+ figures out for every state, I will now first calculate the turnout as a percentage of the VAP, using these new numbers.

Then I will calculate the VEP (using the 18+ non-citizen data for each state from the 2011 American Community Survey) to get an even better turnout picture for every state.

[Tender Branson]

With the 18+ figures out for every state, I will now first calculate the turnout as a percentage of the VAP, using these new numbers.

This is the chart (green = swing states):

[Tender Branson]

Then I will calculate the VEP (using the 18+ non-citizen data for each state from the 2011 American Community Survey) to get an even better turnout picture for every state.

(right click with your mouse to get bigger picture)

[Tender Branson]

The Excel formula for calculating the VEP for each state is pretty cool too:

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[Tender Branson]

Turnout map: