Shufford1
Newbie
Posts: 1
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« on: September 15, 2016, 02:42:28 PM » |
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As a native and resident of Watauga County, NC, it seems like a terrible choice as a bellwether. Using PVI and the fact that it went for Obama in 2008 and Romney 2012 ignores the county's unique demographic dynamics. The county skews incredibly young and incredibly white. College students make up around a third of population. Clinton clearly isn't inspiring the youth turnout like Obama. If you remove college students from the equation, the county is probably near 99% white. I will also note that the local GOP has been active in suppressing the youth vote by attempting to limit early voting and closing polling sites on the campus of Appalachian State. I could easily see a situation in which the county trends R, but the state of North Carolina trends D.
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